The 2022 Derby Thread

Usual tactics are to go like the clappers in front, which should open up the inside for the fav and a few more.
 
Derby and Oaks draw | Timeform look at the impact of the stalls position over a mile and half at Epsom
By Timeform
15:03 · THU June 02, 2022
After the draw was made for the 2022 Cazoo Derby, Timeform analyse how runners drawn in low numbers have fared in races over a mile and a half at Epsom.
Is stall one a negative over the Derby course?

The theory that breaking from either stall 1 or 2 is a disadvantage over a mile and a half at Epsom has gained traction in recent years – and the data backs up the view.
Adayar won last year's Derby when drawn in stall 1, but he was the first horse to accomplish that feat since Oath in 1999. Meanwhile, no Derby winner has broken from stall 2 since gates were introduced for the race in 1967.
However, rather than focusing purely on winners or losers, a better way of assessing the impact of the draw is considering how many horses ran to form from that stall.
The below graph – using data since the start of 2014 – highlights how horses drawn low over the Derby course and distance of a mile and a half at Epsom have run to form less frequently than those in the middle or high numbers.
The effect of the draw over a mile and a half at Epsom

CC945943-24F2-445B-BB0B-A5878B799E42.jpeg

Only 41% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 1 have run to form over the course and distance since 2014. Royal Patronage, the mount of Jason Hart, has drawn the short straw in this year's Derby, while Tuesday and Ryan Moore will break from stall 1 in the Oaks.
Similarly, only 42% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 2 have run to form during the same period. The Algarve, drawn in stall 2 for the Oaks, was already a big outsider before the draw was made, but Westover would have been on the radar as a lively runner at double-figure odds before he was landed with stall 2 in the Derby.
There is a smaller sample size covering horses in the high numbers – each race is guaranteed to have a runner in stall 1 but may not have one in stall 16, for example – but the data suggests horses drawn middle or high show their form more frequently (this is not true of those drawn in stall 19, though that will be based on a limited sample).

Why can the low numbers be tricky to overcome?

Sometimes stats based on relatively low sample sizes can just be explained by variance and will level out over time. However, that is unlikely to be the case with this draw stat, as the course configuration provides a good reason for why those in gates 1 or 2 are at a disadvantage.
There is an early right-hand turn, so horses drawn low are initially on the outer, rather than the inside, and need to go hard to get a prominent early position. The field then swing back to the left, meaning those held up from a low draw find horses coming across them and can be short of room.
Former jockey Fran Berry, speaking on a Sporting Life podcast before last year's Derby, explained: "When you are drawn low you have so much running to do to get across.
"It's not even just that running to that right-hand turn – you're going up a hill and with the congestion you get at the pinch point you invariably get a bump which knocks the stuffing out of your horse as they're climbing the hill.
"It doesn't allow horses to get into a rhythm, get a breath, and it's very difficult to secure a smooth passage from that inside berth. You have to work extra hard to keep hold of your place and you can see why horses pay a price for it."
 
Whoever said the share of the world’s income captured by the top 1 percent has shrunk should have a look at the betting for the ladies Derby (The Oaks) today.

1st and 2nd fav from the yard of Gosden and the next 4 from the yard of Aiden O'Brien the rest are there for a look at the people and give their rich owners a day out.

Taking it as a given travelling head lad Sammy Stringer get's Emily Upjohn and Nashwa there in one piece relaxed and ready to go they could easily fill the first two places if the latter stays.

Frankie is unlikely to get it wrong so I am backing Emily Upjohn to win and Emily Upjohn and Nashwa in a SFC. Mainly because Aiden's all look fully exposed.
 
Tanlic said:
Mainly because Aiden's all look fully exposed.
Click to expand...

How can you look fully exposed when you are going 2 & 4 furlongs further than you have ever been before, 2 & 4 furlongs that should be more compatible with what you are bred for?
 
Last edited:
Maxbet said:
How can you look fully exposed when you are going 2 & 4 furlongs further than you have ever been before, 2 & 4 furlongs that should be more compatible with what you are bred for?
Click to expand...

I certainly don't see Tuesday having what it takes nor am I convinced she will stay the trip in this company. She could pinch 2nd if she does stay and Nahwa doesn't but no way does she have the class or the toe to beat the fav. IMO

Looks like a professional one paced loser to me. The rest look veryordinary and I can see nothing that would suggest they are Group 1 horses.
 
Tuesday is bred to do nothing but stay.

The track looks a bag of shite. That's s worry for any horse coming from off the pace.
 
Anyone else think it's very odd that Tuesday was born 'so late' in the year? They must have known what they were doing obviously but that really is a huge risk when hoping to run at 2 and even 3 with such a well bred horse, and could have been at a big disadvantage if had been a colt. I know my May foal against January/February ones was noticeably smaller even thought I thought he was good size. ( May only because first time was twins and both pinched obviously by mistake )

Would really love Hollie to win this as good as Emily Upjohn could be.
 
Last edited:
Slim said:
Tuesday is bred to do nothing but stay.

The track looks a bag of shite. That's s worry for any horse coming from off the pace.
Click to expand...

I teke my hat off to you........Coming off the pace aftera awful start granted but I also thought what on earth did Frankie come so wide for?
 
G-G said:
Anyone else think it's very odd that Tuesday was born 'so late' in the year? They must have known what they were doing obviously but that really is a huge risk when hoping to run at 2 and even 3 with such a well bred horse, and could have been at a big disadvantage if had been a colt. I know my May foal against January/February ones was noticeably smaller even thought I thought he was good size. ( May only because first time was twins and both pinched obviously by mistake )

Would really love Hollie to win this as good as Emily Upjohn could be.
Click to expand...

Clearly didn’t stop her being a late foal. Such a chilled filly.
 
jinnyj said:
Emily is a lovely looking filly
Click to expand...

I hope backers of Tuesday will forgive me but I was willing Emily home all through the latter stages. It would have been a sensational win after that start.

It remains to be seen what the form will amount to but with this being Tuesday's second birthday, you have to think that by Arc time she will be a bit of a monster.
 
Emily is a monster. Prefer the King George - wouldn't fancy her on soft Paris ground.

Tuesday no chance in an Arc. She's been too busy and he won't give her a break
 
Last edited:
Just watched it again and Ryan rode Frankie to sleep. He went for home and grabbed about 3 or 4 lengths while Frankie was waiting for what?
 
Interesting to see what price Tuesday will be if they meet again.

As feared with Nashwa, didn't get it. Bit keen aswell. Drop back.
 
5/6 Frankie rides her next time 13/8 he doesn't!

No only joking nothing he could do about the start anyway I would need to watch it again to judge the rest of the ride I was too busy cheering Tuesday.
 
Mmm, not sure I quite approve of Aidan’s tactics in walking his horses to the start and arriving there three or four minutes after the start time. Presumably to unsettle the others - worked, though, Emily blew the start.
 
barjon said:
Mmm, not sure I quite approve of Aidan’s tactics in walking his horses to the start and arriving there three or four minutes after the start time. Presumably to unsettle the others - worked, though, Emily blew the start.
Click to expand...

Not sure that's the reason she stumbled!
 
OK, time to put my head above the parapet. This is from the missive I put out to family and friends this evening:

[TABLE="width: 573"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] Desert Crown
[/TD]
[TD]R Kingscote
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Stone Age
[/TD]
[TD]R Moore
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] Nations Pride
[/TD]
[TD]W Buick
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Piz Badile
[/TD]
[TD]F Dettori
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Royal Patronage
[/TD]
[TD]Jason Hart
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] Nahanni
[/TD]
[TD]A Kirby
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Star Of India
[/TD]
[TD]S Heffernan
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Walk Of Stars
[/TD]
[TD]J Doyle
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Westover
[/TD]
[TD]R Hornby
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]Changingoftheguard
[/TD]
[TD]W Lordan
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] Glory Daze
[/TD]
[TD]R Whelan
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Masekela
[/TD]
[TD]J Watson
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] West Wind Blows
[/TD]
[TD]J Mitchell
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Hoo Ya Mal
[/TD]
[TD]D Probert
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Sonny Liston
[/TD]
[TD]T Marquand
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Grand Alliance
[/TD]
[TD]D Tudhope
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] El Habeeb
[/TD]
[TD]J F Egan
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I took 14/1 Nations Pride as my biggest bet in the race before there was any talk of supplementing it so I’m happy that they shelled out to get him in. If he does win it will soften the blows of having a few speculative ante-post punts not turn up. I also went in again at 10/1 (plus a boost) when they started mooting the possibility. Nahanni’s OR and RPR are low but his form was stacking up well in lesser races before Mighty Ulysses gave a it a big boost – not taken into account above because it won a small race in between – and I’m tempted by 25/1. I’m seriously tempted to have enough on Desert Crown to cover all my bets. I think if there is a superstar waiting to happen it will be either him or Nations Pride, maybe even both will prove above average.
 
barjon said:
Mmm, not sure I quite approve of Aidan’s tactics in walking his horses to the start and arriving there three or four minutes after the start time. Presumably to unsettle the others - worked, though, Emily blew the start.
Click to expand...


Yeah -Aidan is such a bad *******.
 
Tanlic said:
Just watched it again and Ryan rode Frankie to sleep. He went for home and grabbed about 3 or 4 lengths while Frankie was waiting for what?
Click to expand...
Say it softly but, for all his theatrics, I reckon he's over the hill.
Apalling judgement of pace got Pyledriver beat today, imo.
 
Tanlic said:
Just watched it again and Ryan rode Frankie to sleep. He went for home and grabbed about 3 or 4 lengths while Frankie was waiting for what?
Click to expand...
Say it softly but, for all his theatrics, I reckon he's over the hill.
Apalling judgement of pace got Pyledriver beat today, imo.
 
Back
Top