The 2021 Longshot Thread

150g Friday WHO DARES WINS 20/1 ran in the goodwood cup last year and is now 6lb lower.
Holly takes over from Tom Marquand.
 
Outsider said:
150g Friday WHO DARES WINS 20/1 ran in the goodwood cup last year and is now 6lb lower.
Holly takes over from Tom Marquand.
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Same race - Themaxwecan 50/1, 5pl - top-rated on my figures, a course winner and James Doyle booked. Worth a small pop.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two ante-post longshots for one of my favourite races - the Golden Mile at Goodwood:

First up, Path Of Thunder 25/1 - will carry a 3lb penalty and we'll find out in the morning just how well in he might be but he was a smart-looking winner the other day and is already 14s in quite a few places. I reckon it will be at least a 7lb hike (ergo 4lbs well in) but it could be as much as 10lbs.

Next up, Beat Le Bon 25/1 - can run off the same mark as when winning the race two years ago and caught my eye in the Hunt Cup. He was well beaten in absolute terms but was second to the runaway winner on the far side and about six lengths clear of the third. If he's back to his very best he's on a winning mark.
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Path Of Thunder into 4/1 fav :blink:. Wasn't expecting that but won't complain :cool:

Hannon's only runner now is Qaysar 25/1 so I'll be backing him as well, despite the draw. Sickness insurance.
 
6.45 Galway E/W

Tudor City - Martin had a big priced runner run well on Monday - 25/1
Hannon - Gibney's are in decent form, and think he is overpriced on back form - 40/1

Places best, most likely.
 
Galway Hurdle
Eclair de Beaufeu clearly comes with risks attached as he’s run some stinkers in the past but has the ability to go well if things fall into place and worth a small each way bet at 40/1 with Bet365 (more places available elsewhere but only 25/1)


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1:50 Goodwood

Two against the field at prices.

Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Path Of Thunder into 4/1 fav :blink:. Wasn't expecting that but won't complain :cool:

Hannon's only runner now is Qaysar 25/1 so I'll be backing him as well, despite the draw. Sickness insurance.
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POT now 11/4 and 5/2. That's a helluva move. I might lay off for a no-risk interest.

I've also gone in again on Qaysar at 50/1 to six places. I'd be kicking myself if I didn't have the BOG and it won (or even placed) at that kind of price.
 
nickf88 said:
1:50 Goodwood

Two against the field at prices.

Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.
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You don't post often enough, nickf88. I like your thinking.
 
nickf88 said:
1:50 Goodwood

Two against the field at prices.

Rochester House 20/1 Bet365, Hills

Blinkers on first time and should go from the front and try and last it out. 2nd in this race last year beaten a neck by Just Hubert. Won’t mind the ground either way it goes and has the master Fanning on board.

Kloud Gate 40/1 various books

Bit of a speculative one this but went off 10/1 off top weight in this race in 2018 and although the race was weaker (top rated horse was Kloud Gate off 93) he was still fairly competitive until 2 furlongs out but by that point Lil Rockerfeller had the race sewn up and Moore looked after the horse from then on. He gets in today’s race off 90 but is carrying a much lower weight, granted against much better horses but if the ground doesn’t go bottomless I think he can outrun his odds today.
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Yes I second you on Rochester House.

Good luck.

I've never backed him before but I had a look at the form and I've come round to his cause today.
 
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Rochester suffered an injury, Nick.

I hope not fatal.

Roll on next race.

Baeed backed like a certainty, will anything get near?

Peretto to out run the odds I reckon.
 
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Marb said:
Rochester suffered an injury, Nick.

I hope not fatal.

Roll on next

Baeed backed like a certainty, will anything get near?

Peretto to out run the odds I reckon.
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Fingers crossed not fatal. Johan in the next but horrible day so far for me.
 
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Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

Each Way. 100/1
 
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Marb said:
Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

Each Way. 100/1
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On my radar too.
 
Marb said:
Goodwood 3.40 Barbill

A freaky type who I once thought was an Ayr Gold cup type but can run a huge race at big odds sooner or later. In fact he was a decent 9th in the Wokingham against Rohaan. Maybe Mick Channon has laid him out for this. Watch the betting.

Each Way. 100/1
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Yes,he took chairmanof theboard out.so I should do it.
 
Outsider said:
Stewards cup TINTO 33/1 carries 12lb less than last year and 15 if Ghiani still claims 3.

Another I will probably do is HELLO JONESY 6lb less.did me a big turn last year.
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Gone in again with w.hill 66s boosted to 75.53/1.needs to break well.come on tinto.
 
Drawbias say:

“The six furlongs at Goodwood is run over a straight course, and it appears that it is an advantage to be drawn low. This advantage is more significant the larger the number of runners.”

Please note as from 30th March 2011 Stall numbering on right handed courses was switched, so that the inside stall is always stall number 1. However the results have been plotted in the chart below as if the stall numbering has always been his way at Goodwood. So for instance if there was a winner from stall 12 of 12 prior to 2011, this would be plotted below as stall 1 of 12.

Didn’t seem to be the case yesterday, though.
 
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