The 2022 Derby Thread

barjon said:
Derby and Oaks draw | Timeform look at the impact of the stalls position over a mile and half at Epsom
By Timeform
15:03 · THU June 02, 2022
After the draw was made for the 2022 Cazoo Derby, Timeform analyse how runners drawn in low numbers have fared in races over a mile and a half at Epsom.
Is stall one a negative over the Derby course?

The theory that breaking from either stall 1 or 2 is a disadvantage over a mile and a half at Epsom has gained traction in recent years – and the data backs up the view.
Adayar won last year's Derby when drawn in stall 1, but he was the first horse to accomplish that feat since Oath in 1999. Meanwhile, no Derby winner has broken from stall 2 since gates were introduced for the race in 1967.
However, rather than focusing purely on winners or losers, a better way of assessing the impact of the draw is considering how many horses ran to form from that stall.
The below graph – using data since the start of 2014 – highlights how horses drawn low over the Derby course and distance of a mile and a half at Epsom have run to form less frequently than those in the middle or high numbers.
The effect of the draw over a mile and a half at Epsom

View attachment 2773

Only 41% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 1 have run to form over the course and distance since 2014. Royal Patronage, the mount of Jason Hart, has drawn the short straw in this year's Derby, while Tuesday and Ryan Moore will break from stall 1 in the Oaks.
Similarly, only 42% of horses (from a sample size of 96) drawn in stall 2 have run to form during the same period. The Algarve, drawn in stall 2 for the Oaks, was already a big outsider before the draw was made, but Westover would have been on the radar as a lively runner at double-figure odds before he was landed with stall 2 in the Derby.
There is a smaller sample size covering horses in the high numbers – each race is guaranteed to have a runner in stall 1 but may not have one in stall 16, for example – but the data suggests horses drawn middle or high show their form more frequently (this is not true of those drawn in stall 19, though that will be based on a limited sample).

Why can the low numbers be tricky to overcome?

Sometimes stats based on relatively low sample sizes can just be explained by variance and will level out over time. However, that is unlikely to be the case with this draw stat, as the course configuration provides a good reason for why those in gates 1 or 2 are at a disadvantage.
There is an early right-hand turn, so horses drawn low are initially on the outer, rather than the inside, and need to go hard to get a prominent early position. The field then swing back to the left, meaning those held up from a low draw find horses coming across them and can be short of room.
Former jockey Fran Berry, speaking on a Sporting Life podcast before last year's Derby, explained: "When you are drawn low you have so much running to do to get across.
"It's not even just that running to that right-hand turn – you're going up a hill and with the congestion you get at the pinch point you invariably get a bump which knocks the stuffing out of your horse as they're climbing the hill.
"It doesn't allow horses to get into a rhythm, get a breath, and it's very difficult to secure a smooth passage from that inside berth. You have to work extra hard to keep hold of your place and you can see why horses pay a price for it."
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Good old Timeform. Adayar won from stall 1 last year. :lol:
 
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reet hard said:
Good old Timeform. Adayar won from stall 1 last year. :lol:
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To be fair, they do say as much in the article, reet. Adayar won last year's Derby when drawn in stall 1, but he was the first horse to accomplish that feat since Oath in 1999.
 
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I wonder would he have kicked for home sooner had he not suffered at the start like he did?

Watching the replay it was clear Ryan asked for maximum effort on Tuesday in the home straight before Frankie did the same on Emilyjohn.

Maybe Frankie did give Emily too much of a breather while others were starting to get away from him?
 
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It was a short head.
Ryan is riding in a different zone this season, I suspect it has to do with his brother's injury , having seen similar concentration of effort by quiet, calm, dedicated farmer clients of mine when a family member was terminally ill.
It is a form of coping with a bad situation.
Hard to criticise Frankie except for his first post race comments that Ryan had the rail and he had to come outside, but that was heat of the moment comment also.
Two top fillies.
 
Marb said:
I wonder would he have kicked for home sooner had he not suffered at the start like he did?
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Correct.

That said, look at the fractions. He'll wished he did a couple of things differently.

Tuesday being overlooked here. Look where she has come from aswell. Was hardly foot perfect in last couple of furlongs either.
 
It was a short head.
Ryan is riding in a different zone this season, I suspect it has to do with his brother's injury , having seen similar concentration of effort by quiet, calm, dedicated farmer clients of mine when a family member was terminally ill.
It is a form of coping with a bad situation.
Hard to criticise Frankie except for his first post race comments that Ryan had the rail and he had to come outside, but that was heat of the moment comment also.
Two top fillies.
 
Think Frankie lost it is as well. Thought he had the field covered when getting upsides 2f out, took the foot off the accelerator, and again 100yards out when he thought he could win a snug head without giving it the kitchen sink. Two good horses. Unlike the jumps don't have to wait 12 months for the rematch.
 
Had a look at the draw for the past few years, and while it's true stalls 1-10 are favoured, it's not impossible to win from higher, and I reckon Desert Crown's superiority is more than enough to overcome doubts, so I've taken the 9/4 he'll prove it.
Also had a small ew on Royal Patronage (33/1 4pl) as I believe the Dante form to be rock solid.
 
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HawkWing said:
Think Frankie lost it is as well. Thought he had the field covered when getting upsides 2f out, took the foot off the accelerator, and again 100yards out when he thought he could win a snug head without giving it the kitchen sink. Two good horses. Unlike the jumps don't have to wait 12 months for the rematch.
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I would largely agree with this although I'd imagine his reasoning was based on the lost ground through the first furlong and not wanting to leave the filly's season - and possibly career - here.

I thought Moore was brilliant on the winner too.
 
Definitely lost the race at the beginning. But the move the made when coming from the back got her to the front (a length off the lead) far quicker than Frankie expected. He took the briefest of pulls (understandably) at the time that Moore was quickening. Got him a cheap 1.5l lead. Super race, all said
 
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After losing the ground at the stalls, did Dettori make a mistake in making up the ground whilst running uphill, should he have waited for the course to level off before recovering the ground? Trying to make ground while travelling uphill is allegedly very demanding. Easy with hindsight though isn't it. Did he have to come wide around the field? Would a pathway have opened up he'd waited? I feel sorry for connections, I think we can say that the best fillyon the day finished second. And as Jinny pointed out above, she is a really lovely filly and it seems a shame that she isn't the Oaks winner.
 
HawkWing said:
Think Frankie lost it is as well. Thought he had the field covered when getting upsides 2f out, took the foot off the accelerator, and again 100yards out when he thought he could win a snug head without giving it the kitchen sink. Two good horses. Unlike the jumps don't have to wait 12 months for the rematch.
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I can't see where they will meet again this summer.
 
HawkWing said:
Think Frankie lost it is as well. Thought he had the field covered when getting upsides 2f out, took the foot off the accelerator, and again 100yards out when he thought he could win a snug head without giving it the kitchen sink. Two good horses. Unlike the jumps don't have to wait 12 months for the rematch.
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I can't see where they will meet again this summer.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDhTyL_Eo78

Very interesting to watch this... how far across the track does Tuesday drift right? Also just listening to the commentary, sounds as if Dettori, after recovering, sat behind Ryan so wondering if he had kicked a second or two earlier, and taking the drift into account, would the result have been reversed possibly?
 
I can't really fancy anything strongly so Stoneage and Changingoftheguard in a 20pts RFC for me....have to respect SMS's so 20pts on Desert Crown to cover myself for fun.
 
Whatever happens I just hope I start getting the rub of the green before Royal Ascot.
 
What fuckinidiot thought setting off mass fireworks before the race was a good idea????????

Christalfuckinmighty.
 
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