The 2022 Longshot Thread

HawkWing said:
They are hunters after all and gun to head, i'd probably have Billaway to win, but price doesnt reflect chances.
Click to expand...
Was beginning to get interesting going down the hill. Got to congratulate getting a horse who can't jump to win a foxhunters. Barry O'Neill distraught at the pull up was hard to watch
 
HawkWing said:
Was beginning to get interesting going down the hill. Got to congratulate getting a horse who can't jump to win a foxhunters. Barry O'Neill distraught at the pull up was hard to watch
Click to expand...

Will be interesting to see if it runs at aintree over 2m5f.
 
Outsider said:
I always look at Venitias in the plate but this year she didnt have a runner but Pink legend was entered so I will be doing this ew as well marb.
Click to expand...

What a fantastic run by Pink legend that horse falling 2 out might have made the difference having to slightly sidestep.
 
I’m throwing an awful lot of pennies at the last race, including what I hope is an Ian Williams plot horse…
 
A punter’s day they say - well, not for me. Started off ok then fell apart - fell being the operative word.
 
2 for the GRAND NATIONAL

Mount ida 25/1 boosted to 27.63/1 hills .....20s bet354 ntnb
Cloudy Glen 40/1 betfair.........33/1 nrnb

1st and 2nd in last years kim Muir. And cloudy Glen is 8lb better off for 6.5 L.
Cloudy of course won the Ladbroke.and is a lb worse off with fiddlerontheroof.ontheropes is 7ob better and cloth cap is 13lb better but they both were well beaten although ontheropes was staying on but I've already put him up at 100s.
.I think this distance will suit Mount Ida better than the 2m 5f at Cheltenham.hesc9noy been running over that distance since the kim Muir so he hasnt had a hard season.
 
Exeter 3.36

Global Agreement seems too big a price at 20/1. This is a class three handicap hurdle and some top stables are represented. Venetia Williams, Paul Nicholls and Harry Fry all have potential improvers in there, although Milton Harris is a good enough trainer in his own right.

Global Agreement has shown plenty of improvement when winning three class four handicap hurdles already this season. All his form is on soft ground, it's currently good to soft but any more rain would aid his chance. I just think he is an insulting price at 20/1 and on a going day can run into a place.
 
Last edited:
HORTZADAR 40/1 Lincoln.
I think I put this up last year when it finished 3rd off 7lb higher. Needs 1 to come out I think.
I put up Orbaan but he never made the cut and I think he was taken out so it looks like I lost my money if that's the case.
 
Lincoln - Scottish Summit 50/1 - will definitely make the cut. Disappointed last year in the race (big price) but subsequently ran to RPRs of 100-102 a handful of times through the season. Caught close home in a decent CD race in September off 94 and down to 92 now so should be on the premises. Probably will have it to do against the Godolphin and Haggas sexpots but 50s is probably more than twice its true odds.
 
Last edited:
Grand national

POKER PARTY 100/1 nrnb w.hill

Has ran 3 times this season a chase,a hurdle and last time the cross country.when there was money for it,
Trained by HdB.
 
Slim said:
Don't bother, there aren't any.
Click to expand...

I think there are reasons but wouldn't be rushing in for now. I reckon she'll be that price or bigger closer to the race.

I would need to know more about the change of ownership. Was it for big money with the National in mind? Is there a story there? I usually take big-money transfers on the eve of the National as a negative but Balko Des Flos ran a belter in new colours last year.

She could have won a decent novice handicap (11/8f, heavily backed) at Cheltenham off 148 (149 here) last December but got a strange ride from Power. I was on her for decent money that day at about 9/4 but he held her up in rear and very wide. I think he was trying to be clever and got it wrong on the day.

She was only 22/1 for the Irish National off 152 so it isn't hard to imagine it being quite easy to manipulate her mark down again.

She's pretty unexposed over fences but has won over 3m5f at Fairyhouse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He doesn't train her any more. She's moved to HdB.
Click to expand...

I didnt know that.
It was owned by Mr Rory F.Larkin and changed to Rory F Larking before its run at Cheltenham and then changed back after Cheltenham.
It has now changed back again.from Mr Rory F Larkin to Rory F Larkin.

I hope that clears that up.lol.
 
As DO says Court maid won over 3m 5f by 13 L and then finished 9th in the irish national off 12lb higher.
She then ran at Cheltenham which got it a bha mark of 149.

This season it had 3 runs
2m5f against Mount ida,Elijah and scarlet and dove
Hurdle race against Royal Khala easdale Bob and classical dream
2m chase. 2nd to Elimay btn 3L getting 3lb.

Nobody can be certain a horse will stay the full distance but it has a chance of staying .
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lincoln - Scottish Summit 50/1 - will definitely make the cut. Disappointed last year in the race (big price) but subsequently ran to RPRs of 100-102 a handful of times through the season. Caught close home in a decent CD race in September off 94 and down to 92 now so should be on the premises. Probably will have it to do against the Godolphin and Haggas sexpots but 50s is probably more than twice its true odds.
Click to expand...


Another one for the Lincoln - United Front 40/1 - the accepted view appears to be that this one is nearly a stone better on the AW than on Turf but at the price I'm willing to see if that might be misleading. He was an improver on synthetics some time back but had an extended break last season during which he was gelded. He threw in a couple of modest efforts on Turf, one of which is most likely to have been a bounce, but then his form started to take off again on the AW. There has to be the chance that the improvement is down to the gelding operation and he hasn't really had the chance to show he won't translate at least a fair chunk of his improvement back to Turf.

Like I say, at the price, I'm willing to pay to fun' oot.
 
I dont know the stats for how many runs a horse should have had.most the horses havent run many times but two outsiders that seems to have a chance have run 20 and 28 times.
REVICH 40/1 finished 6th last year with a claimer on and this Ghiani rides and is only 1lb higher.
FAME AND ACCLAIM 25/1 ex joseph O'Brien finished 13th in royal hunt cup but taking out the winner it was only about 3L off 3rd.
The stat that says 5 yr olds drawn over 17 are 0/139 in all 1m races at donny(stats from 2020,dont know about last year)has to be ignored.
Good or faster shouldnt inconvenience it.
 
Just realised I havent put my best bet up on here

IRISH ADMIRAL 25/1 except for the draw,but all the first 3 in the betting are drawn next to him,so maybe it wont matter,I think this has a great chance.
 
Back
Top