The 2022 Longshot Thread

Kim Muir - Didero Vallis 50/1, 6 places - in my top two on the figures, first time blinkers and was looking good earlier in the season before seeming to lose the plot. If the blinkers get him back on track he'll have as good a chance as anything.
 
FiftyP said:
How the day is shaping up and pints consumed will tell me whether 200/1 for Monishter Are Mwee is the type of genius move that'll make my name or the type of genius move that'll make my name.
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This nugget has to be followed up with my £1.50 ew. It’s only win was on heavy over 2 miles, and she’s been mixing it with the best mares recently. Good spot, FiftyP.
 
And thank you, DO, for all your hard work on this thread.

Btw, the G1 Royal Bond winner, Statuaire, is available at 22/1 in the Mares Novices.
 
Len Madeiros said:
And thank you, DO, for all your hard work on this thread.

Btw, the G1 Royal Bond winner, Statuaire, is available at 22/1 in the Mares Novices.
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I came to put up this, 28/1 365. Win available at 40s plus on the exchange. Ridiculous. I think Dinoblue wins but this price is wild.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The brother is on that one too, DJ, for similar reasons.



My other longshot for this race is If The Cap Fits 33/1, 7 pl, another largely discarded old sod but who might just be the type to trudge through the mud and murk and, if on a going day, has the back class to win off a mark that would be an insult to its best form.
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As per my earlier post I am 100 percent with you on this. He was thought of as a stayers hurdle prospect once upon a time. A much better run the last day when a staying on fifth in a competative handicap hurdle at Sandown. 137 a very workable mark for him.
 
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Koshari 80/1 Stayers Hurdle
Fully expecting this one to be outclassed but he might just cope with the ground better than others. Anyway that’s where my £1 free bet from Ladbrokes (very generous of them [emoji3525]) has gone


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Say Goodbye 25/1 Mares Novice
Strong finisher behind Party Central last time and gets a handy 5lb from that one with the hill likely to suit. 6 places with SkyBet taken. 28/1 available elsewhere but to 4 places


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Marb said:
As per my earlier post I am 100 percent with you on this. He was thought of as a stayers hurdle prospect once upon a time. A much better run the last day when a staying on fifth in a competative handicap hurdle at Sandown. 137 a very workable mark for him.
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Yes, it was in my mind that someone else had mentioned him a day or two back. Fingers crossed indeed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kim Muir - Didero Vallis 50/1, 6 places - in my top two on the figures, first time blinkers and was looking good earlier in the season before seeming to lose the plot. If the blinkers get him back on track he'll have as good a chance as anything.
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I've only just seen this but I agree.i had to do it.i like a big price Venitia runner in this.
 
Cheers, outsider. The place return will cover the longshots in that race. Very disappointed with how The Cob checked out though.

My top 10 ratings for the race:

[TABLE="width: 367"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD] Sire Du Berlais
[/TD]
[TD](174)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Honest Vic
[/TD]
[TD](173)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballyandy
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Jam Man
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Third Wind
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] If The Cap Fits
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]?
(181oed)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alaphilippe
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Go Another One
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]171?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stoney Mountain
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]{170}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mill Green
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, outsider. The place return will cover the longshots in that race. Very disappointed with how The Cob checked out though.

My top 10 ratings for the race:

[TABLE="width: 367"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD] Sire Du Berlais
[/TD]
[TD](174)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Honest Vic
[/TD]
[TD](173)
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballyandy
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Jam Man
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Third Wind
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] If The Cap Fits
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]?
(181oed)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alaphilippe
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Go Another One
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]171?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stoney Mountain
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]{170}
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mill Green
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
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Nice.i think I will give up.except for the 2nd I never got one in the first ten.
The only one in your list besides that, that I backed was the jam man and he ran poor.
 
For some reason I’ve got “plot horse” noted against Silver Sheen 5:30 C tomorrow 66/1. Haven’t got the faintest idea why, was it something you (someone) said?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kim Muir - Didero Vallis 50/1, 6 places - in my top two on the figures, first time blinkers and was looking good earlier in the season before seeming to lose the plot. If the blinkers get him back on track he'll have as good a chance as anything.
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Great run for the money.

Not aftertiming but this is from my summary of the race:

I reckon Ain’t That A Shame, Mister Coffey, Omar Maretti, Chambard, Rightplacerightime and Didero Vallis look a likely enough short list although I’ll also have to have some sickness insurance on Elegant Escape as well. Ain’t That A Shame will be the main bet with small savers on the others.
 
barjon said:
For some reason I’ve got “plot horse” noted against Silver Sheen 5:30 C tomorrow 66/1. Haven’t got the faintest idea why, was it something you (someone) said?
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Wasn’t there some talk of Silver Sheen being laid out for the Pertemps? So, why has he been rerouted to the Martin Pipe?
 
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barjon said:
For some reason I’ve got “plot horse” noted against Silver Sheen 5:30 C tomorrow 66/1. Haven’t got the faintest idea why, was it something you (someone) said?
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Yes mate,I put it up for the pertemps.missed the cut by one.
 
County Hdle - Eclair De Beaufeu 40/1, 7 places - 6lbs clear on my figures, plus Gainford's 3lb allowance and 3lbs lower than when a close third in a very hot renewal last year. Hard to see him not on the premises again, assuming his entire season has been about getting here.
 
A couple of proper longshots for Friday.

4.30 Pink Legend is a tricky mare to get to the bottom of. She has been beaten in handicap chases but also stepped up once of twice to win listed mares chases.

The pattern of her best form seems to be she does better on better ground after a decent break so hopefully the ground dries up for her.

She won over this course and distance last season and she had Vienna Court back in second at Huntingdon in January where her trainer could offer no explanation as to the improvement in form.

Pink Legend ran poorly the last day when she fell, but she has had a decent break since then of 30+ days plus, so I feel she can rekindle her best form and put in a career best tomorrow.

It sort of says it all that Venetia runs her in this, looking at the horses profile.

There is definately some talent or untapped potential there and I just think that before anyone calls the men in white coats for me, that with the eight runners, she is worthy of an each bet at around 66/1. I would be delighted if she finishes in the first three.

5.30 Gordon Elliot has a load of runners in this and one horse now totally overlooked in the betting is Perfect Attitude.

This horse has only been seen on the track a few times in maiden and novice hurdles, placing once or twice.

He runs here after a three month absense where you'd hope he has improved at home for his first start in a handicap. I think it's a very open race and Perfect Attitude is a very interesting horse to be sending off at such big prices in his first start in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 135.

His trainer Gordon Elliot says. "Perfect Attitude is a solid horse and this trip, track and race could be right up his street."

Good luck all tomorrow.
 
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