The 2022 Longshot Thread

After 4 optimistic tries by David Pipe with Gericault Roque and four near things
his mark has been creeping up but he still goes for the Ultima 5lbs out of the handicap.

However there's reason to believe the better ground will more than compensate and the punters seem to agree.


Gericault Roque 14/1 EW 4 places Betfair
 
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Ireland to win all the hurdle races at Cheltenham (13 races)

Hills
Betfair
Paddy Power
Sky

Maybe others?
 
Thought Oscar had it for a mo but the Pipe horse rallied well only to find the winner shooting past.

Still Oscar covered the on-the-day longshot bets, so I lost on the ante-post bet on Vintage Clouds and the main bet (win only) Tea Clipper.

Great racing so far, though!
 
Coral Cup - Call Me Lord 40/1 - The jockey has been out for a long time and has had a few quiet rides to get his eye back in. This is his first ride of the meeting and his only one on the day. I reckon they are looking to welcome him back with a big win. At any rate, I’m willing to back that hunch and the horse is certainly well in on its old form and it’s not that long ago it was rated 160 (142 here).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coral Cup - Call Me Lord 40/1 - The jockey has been out for a long time and has had a few quiet rides to get his eye back in. This is his first ride of the meeting and his only one on the day. I reckon they are looking to welcome him back with a big win. At any rate, I’m willing to back that hunch and the horse is certainly well in on its old form and it’s not that long ago it was rated 160 (142 here).
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I think that's a good shout D.dropped 2lb for its last run and will be 4lb better with Dan de vent.Henderson loves this race as well.
My only problem with CML and DLV is they are both 9 yr olds.
The last 136 horses over 8 in hcaps have only produced 1 winner which was of course in this race trained by Henderson.
I'm still going to follow you in though.
 
Outsider said:
I think that's a good shout D.dropped 2lb for its last run and will be 4lb better with Dan de vent.Henderson loves this race as well.
My only problem with CML and DLV is they are both 9 yr olds.
The last 136 horses over 8 in hcaps have only produced 1 winner which was of course in this race trained by Henderson.
I'm still going to follow you in though.
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8yos don't win the Arkle apparently.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coral Cup - Call Me Lord 40/1 - The jockey has been out for a long time and has had a few quiet rides to get his eye back in. This is his first ride of the meeting and his only one on the day. I reckon they are looking to welcome him back with a big win. At any rate, I’m willing to back that hunch and the horse is certainly well in on its old form and it’s not that long ago it was rated 160 (142 here).
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I'm feeling a wee bit optimistic about this one now, given how Hendo's horses are running today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday - Grand Annual - Global Citizen 50/1, 6 places - I've been banging on about this one since it ran so well behind Tommy's Oscar at Haydock over hurdles. I'm not convinced Cheltenham is its track but the signs that day was that the horse was back to something like its best, which is very good. I could have fancied him for the County off his hurdles mark so for him to get into a chase off a same ball park figure is all the more interesting. I haven't actually studies the race yet but this might end up being my main bet anyway. (That said, I will be on a few, as is my wont.)
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See this fella has attracted some support in the betting.

I will split stakes between him and my longshot Hasankey.

Good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Festival Bumper - Houlanbatordechais 33/1 - this is a complete and utter hunch but I'm reminded of the time I put up Concertista on the longshot thread a couple of years ago when she made her debut in the mares' novices' hurdle at something crazy like 66/1 and she was nutted on the line by a stablemate also at a big price. I just wonder why they've kept this one in the race at this stage without ever seeing a racecourse before and they know where they stand with the likes of Facile Vega in the field. If it goes out again I might go in again, being the proverbial glutton for punishment.
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Oooh, money for it. 16s tops and generally 12s this evening. :ninja:
 
Outsider said:
For pleasure 25/1 grand annual bee through stats and trends and form and looks overpriced imo.
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Agreed. One of mine too. Was a fancied outsider in last year's Champion Hurdle and totally unexposed over fences.

Meanwhile, here's a wild one:

Champion Chase - Politologue 80/1 - I've always had big figures for this horse's best form and if he produces it today - why run him if he isn't up to it? - he could be in the mix for the minor placings and if any (or all) of the big three don't run their race, who knows?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday - Grand Annual - Global Citizen 50/1, 6 places - I've been banging on about this one since it ran so well behind Tommy's Oscar at Haydock over hurdles. I'm not convinced Cheltenham is its track but the signs that day was that the horse was back to something like its best, which is very good. I could have fancied him for the County off his hurdles mark so for him to get into a chase off a same ball park figure is all the more interesting. I haven't actually studies the race yet but this might end up being my main bet anyway. (That said, I will be on a few, as is my wont.)
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Desert Orchid said:
Coral Cup - Call Me Lord 40/1 - The jockey has been out for a long time and has had a few quiet rides to get his eye back in. This is his first ride of the meeting and his only one on the day. I reckon they are looking to welcome him back with a big win. At any rate, I’m willing to back that hunch and the horse is certainly well in on its old form and it’s not that long ago it was rated 160 (142 here).
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Decided to be brave in the hope that fortune favours me and have taken the double about these two old warriors/shiters (delete according to personal opinion), 40s & 25s this morning, 1065/1 the double.

Going for the thread record :lol:
 
Outsider said:
For pleasure 25/1 grand annual bee through stats and trends and form and looks overpriced imo.
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Good luck matey. I hope all Outsiders followers are on this now.

My fancy Hasankey should love this soft ground.

Hasankey should never be the price he is especially on soft ground but it's a very competative race so partly understandable.

I'd be delighted if he places.
 
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I thought I had put this up but it must be on another thread

MAZE RUNNER 33/1 coral cup likes heavy stays 3m.
 
I’ve had an accidental bet on Poetic Music in the bumper at 33/1. Follow Fergals horses and he used to be good with his bumper horses, especially when Timmy used to ride them. Thought I’d put an enhanced odds bet on it but then realised I’d clicked on a £2 free bet by mistake. Didn’t want to back track in it in case I lost the bet altogether. Not even sure if it’s win or ew! May use my tried and tested method for winning which is to not watch or listen to my last bet if the day. It’s a cunning plan and it might just work.
 
Lol not me my horse Mcfabulous a late non runner.

Commander Of Fleet was second behind Minella Indo three years ago in the Albert Bartlett. He was a huge SP. So big it'd almost put you off!

A good sign for anyone backing huge priced horses in the next few races though.

They can win sometimes...
 
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One of the pundits on WHill racing radio tipped it just before the off: Andrew Mount I think. Said it went well in big fields.
 
Outsider said:
I thought I had put this up but it must be on another thread

MAZE RUNNER 33/1 coral cup likes heavy stays 3m.
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Stayed on for a distant 5th so I nice profit.
Commander of fleet came up in my alerts.thats 2 wins at 40s and now 50s and I never backed it either time.
 
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