The 2022 Dublin Racng Festival

Euronymous said:
Sat:
Opener is too difficult, was gonna go for Eric Bloodaxe ew but the NR has ruined that.

Fil D'or ap @ 9/4 (double with APT Gold Cup)

Riviere D'etel in a double with Song for Someone and at 3.55 on the machine. Will top up and lay a bit off IR. Likely she'll be much shorter at some point

I've followed Dessie in on Enjoy D'allen (ew double with Onagatheringstorm at Sandown who is too big at around 16s)

Cilaos Emery shouldn't be longer than Conflated. Worth a tenner at 66s
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If you can get on with them, Betfred are still paying 3 places in the opener as long as 6 or more run
 
Euronymous said:
Cilaos Emery shouldn't be longer than Conflated. Worth a tenner at 66s
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On bare ratings I would agree but the latter's curve interests me.

They blew a potentially dangerous GN handicap mark with him last time, resulting in a 12lb (I think it was) rise. I'm not convinced such sharp rises plateau immediately so I would anticipate another few pounds' improvement which would bring them a lot closer. I was thinking about Conflated at 40s ew myself. I suspect he'll be ridden to pick up some pieces and the KG showed sometimes you end up picking up the whole kit and caboodle.
 
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Eventually I’ve sided with Kemboy by method of deduction. I’ve rewatched AFs last two falls and on both occasions he’s partly undone by his tendency to hang right.

At Punchestown he runs down the 3rd last to his right and clips through the wings before crumpling on landing and at Kempton, which due to the camera angle isn’t so noticeable, he starts drifting to the inner of eventual winner Tornado Flyer approaching the last so Cooper has to takes him back a touch and tries to switch him left back to that one’s outer otherwise he’d have jumped into the back of TF. But - and I admit this is subjective - the change in momentum helps him lose balance as they land.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that going left handed again is going to be more of a negative than a positive in that respect.

The jury’s out on Minella Indo for now and even on his best form there isn’t much between him and Kemboy’s LTO run on a literal line through APT and Kemboy has the advantage of running at his favourite track.

Cilaos Emery is a doubtful stayer in this class, as is Jandili and Frodon is not going to get his own way out front.

The Giggi horses just don’t look good enough although if the first time pieces were to bring Delta Work back to his very best he’d be overpriced but he hasn’t run to that level for 2 years.
 
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I arrived at much the same conclusion via much the same reasoning, wilsonl, but I'm just hesitant about actually putting money on Kemboy. I might enjoy the race better without a serious bet.

I'm kind of kicking myself for going in early on Minella Indo (10/1) for the Gold Cup. I should have realised it would disappoint a few more times ahead of March and that I might well get a bigger price along the way.
 
Eric Bloodaxe
Wave of the Sea
Panda Boy

EW Trixie

Vauban
Blue Lord
Facile

Treble

Minella Indo, Single - has to be value at that price.
 
My tuppenceworth for today:

1.05 The chances are two or three of these will find 10lbs on anything they’ve done so far so it’s probably a race best watched. I might try Eric Bloodaxe (7/1) since I already have him on 144.

1.35 The same goes with this race. Fil Dor’s OR wouldn’t get him a place in a modern Triumph yet he’s a short-priced favourite for it. The stable took this last year with the eventual Triumph winner, Quilixios, off a similar rating so improvement is anticipated but it’s just a race to watch.

2.10 I’m of a mind to ignore what any of these have done so far over fences. All they’ve had until now is educational runs and the serious business starts now. Embittered has the highest hurdles rating but he’s had quite a while over fences now and hasn’t progressed much. Busselton has most to do but not much separates the rest either on ratings or in the betting. It’s really just a race to watch.

2.45 I’m very keen on Enjoy D’allen for this but want another two or three onside. The obvious ones are Unexpected Depth, Aldo The Apache and Futurum Regem.

3.15 See earlier post.

3.50 It’s hard to get away from the conclusion that the better Irish 2m handicappers are being aimed at the Grand Annual. For a £100k race to have runners rated in the 110s and 120s is a bit of a shocker. And it’s not as though they are novices on a steep curve. Mt Leinster was a 142 novice hurdler two seasons back and a 105 Flat handicapper last season so he’s probably the class animal but he’s only 2/1*. I’ll need to let this race go.

*Written on Thursday - I think it's even shorter now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.50 It’s hard to get away from the conclusion that the better Irish 2m handicappers are being aimed at the Grand Annual. For a £100k race to have runners rated in the 110s and 120s is a bit of a shocker. And it’s not as though they are novices on a steep curve. Mt Leinster was a 142 novice hurdler two seasons back and a 105 Flat handicapper last season so he’s probably the class animal but he’s only 2/1*. I’ll need to let this race go.

*Written on Thursday - I think it's even shorter now.
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I was thinking the same thing. I am quite happy to stick with Batcio at about 10/1 I reckon he will run his race as he's in good spirits form-wise and if he does bump into a smart one then so be it.
 
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I wish everyone from this forum going along to Leopardstown an excellent and hopefully profitable day.
 
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I'm still annoyed at missing out on the weekend a few years ago. I had my flights booked and accom sorted but took unwell during the days leading up to it and had to cancel.

Haven't tried to get there since.

One day, maybe...
 
You are in Scotland aren't you, DO?

I am probably not actually that far from you down here near Newcastle.

Maybe we could link up for a Dublin trip eh?

I am coming on 37 years old but still shamefully never been to Ireland.
 
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Yes. South Lanarkshire but currently in Glasgow awaiting keys to new house in a couple of weeks' time.

Newcastle is a good 3h drive (speaking from experience).

I won't say no but Mrs O is at a stage when she doesn't like being left on her own and there's no way she'd come to Dublin for the racing (unless she got top quality box seats - she doesn't mind tarting herself up for that kind of outing).

If the meeting ever coincides with Orchidette's mid-term long weekend I reckon I could persuade those two to have a social weekend to themselves while I went to the racing. Top box seats permitting, I reckon Orchidette would steal the show, mind. (But I'm biased.)
 
Mullins is on Fire again....I swear you could give him a selling plater and he'd win a Group race with it.

What about this beast Pied Piper..I hear the commentator saying GE didn't expect him to win first time out but he still beat this Vaboun.

As far as I can remeber I have never seen so many good novice hurdlers in the same season in 40 years

Again!!! 3 down x amount to go:)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I arrived at much the same conclusion via much the same reasoning, wilsonl, but I'm just hesitant about actually putting money on Kemboy. I might enjoy the race better without a serious bet.
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Free £5 bet at B365. No big deal but it gives me an interest in the race/Kemboy.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was thinking about Conflated at 40s ew myself. I suspect he'll be ridden to pick up some pieces and the KG showed sometimes you end up picking up the whole kit and caboodle.
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:cool:

Not ridden as I expected but still managed to win.
 
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Well that opened a few eyes......! Thought the second ran well and should be spot on for March.
 
I suppose that was a bit better from Minella Indo but to be honest with ones self if you have backed him for the GC it was a million miles away from being encouraging.

The 3rd finished right up his backside and they were going nowhere fast...they would have been beaten even further had the winner jumped the last better.

I reckon Rachael is on the right one between the two this time no qustion.
 
He ran on well all the way to the line and finished his race much better than he did last year. Both times Henry would have just wanted to get a run into him. He's a Cheltenham horse, never write those off.
 
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