The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I have no idea if the 2021 thread ended up showing a profit but it was a lot of fun along the way and found a fair old number of winners and loads of placed runners.

Time to start a new one for this calendar year.

At the moment I don't have one for Saturday but I'm going to start this thread with a truly mental one, one which probably won't even run, but it's one I like and the odds are genuinely long.

2022 Champion Hurdle - Tommy's Oscar 100/1 - only two firms are pricing him up - none were last night - but if they're even thinking about the Champion Hurdle for him then they could pick tomorrow's handicap at Musselburgh easily. Alternatively, they could save him for the Betfair Hurdle as he could have the winning of that too, if my figure for him is accurate. (Big if, on all counts.)

Either way, I think this fella is a lot better than his current 150 mark. I accept he'll need to be 20lbs better than that to beat Honeysuckle but 15lbs would put him in the mix with the best of the others. Even 15lbs is a big ask but I reckon he's already 10lbs better so maybe he only has another 5lbs to find.

He only got in front late last time but it was a slow-slow-fast race in much softer ground than the time before at Haydock when they went fast on decent ground and he hacked up. The later race might also have come a fraction soon but the Haydock race is the one for which I have a very big mark for him. It was a deep field, all trying, and they went fast but he picked them up effortlessly from not far off the pace and sauntered clear.

If he wins tomorrow and they even mention the Champion Hurdle, the bookies will introduce or cut him to 50s, less if he's very impressive.

And all this is before I've even started my Hogmaneigh bevvy.:o
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Fair play to you for putting him up when you did Maurice. Credit is where credit is due.

I am starting to really like this horse.

He deserves his place in the Champion Hurdle line up win lose or draw.
 
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Cheers, Marb.

Hughes and Woods somewhat killed that race today as a meaningful contest with that stupid pace. I'd have been raging if I'd backed either. That furlong turning for home was about 10 seconds!

What I will say is that Global Citizen goes straight into my tracker for doing so well in the circumstances.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, Marb.

Hughes and Woods somewhat killed that race today as a meaningful contest with that stupid pace. I'd have been raging if I'd backed either. That furlong turning for home was about 10 seconds!

What I will say is that Global Citizen goes straight into my tracker for doing so well in the circumstances.
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Yes good point about Global Citizen.

I think he was on my radar as a good horse a year or two ago. He did have another wind operation recently and he looked much happier today.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
From the 2021 Thread:

{Royale Pagaille 50/1}

I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
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I was hoping for an easier win than that but Sam Brown is no mug. Still, the price has shortened as anticipated so no complaints.
 
Fantastic ride from Charlie Deutsch

Well picked DO although he’d need to be pulling further clear of Sam Brown to be a serious GC contender. Still should be a decent cash out or lay opportunity


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viking said:
Fantastic ride from Charlie Deutsch

Well picked DO although he’d need to be pulling further clear of Sam Brown to be a serious GC contender. Still should be a decent cash out or lay opportunity


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That's a bit hard.giving 16 lb to the 2nd so a good display and deserves to be in the gold cup.
Well done DO 50s looks good ew value.and Tommy's oscar the same.
 
Outsider said:
Seaston spirit 335L won the sussex national last year and seriously hampered this year and pu.33/1
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G/L, Outsider.

My own longshot for today runs in the same race: Echo Watt 50/1, 5 pl - will relish the heavy ground. He won a race last season in pretty bottomless ground and it may be that he acts better in it than the others. He gets to carry least weight thanks to his tidy claimer and it could be an attritional slog in which no prisoners are taken. (It's actually a very competitive wee race on paper. Unfortunately they don't run on paper.)
 
I love an owner trainer and follow it often with the lesser names and one that also goes in the 3.35 is Mitford-slade's runner SAMUEL JACKSON, won the Devon National last year off a pound lower, you can write off the last two runs as both over an inadequate 3m its last two wins, over 28 & 30f, the horse has a healthy strike rate of 27%, acts on the ground Soft or Heavy and an e/w punt at 20's
I would say its never fallen under rules, so I have prob just giving it the kiss of D...... :lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
G/L, Outsider.

My own longshot for today runs in the same race: Echo Watt 50/1, 5 pl - will relish the heavy ground. He won a race last season in pretty bottomless ground and it may be that he acts better in it than the others. He gets to carry least weight thanks to his tidy claimer and it could be an attritional slog in which no prisoners are taken. (It's actually a very competitive wee race on paper. Unfortunately they don't run on paper.)
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Well done D.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My own longshot for today runs in the same race: Echo Watt 50/1, 5 pl - will relish the heavy ground. He won a race last season in pretty bottomless ground and it may be that he acts better in it than the others. He gets to carry least weight thanks to his tidy claimer and it could be an attritional slog in which no prisoners are taken. (It's actually a very competitive wee race on paper. Unfortunately they don't run on paper.)
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Third.

Job done.
 
Anadin said:
I love an owner trainer and follow it often with the lesser names and one that also goes in the 3.35 is Mitford-slade's runner SAMUEL JACKSON, won the Devon National last year off a pound lower, you can write off the last two runs as both over an inadequate 3m its last two wins, over 28 & 30f, the horse has a healthy strike rate of 27%, acts on the ground Soft or Heavy and an e/w punt at 20's
I would say its never fallen under rules, so I have prob just giving it the kiss of D...... :lol:
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Just noticed this finished fourth at 20/1. Hope you got the fourth place, Anadin!
 
Galmoy Hdl, Thursday - Mr Adjudicator 33/1 - I just wonder if they maybe eased off on Klassical Dream after his win over the holidays ahead of getting him ready for either the DRF and/or Cheltenham. Given his penalties here, his margin over the others doesn't justify a price of 4/9 so I’m tempted to take him on but will also be checking the betting without him, in which case Mr Adjuducator might be of further interest.
 
Mr A is now 20/1 tops in a few places and generally shorter. Happy for now to be ahead of the curve...

The down side is that I won't now get a decent price in market without the fav.
 
Ryanair - Fanion D'Estruval 50/1 - I was tempted to accept 25/1 NRNB but my gut tells me they will run the horse (they did with Aso who ran very well) so I want to let this one ride to small stakes.

I find myself going pretty high with Saturday's form against Phoenix Way. It was a two-horse race on paper for me in advance and that's certainly how it worked out. (I can't believe it never occurred to me to back the forecast.)

I did a time-comparison elsewhere with the Clarence House (which, to me, really serves to emphasise what brilliant form that is) but this was a hot race in its own right and I reckon a 6lbs rise for the winner is very lenient although the official handicapper's mark is dictated by procedures. My figures aren't.

I reckon time will show that Fanion D'Estruval was facing an impossible task in trying to give the winner 19lbs, especially with the winner getting a more energy-efficient ride (which is no criticism of the runner-up's jockey).

Still just seven, there's every chance Fanion D'Estruval will improve another 5-7lbs by the festival and, on my figures, that would put him very much in the mix for the places and if anything should happen to prevent Allaho from showing his true form, who knows what might happen...
 
Interesting DO.

What race should Harry Fry target with Phoenix Way?

Theres 16s and even 20s in a place freely available on him for both the Ultima and Paddy Power Plate.

He has become one of my seasons favs now because his win on Saturday was one of the best handicap chase performances I have seen this season, especially over that type of distance.

Should they step him back up to 3 miles or go to The Plate over 2M4F?
 
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Marb said:
Interesting DO.

What race should Harry Fry target with Phoenix Way?

Theres 16s and even 20s in a place freely available on him for both the Ultima and Paddy Power Plate.

He has become one of my seasons favs now because his win on Saturday was one of the best handicap chase performances I have seen this season, especially over that type of distance.

Should they step him back up to 3 miles or go to The Plate over 2M4F?
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In my notes I had him likely to improve for the drop back from 3m last weekend so I would rule out the Ultima even though he won a Pertemps Qualifier over 3m 1f.

I know the trainer isn't highly thought of on here but I'd trust his judgment. He did alright by the horse on Saturday, greatly helped by a brilliant ride by the claimer.
 
Thyestes - Class Conti 28/1 - second and third in this race in the last two years and I'm not convinced this race is as deep as then. He's a pound lower than last year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Galmoy Hdl, Thursday - Mr Adjudicator 33/1 - I just wonder if they maybe eased off on Klassical Dream after his win over the holidays ahead of getting him ready for either the DRF and/or Cheltenham. Given his penalties here, his margin over the others doesn't justify a price of 4/9 so I’m tempted to take him on but will also be checking the betting without him, in which case Mr Adjuducator might be of further interest.
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Mr A back out to 40s told its own story but at least it looks like I got the idea of opposing the favourite right.
 
Saturday, Doncaster 3.20 - Storm Control 20/1, 5 pl - I thought this one had lost the plot, to be honest, but he returned to form in some style last week and the 10lbs claimer has an impressive record. Yes, he rode the horse last time but it may be that the horse is just back in form, in which case it could be thrown in on its best form. Not my main bet in the race but certainly worth keeping onside at the prices and place terms.
 
Cheltenham, Supreme Hurdle - I Like To Move It 40/1 NRNB - you can get 50s without the concession but I'm happy to go shorter for now.

This one is very much on my radar for the Betfair Hurdle (only around the 12s mark so I'm holding off on backing him for that) but if he went and won that off 138 he'd be cut to 14s or so. Last year Soaring Glory won the Betfair off 133 and went off at 10/1 in the Supreme. I don't see ILTMI winning the Supreme but I can always lay off the win and place portions separately for a no-loss situation.

If It doesn't run, no harm done.
 
Cheltenham 1.55 - Gaelik Coast 25/1, 4 places - when I put out my figures and thoughts the other night I had Torn And Frayed (12/1) as an each-way selection but I'm buggered if I can find the bet in my accounts. I can't help thinking I must have forgotten to back it so the increasing smugness I felt all day yesterday as the price kept dropping has turned to a grimace of frustration as there's no way I'm punting it at such short odds now. The main fancies were Magic Saint and Galahad Quest but they were 4s and 5s tops at the time and I wasn't going to back both and didn't want to pick one over the other. The big outlier on my ratings compared with prices was Gaelik Coast but I was happy to wait until this morning for the stronger market before getting involved. It's now a lovely price and worth chancing, I reckon. If it turns out it's my only bet in the race, I'll accept that as a small risk for decent reward.
 
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