The 2022 Longshot Thread

My final longshot for the Lincoln is the top-weight Safe Voyage 40/1 - He is the established class horse in the race, the trainer has won it from only three runners in the last ten years and the claimer won on his only ride for him this season, at 33/1. The horse was pushing G1 level, beaten a head in a mile G2 at Leopardstown 18 months ago and officially rated 116 at his peak. He's off 108 here and the rest will depend on how much value for his 7lbs claim the jockey is.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Another one for the Lincoln - United Front 40/1 - the accepted view appears to be that this one is nearly a stone better on the AW than on Turf but at the price I'm willing to see if that might be misleading. He was an improver on synthetics some time back but had an extended break last season during which he was gelded. He threw in a couple of modest efforts on Turf, one of which is most likely to have been a bounce, but then his form started to take off again on the AW. There has to be the chance that the improvement is down to the gelding operation and he hasn't really had the chance to show he won't translate at least a fair chunk of his improvement back to Turf.

Like I say, at the price, I'm willing to pay to fun' oot.
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Great minds? Fools?

Simon Rowlands:

However, in what is a typically trappy Lincoln, I am going to put up one at much bigger odds in the hope that everything clicks for it. That one is UNITED FRONT, who would be very well in on his form on the all-weather (in which sphere he is rated 13lb higher than he gets to run off here), but who was also fairly useful when last seen on turf, and who has not had all that many chances in strongly run miles.

The race was a bit tactical when he was third in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, but he acquitted himself well despite a big weight. He is drawn near to some pace in stall 7 and near to that trio of market leaders mentioned previously. My pricing has him at 14/1 and he is roughly double that.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Another one for the Lincoln - United Front 40/1 - the accepted view appears to be that this one is nearly a stone better on the AW than on Turf but at the price I'm willing to see if that might be misleading. He was an improver on synthetics some time back but had an extended break last season during which he was gelded. He threw in a couple of modest efforts on Turf, one of which is most likely to have been a bounce, but then his form started to take off again on the AW. There has to be the chance that the improvement is down to the gelding operation and he hasn't really had the chance to show he won't translate at least a fair chunk of his improvement back to Turf.

Like I say, at the price, I'm willing to pay to fun' oot.
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Hadn’t seen this but have just posted something similar on the Lincoln thread. 33/1 7 Places available
 
Wolverhampton 7:30 Casting Vote is taken 25/1 here and currently rank outsider.

He looked nicely bred by Rabbah bloodstock, (who I usually associate with breeding pretty fast horses). This fella has been hard to fathom since he was a good second to Albaflora on debut for Simon Crisford before winning his maiden in good style.

He was rated 86 after that but disappointed about half a dozen times apart from one decent run at Chester over an extended trip. He's now changed trainer to Christian Williams. He had a good blowout the last day on his first start for Christian and that should have blown away the cobwebs. He's dropped to class five level here and if he will ever turn his form around it will be in this grade.

25/1 taken.
 
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I've now done my figures for the Scottish National and decided my main bet in the race will be the longshot One More Fleurie 50/1.

On the surface of it, its form figures this season aren't promising (8P0) but the horse was an improving novice this time last season and won the big novice handicap at this meeting.

His three runs this season have been in races worth a combined £269k to the winner and he was only 12/1 for the first of them. I'm prepared to ignore the fact that he has disappointed in those three runs on the basis that this has been the aim since winning at the meeting last year when he jumped notably well in the lead, an attribute that will stand him in good stead for Saturday.

Knowing my luck, though, my trust that this is the target will prove misplaced and he won't even run...
 
I had a little on OMF at a big price in the Ultima, DO, though he ran no sort of race.

If he gets an easy lead and into a rhythm with his jumping, I can think of worse prospects (granted stamina is an unknown).
 
Grasshopper said:
I had a little on OMF at a big price in the Ultima, DO, though he ran no sort of race.

If he gets an easy lead and into a rhythm with his jumping, I can think of worse prospects (granted stamina is an unknown).
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... and it got his mark down 6lbs, GH.

Surely a little sickness insurance would be in order?
 
Scottish Champion Hurdle - Voix Du Reve 33/1 - it looks like the handicapper has given the old fella some allowance on account of his advancing years. He gets to race off 135 here (and they might employ a decent claimer) when a year ago he was rated 149. That said, he had gone down to 132 before winning last time out and if that signalled a revival in form he could be very well in, "could" being very much the operative word. Anyway, the price is long enough to make me want to have a stab and I've coupled him with Cool Mix and One More Fleurie in the big race in the hope of a mega return.

I can always dream.
 
MIGHTY THUNDER 40/1 grand national.(took 50s nrnd). Won the scottish last year.last time out it stopped quickly and it was reported he had a breathing problem so I assume they have fixed it.has been took out of the scottish so maybe he wont run in this, nrnb
 
El paso wood scottish national 50/1

If it's got over its excursions of the midlands national ,only carries 9.13.
 
4.50 Newbury Watergrange Jack

25/1 365 and 20/1 general is much too big for a Mulholland horse first time up in a handicap. It's worth playing each way to find out now he gets better ground. There is enough in his bumper form from his previous handler to suggest a mark of 107 could be lenient on going he appears to favour. The Henderson horse is the right favourite and could also be well treated, but I don't see too many others looking particularly unexposed. I've backed Watergrange Jack 18/1 6 places, so strictly speaking he should be in this thread, but I'll have a small bet each way 4 and 5 places which both qualify.
 
Just [as I often do at a late stage] having a quick look at my ratings table and comparing it with the odds on offer, I've stuck a small each-way on Fidux (SGN) at 66/1, 7 places.

I accept King's other runner, being a novice and on an obvious curve, is entitled to be among the favourites but Fidux is entitled to be on the premises on the pick of his form and should probably be no more than 25/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just [as I often do at a late stage] having a quick look at my ratings table and comparing it with the odds on offer, I've stuck a small each-way on Fidux (SGN) at 66/1, 7 places.

I accept King's other runner, being a novice and on an obvious curve, is entitled to be among the favourites but Fidux is entitled to be on the premises on the pick of his form and should probably be no more than 25/1.
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Fourth.

Job done again and I covered my other bets with Win My Wings so came out in front.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just [as I often do at a late stage] having a quick look at my ratings table and comparing it with the odds on offer, I've stuck a small each-way on Fidux (SGN) at 66/1, 7 places.

I accept King's other runner, being a novice and on an obvious curve, is entitled to be among the favourites but Fidux is entitled to be on the premises on the pick of his form and should probably be no more than 25/1.
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Many thanks again, DO. You are a man in form!
 
Topham - Francky Du Berlais 40/1 - I haven't backed it yet. I thought I'd put it up for now in the hope that Roddy might be able to let us know if the plan is to run. The horse is seriously well handicapped right now. He went up to 149 for winning a good summer race at Market Rasen (gd) but is back down to 135 following a string of disappointing efforts, including one over this CD behind Mac Tottie. Has good Haydock form (sft) and the trainer tends to target this race. Handicapped to make the cut too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Topham - Francky Du Berlais 40/1 - I haven't backed it yet. I thought I'd put it up for now in the hope that Roddy might be able to let us know if the plan is to run. The horse is seriously well handicapped right now. He went up to 149 for winning a good summer race at Market Rasen (gd) but is back down to 135 following a string of disappointing efforts, including one over this CD behind Mac Tottie. Has good Haydock form (sft) and the trainer tends to target this race. Handicapped to make the cut too.
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I've backed FRANCKY 40s and MAC TOTTIE 20s D.same reasons as you .I put it up on the topham thread.
I also did 2 in the scottish (1st and 7th) 2 in the national and 2 in the whitbread.
72 bets.
I did Kittysclight for the whitbread but after listening to CW it doesnt sound as if its going to run.
 
I've just stumbled across one for the Grand National and made it my biggest bet in the race by a mile:

Roi Mage 66/1 NRNB

There's a fair chance this one won't make the cut hence my keenness to go NRNB with it (in case they scratch it anyway) but I hadn't checked this one's form. Once I did I had to keep checking it over and over to see if my figure was right. There's obviously the chance that it isn't right because the time was slow but it does otherwise read very well and ties in with its French rating of not long ago which would work out at 160, whereas it would be off 140 on Saturday should enough come out.

I have no idea if its jumping is up to it or if it has the stamina but with that kind of discrepancy in its ratings, the odds with the concession make it a no-brainer for me. ("Fair enough," I hear the cries, "since you have no brain...")

It's had a quiet introduction to racing in Ireland since arriving not long ago. But while all eyes were on Cheltenham this one was going away stylishly from Agusta Gold (146 on Saturday) and Samcro (152) conceding them 15lbs and 6lbs (excluding claimers' allowances) over an extended 3m2f in soft ground at Down Royal. It also raced prominently, which I like in the National.

It might all be for zip if it doesn't get to run but that would be a no-lose situation anyway so I'm quite happy to give it as big a punt as I've had in the National for a long time.

A bit like me calling Will Smith a big jessie, knowing he isn't going to come over here and slap me on the chops.

PS - you can get 100/1 if you forego the NRNB concession.
 
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