The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I've just stumbled across one for the Grand National and made it my biggest bet in the race by a mile:

Roi Mage 66/1 NRNB

There's a fair chance this one won't make the cut hence my keenness to go NRNB with it (in case they scratch it anyway) but I hadn't checked this one's form. Once I did I had to keep checking it over and over to see if my figure was right. There's obviously the chance that it isn't right because the time was slow but it does otherwise read very well and ties in with its French rating of not long ago which would work out at 160, whereas it would be off 140 on Saturday should enough come out.

I have no idea if its jumping is up to it or if it has the stamina but with that kind of discrepancy in its ratings, the odds with the concession make it a no-brainer for me. ("Fair enough," I hear the cries, "since you have no brain...")

It's had a quiet introduction to racing in Ireland since arriving not long ago. But while all eyes were on Cheltenham this one was going away stylishly from Agusta Gold (146 on Saturday) and Samcro (152) conceding them 15lbs and 6lbs (excluding claimers' allowances) over an extended 3m2f in soft ground at Down Royal. It also raced prominently, which I like in the National.

It might all be for zip if it doesn't get to run but that would be a no-lose situation anyway so I'm quite happy to give it as big a punt as I've had in the National for a long time.

A bit like me calling Will Smith a big jessie, knowing he isn't going to come over here and slap me on the chops.

PS - you can get 100/1 if you forego the NRNB concession.
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I was going to PM you about this horse .I mentioned it in my blog when I suggested augusta gold as I thought it was beaten by a good horse,but I didnt think it would get in so I didnt bother.
 
Outsider said:
Grand national

POKER PARTY 100/1 nrnb w.hill

Has ran 3 times this season a chase,a hurdle and last time the cross country.when there was money for it,
Trained by HdB.
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HdB took out Chris's dream which allowed PP to get in.Rachael said he enjoyed himself in the cross country but the going on the Wednesday was too bad so pulled it up.
Done it again at 190 and 20 a place.
Owned by the guy who started up the sponsors.
 
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I've taken 250/1 Class Conti for the National, 6 places.

He appeared not to take to the race last year and is hard to fancy overall but is handicapped to run well on his form leading up to last year's race. 250/1 might make it worthwhile forgiving that run and allowing him another chance. He’s 22lbs better off with Run Wild Fred for 1½ lengths in the Thyestes.

He doesn't strike me as the type who'll be allowed to go off at that price come Saturday. The maximum price for outsiders is likely to be 150s.
 
Aintree, Thursday, Juvenile Hdle - Fautinette 20/1 - filly making her debut for Venetia Williams after the switch from Guillaume Macaire. Her French rating translates as 147 and she gets the allowance so considering the highest-rated male is Pied Piper on 145, 20/1 looks huge. I can see this price more than halving by the off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Topham - Francky Du Berlais 40/1 - I haven't backed it yet. I thought I'd put it up for now in the hope that Roddy might be able to let us know if the plan is to run. The horse is seriously well handicapped right now. He went up to 149 for winning a good summer race at Market Rasen (gd) but is back down to 135 following a string of disappointing efforts, including one over this CD behind Mac Tottie. Has good Haydock form (sft) and the trainer tends to target this race. Handicapped to make the cut too.
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Confirmed at the 48h dec stage so I've taken the 35/1.
 
Friday 1.45 - Fred 40/1 - 14lbs lower than at the end of the season before last, just four runs ago, and turns up with the owners’ retained jockey at just about his minimum weight. He’s had a decent break and maybe has come back to some kind of form in the interim but really it's just a gut-hunch in a race I expect LD to win, assuming it's trying.
 
For some reason the Nicholls horses seem uneasy in the betting ahead of tomorrow.

Yesterday evening I went in with a fairly hefty double on Pic D'Orhy and Clan Des Obeaux but they're drifting as though they're losing legs like a Tommy Cooper table.

I'm no great believer in being swayed off a horse by market drifts so I've gone in again (a little more tentatively) with the current odds working out at 23.75/1.

And I'm going for the thread record with the treble to include Monmiral at 10s for the treble at 271/1.

If Nicholls ends up having a right good day, so might I.
 
I've only just noticed Marracudja is in this Foxhunters'.

Got to have a shout on its old form. I've added him at 40/1.
 
Saturday 4.15 - The Hollow Ginge 33/1, 6 pl - young enough not to be as disappointing as his profile might suggest and his Hennessy form last season gives him a right shout. He probably ran to the same level first time out this season at Cheltenham and was hampered out of contention last time when going okay. The handicapper has cut him a decent amount of slack.
 
Too busy to post as much. But Deise Aba sticking out at the prices for me in the Nash. Should still be some 100s around. Ridiculous price. Takwn the Denise offer.

Any Second Now and Delta Work the other picks. Delta Work id be strong on if not for a tough race a few weeks ago.
 
EASYLAND GRAND NATIONAL 80/1

It goes against the grain to back a horse with 11s 8lb.but I cant forget his win over tiger roll by 17L as a 6 yr old which got him a rating of 167.
Then ran in a cross country hcap finishing 4th btn 9L giving 21 lb to the first 3.
Then went back for the 2021 cross country and tiger reversed the form.
This season he transferred to jonjo and ran in 2 hurdle races and then led for 24 fences before pulling up.
He has been dropped 8 or 9 lb for future races but if this is the plan then he could be thereabouts.
If it was being aimed at the whitbread then surely they wouldnt be giving it a hard race .
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday 4.15 - The Hollow Ginge 33/1, 6 pl - young enough not to be as disappointing as his profile might suggest and his Hennessy form last season gives him a right shout. He probably ran to the same level first time out this season at Cheltenham and was hampered out of contention last time when going okay. The handicapper has cut him a decent amount of slack.
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Although I like EMPIRE STEEL 20/1 I also think THE HOLLOW GINGE has a big chance and have backed both.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday 1.45 - Fred 40/1 - 14lbs lower than at the end of the season before last, just four runs ago, and turns up with the owners’ retained jockey at just about his minimum weight. He’s had a decent break and maybe has come back to some kind of form in the interim but really it's just a gut-hunch in a race I expect LD to win, assuming it's trying.
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In a really trappy race, I've added a couple more longshots:

Navajo Pass 33/1
Garry Clermont 22/1

NP was involved in that stupid-fast pace at Haydock in the race won by Tommy's Oscar with Global Citizen not beaten far.
GC was involved in that big race at Ascot with Tritonic and Metier. Good form and I reckon he's under the radar at this price.
 
Taking the longshot scattergun to the Topham as well:

Pink Eyed Pedro 25/1
Riders Onthe Storm 40/1
Regal Encore 66/1
 
3.30 Paint The Dream 25/1, 4 pl - Doesn't really have it on the ratings but, for me, was visually very impressive last time and the extra place is the deciding factor in nominating it. If one or more of the favourites don't run their race - always possible at this meeting - he could have a shout.
 
I'm rolling with the Lanzarote form in the opener, and have backed Quinto Do Mar (general 25/1). Think he was slightly unlucky in the Martin Pipe, and hoping a return to a sharper track will suit.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm rolling with the Lanzarote form in the opener, and have backed Quinto Do Mar (general 25/1). Think he was slightly unlucky in the Martin Pipe, and hoping a return to a sharper track will suit.
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I backed him in the MP and thought he ran pretty much his race. I've abandoned him today but maybe some sickness insurance is in order.
 
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