The 2021 Longshot Thread

It always makes me wonder when trainers ruin a good mark for 6 grand.
Which was the case with the William Haggas horse IRISH ADMIRAL.he won with a claimer so in theory he is off 10lb higher tomorrow.so at 20/1 I will have to back it.

Also couldnt resist having a pound on ROPEY GUEST at 100/1.caught my eye earlier in the year but hasnt really put it together although he hasnt run that bad.
 
I'm always on the lookout for longshots in the Cambridgeshire. Psychologically, I've probably never got over missing out on Spanish Don at 100/1 a few years back as it was a cliff horse for me and I let it go.

You can get 100/1 Baltic Baron today if you're happy to settle for 5 places but I've taken 80/1 for 8 places. He's clearly not the horse he once was but he's down to 79, if you take the jockey's allowance into account, from a high of 99 two seasons back and ran on well after blowing the start in last year's Hunt Cup off 97. These curves of gradual deterioration are sometimes interrupted by spikes of false hope and with eight places on offer I'm hoping half the field are beaten by the draw and that he is in the favoured half.
 
Last longshot for the Cambridgeshire - Fastnet Crown 40/1, 8 places - looked on a curve this summer on fast ground over shorter but bred for this trip. Has been finishing strongly in his races and might just be unexposed. The middle draw is a concern but he's probably overpriced partly due to his form over shorter and his trainer not being seen as a 'big gun' but who is very good at his job.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last longshot for the Cambridgeshire - Fastnet Crown 40/1, 8 places - looked on a curve this summer on fast ground over shorter but bred for this trip. Has been finishing strongly in his races and might just be unexposed. The middle draw is a concern but he's probably overpriced partly due to his form over shorter and his trainer not being seen as a 'big gun' but who is very good at his job.
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Ran a great race. Might have won the far side if the jockey had stayed over there and might have gone clos if the rider had done the sensible thing and come to the near side early on.

I'm not a fan of Spencer but he made himself look brilliant there on the winner. I'm pretty sure somebody put it up a while back so brilliant for them too.

Godolphin in a handicap. First colours. How did I miss it?
 
Cesarewitch.

I have done MAZE RUNNER 25/1.if it gets in off 74 then I dont think it will be this big.won a 3m hurdle last year so easily.
 
A real longshot this.
LILLY BANTER 40/1 skynet 6 places.hasnt run for 2 and a half yrs but it's a poor race and by all accounts a good jockey claiming 5.
First hcap.price worth a small bet.
 
Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
 
Ascot 3.50 - Qaysar 50/1 5pl - I backed this one in the big race at Goodwood during the summer and was disappointed with the ride it got but maybe the ground was against it. Its two best performances on RPRs have been on soft and heavy and with conditions tomorrow likely to suit I can see him outrunning those long odds.
 
Nwm 2.55 - Champers Elysees 20/1 - Murtagh has a decent strike rate over here and the horse hit form this time last season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
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Some shout well done DO


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Desert Orchid said:
Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
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:lol::lol::lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Arc - Torquator Tasso 80/1, 4pl - a soft-ground curve horse whose G1 Grosser Preiss von Baden might be under-rated by a couple of pounds. I like German horses in soft-ground races that might place an emphasis on stamina and he should probably be no more than about 16/1.
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Thanks for that. Couldn’t work out why I backed it on 1st but now I know! Makes up for the time we went to Longchamp and, on our return saw that I’d left a piece of paper with the name Danedream on it. But didn’t back her!
 
I half-suspect this one might not actually run but decided I wanted on just in case...

Cesarewitch - Mancini 125/1 (Unibet) - plenty will take the view that he is in decline this season but so is his OR, down now to 89 although guaranteed a run if they decide to go for the race.

Beaten only 4L in the Northumberland Plate off 93, his new mark - in theory - puts him alongside the winner so maybe he shouldn't be 125/1, at least on cherrypicking that one race. He went off favourite the time before last (off 87) only to be narrowly beaten into second, posting in the process a higher RPR than at Newcastle, suggesting maybe he isn't in decline after all.

The trainer is well known for bagging staying handicaps, which is another plus. I'm prepared to overlook my opinion that the owner (Koukash) is a bit of a wank.

There is another qualifier I've been planning to back all season. I just want to check it out a bit more.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There is another qualifier I've been planning to back all season. I just want to check it out a bit more.
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The other qualifier is last year's winner Great White Shark 20/1. She ended up being gambled into favourite last season and was really motoring in the final furlong. I'm not too worried about the 10lb rise in the handicap as I felt she had plenty in hand and very few Flat horses genuinely stay this trip. She's probably been trained all year for a repeat attempt and I reckon she has a pretty decent chance of pulling it off. Last year's winning rider is already jocked up for her.
 
Old Rowley Cup, Friday - Farhan 20/1 - He appears to be on a curve and might appreciate stepping back up in trip, having been a strong-staying winner over 10f in soft at Pontefract late last season. He disappointed at the trip earlier this season but the race may have come a tad too soon after his reappearance.
 
Just looking again at the Cesarewitch, I can make cases for almost everything currently priced up at 50s and more. That's obviously in addition to those at shorter odds for which it is probably even easier to make cases. I can see me backing a good half-dozen longshots in the race :lol:
 
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