The 2022 Longshot Thread

Kicking myself for missing Le Ligerien earlier in the week at a big price (I backed him when he won Pointing back in November and was feeling smug) so did I go in on ex pointer Jepeck who I know loves the ground? Did I hell.....:(
I did redeem myself with Hydroplane ew just now and then realised I had forgotten to use my Bet365 free bet.....and back him on Betfair instead. Better than nothing I guess.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.
Thanks for that. I needed it as I usually back Jepeck but didn’t bother today!
The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (£100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.
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I have found one worth a go at tomorrow. My forms hit and miss so take it or leave it..most firms offering 4 places for the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post.

Fairyhouse 2.20 Batcio (20/1) is the oldest horse to go to post at 10 years of age but he hasn't been overraced in his career so far and truth be told his best form came with his last two chase wins last summer. He beat The West's Awake about 3 lengths and that horse was third behind a couple of Batcios rivals tomorrow in Poseidon and Grange Walk.

That win was the second time Batcio scored with a light weight and he gets these circumstances again tomorrow although he is now in a higher grade of race. Given how he won that day when beating The West Awake he did it comfortably and I feel he is an excellent each way price here tomorrow. He can be in the shake up.
 
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I can see where you're coming from with that selection, Marb. When I was going through the form it was on my mind that I might end up backing it but it's a tricky race.

The bookies aren't giving anything away with the shorter shots so I'm looking beyond them. My main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the saver does - Soviet Pimpernel 20/1. I think his price is down to his record of dodgy jumping but it looks like they're maybe giving it one last chance chasing before sending him back over hurdles, over which he would be very well handicapped. The same owner's Capuccimix is higher up my ratings on his chase form but SP wears the first colours with Blackmore booked. Looks like the last chance saloon and I'm prepared to pop in for a drink.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I can see where you're coming from with that selection, Marb. When I was going through the form it was on my mind that I might end up backing it but it's a tricky race.

The bookies aren't giving anything away with the shorter shots so I'm looking beyond them. My main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the saver does - Soviet Pimpernel 20/1. I think his price is down to his record of dodgy jumping but it looks like they're maybe giving it one last chance chasing before sending him back over hurdles, over which he would be very well handicapped. The same owner's Capuccimix is higher up my ratings on his chase form but SP wears the first colours with Blackmore booked. Looks like the last chance saloon and I'm prepared to pop in for a drink.
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Has someone of influence put this up? It's now 8/1 tops! I didn't see that coming.
 
Just spent a while putting up Españito Bello in the Fairyhouse 1.50 but the page kept freezing and not saving. Long story short, I took 50/1 to 4 places and 33/1 (3pl) w/out the hotpot.

Edit - fav is out. That explains what I was addressing my original post.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just spent a while putting up Españito Bello in the Fairyhouse 1.50 but the page kept freezing and not saving. Long story short, I took 50/1 to 4 places and 33/1 (3pl) w/out the hotpot.

Edit - fav is out. That explains what I was addressing my original post.
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Fifth. Might have got fourth if the jockey hadn't allowed him to be tightened up turning for home but it looked to me like it was trying and that's all I'll ever ask for.
 
Marb said:
I have found one worth a go at tomorrow. My forms hit and miss so take it or leave it..most firms offering 4 places for the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post.

Fairyhouse 2.20 Batcio (20/1) is the oldest horse to go to post at 10 years of age but he hasn't been overraced in his career so far and truth be told his best form came with his last two chase wins last summer. He beat The West's Awake about 3 lengths and that horse was third behind a couple of Batcios rivals tomorrow in Poseidon and Grange Walk.
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Ran well, Marb. Hope you got the fourth place.
 
Kempton Saturday 2.50 (Lanzarote) - William Henry 33/1 - I've been very impressed with what Sam Thomas has been doing this season and how his horses have been running. He also seems to have a knack of coaxing older horses back to something not far off their better old form so I've gone in early with this one as he's looks extremely well handicapped.

The horse is an old pal, having won the Coral Cup for me some years back so maybe there's an element of sentiment in backing him but he was rated 156 when he won his final race for Nicky Henderson (Feb 2020) and jumped badly right when still running pretty well in the G1 at Aintree behind Thyme Hill. Two runs right down the park this season have seen his mark plummet to 139. He won this race in 2018 off 145.

I've no idea if he's even an intended runner but I like the horse, the trainer and the price :cool:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kempton Saturday 2.50 (Lanzarote) - William Henry 33/1 - I've been very impressed with what Sam Thomas has been doing this season and how his horses have been running. He also seems to have a knack of coaxing older horses back to something not far off their better old form so I've gone in early with this one as he's looks extremely well handicapped.

The horse is an old pal, having won the Coral Cup for me some years back so maybe there's an element of sentiment in backing him but he was rated 156 when he won his final race for Nicky Henderson (Feb 2020) and jumped badly right when still running pretty well in the G1 at Aintree behind Thyme Hill. Two runs right down the park this season have seen his mark plummet to 139. He won this race in 2018 off 145.

I've no idea if he's even an intended runner but I like the horse, the trainer and the price :cool:
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Declared, so that's the first obstacle taken. Jack Tudor will take another 3lbs off. Not unhappy about that.

I've gone in again at 33/1 to 7 places.
 
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I've added Bold Plan at 40/1 (7pl) - Evan Williams pulled a rabbit out of the hat for me last week with Prime Venture - good going, the best I can do is pull a hair out of my erse - and he's always talked this one up. Another long-term plot? A Bold Plan, even? :whistle:

I might even try the forecast with William Henry!
 
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Good luck DO. I will be having two bets I think. One each way on Fosters Island who is bang in form and can be placed. Micky Hammond is the right type of trainer to bring a horse up in a grade like this and run well. He did it when Cornerstone Lad stepped up in grade albeit in different circumstances when he beat Buveir Dair in the Fighting Fifth.

On My Command is the other bottom weight and she is good form although about a third of the price of Fostersisland.

So an each way on Fosters and a win only bet on On My Command is what I am planning.
 
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William Henry and Bold Plan both blue pretty much across the board this evening. I might end up with the opporchancity of laying the win portions to no loss.
 
Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.
 
How's about a 233/1 shot for this weekend?

It just occurred to me earlier today to double-check where Adam Wedge was riding tomorrow for Evan Williams. It turns out he's at Warwick, presumably for No Rematch in the Classic rather than Bold Plan (25s still available) in the Lanzarote at Kempton. Given the form the trainer and jockey have been in this season in the big Saturday handicaps, I managed to snaffle some 12/1 about Rematched as back-up to the Enki horse. Following a wee lie-down and a coffee, it occurred to me to check the Williams double. By this point No Rematch was down to 8/1 tops so the double odds are somewhat reduced but 233/1 might not be bad if the money continues to come for them.

Could this be the longest-priced 'winner' for the thread and its previous incarnations?

Just a wee hopeful punt anyway.
 
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Is a drifter a good or bad thing.earlier in the week I backed HEAD TO THE STARS for the Warwick classic at 10/1 it has drifted to 33/1 now so I cashed out and reinvested.

In the Lanzarote I've done CALL ME LORD 28/1 topweight but only off 144.

985/1 double...I can dream.
 
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MONTE CHRISTO 240k 33/1 I feel this is over priced and overlooked.
3rd choice jockey could be a concern.C.Brace.
Although its 56 grand to the winner I still think owners like the Munirs would rather have a Cheltenham winner so this and Call Me Lord could possibly running with that in mind.
On a line through Ecco,monte has to find about 4L with Marie's Rock.
Green book looks to have a great chance but is only a 5 yr old and they dont have a great record.
So many with chances but at a lot shorter odds.
 
Outsider said:
MONTE CHRISTO 240k 33/1 I feel this is over priced and overlooked.
3rd choice jockey could be a concern.C.Brace.
Although its 56 grand to the winner I still think owners like the Munirs would rather have a Cheltenham winner so this and Call Me Lord could possibly running with that in mind.
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Yes, Outsider, it's right there at the top of my ratings but the jockey bookings are putting me off. I thought about backing it for the Coral Cup but only two bookies had it priced up earlier, both at 33/1.

I reckoned if it won tomorrow it would be unlikely to win the CC with a hike but if it doesn't win it might go out to 50s or 66s and I would be interested at that price.

I've no doubt it's got a bit of class.
 
MC is blue across the board this morning, Outsider. Somebody is hammering it :)

Warwick 1.50 - Any News 20/1 (Bet365) - shame there's only two places but fortune favours and all that. I'm not sure the favourite should be as short as he is and since AN is second-top on my figures he probably shouldn't be as long as he is. I can't say I fancy him strongly but I do think his price is more than double what it should be therefore worth an interest.
 
Desert Orchid said:
MC is blue across the board this morning, Outsider. Somebody is hammering it :)
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It’s not my money [emoji3] although I did have a small interest at 33s last night.
This one has often looked like running well only to fade at the business end but it’s a decent enough price. Just 5 places as the books offering more were only 20/1
 
Nobodys been hammering the horse There's been peanuts forhim in comparison to others like his stable companion and you can still have 33/1 on Betfair.

The reason a few horses have gone blue is because a lot of the bookies are playng on 6 even 7 places so they cut the price to compensate

.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Warwick 1.50 - Any News 20/1 (Bet365) - shame there's only two places but fortune favours and all that. I'm not sure the favourite should be as short as he is and since AN is second-top on my figures he probably shouldn't be as long as he is. I can't say I fancy him strongly but I do think his price is more than double what it should be therefore worth an interest.
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Ridden to pick up any scraps going but the front two didn't stop. Might have been a wee bit closer with a less negative ride but education looked the priority there.
 
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