The 2022 Longshot Thread

[Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.]

Took 5/1 on Thursday for today's race, biggest bet of the weekend so a good result all round. The price for the Albert Bartlett has halved with Bet365 and shortened with a few others but PP/Betfair are still going 33/1 so I've gone in again. I reckon they'll adjust that shortly.

They've adjusted it now. !6/1.

Job pretty much done.
 
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William Henry was very disappointing. I was encouraged when it raced prominently early but its goose was cooked after about half a mile.

Bold Plan got a very disappointingly negative ride, anchored early and then hampered by the faller. It was never going to be competitive after that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
[Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.]

Took 5/1 on Thursday for today's race, biggest bet of the weekend so a good result all round. The price for the Albert Bartlett has halved with Bet365 and shortened with a few others but PP/Betfair are still going 33/1 so I've gone in again. I reckon they'll adjust that shortly.

They've adjusted it now. !6/1.

Job pretty much done.
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I'm not sure his running style would see him last home in the AB. Would guess he'd go for the Ballymore.
 
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Only a guess. I left him go unbacked today and seriously annoyed with myself. He was never getting beat.
 
Slim said:
I'm not sure his running style would see him last home in the AB. Would guess he'd go for the Ballymore.
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With all respect Slim that looks highly unlikley

Archie Watson did already say he would be aimed at The Albert Bartlett and he looked like he could have gone round again today

laying him off at the moment is for the AB is not an option at the moment.
There is 3 pounds to lay at 34 and up until 2 minutes ago there was only 3 quid at 2.52 to back him but someone is now offering 18 for 3 quid.

As far as the Ballymore goes he's 31/1 on the machine and was only added today and there has been zero takers
 
Desert Orchid said:
William Henry was very disappointing. I was encouraged when it raced prominently early but its goose was cooked after about half a mile.

Bold Plan got a very disappointingly negative ride, anchored early and then hampered by the faller. It was never going to be competitive after that.
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Well done with Stag Horn D.but I disagree over Bold plan.i tried backing it in running starting at 25s but every time I pressed back it shortened and when it reached 11/1 thankfully I gave up.but I thought it was travelling well.
 
Outsider said:
Well done with Stag Horn D.but I disagree over Bold plan.i tried backing it in running starting at 25s but every time I pressed back it shortened and when it reached 11/1 thankfully I gave up.but I thought it was travelling well.
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I don't think it was a non-trier, Outsider. I just thought it was a very negative ride compounded by being hampered. It did start to look dangerous, seemingly going well, about four out but the effort of getting on to the coat tails of the peloton did for it. At least it showed some promise.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think it was a non-trier, Outsider. I just thought it was a very negative ride compounded by being hampered. It did start to look dangerous, seemingly going well, about four out but the effort of getting on to the coat tails of the peloton did for it. At least it showed some promise.
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I read Evan William's said that he had the race in mind for a while so it's worth keeping an eye on.
 
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Festival 3m6f Novices Chase - Annual Invictus 66/1 - also holds an entry in the [ex] RSA for which he's the same price but that will be a very hot race and, on breeding, I think might improve significantly for the longer trip. A winning pointer over 3m (aren't they all?), he's been kept to 2.5m and shorter under rules so far and wasn't beaten at all far in the Betfair Hurdle, which is strong form. I reckon a lot of Irish trainers would have steered a similar path with him, not asking him too much until into his chasing career and anticipating progress for a trip over fences. I reckon there's more chance of the field for this race cutting up than the RSA and, while I might just be throwing away my money, the stakes are modest for a low-risk-high-reward punt.
 
From the 2021 Thread:

Desert Orchid said:
I've no idea if they plan to run him this weekend in the Betfair Chase or wait for the Hennessy but, either way, I've taken Royale Pagaille at 50/1 for the Gold Cup.

It strikes me that his price is down to his not running his race in this year's race and could be completely wrong.

He's still a very young horse and still entitled to improve significantly into this season. He wouldn't need to win either at Haydock or Newbury, just run very well and his price will contract.

It may also be that he's very ground dependent, which would be the main worry for me as I think it could be a dry winter (based on the long-term forecasts I've checked).

I still believe he is a 175-180 horse waiting to happen and that would put him right in the mix.
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I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
 
My a/p Cheltenham bets.
THE JAM MAN pertemps hurdle 33/1
SHANTREUSSE alfred bartlett 66/1
ONTHEROPES national hunt chase 25/1
SIRUH DU LAC pp plate 40/1
DUFFLE COAT coral cup 33/1
CABOT CLIFFS county hurdle npa yet.

Dont know if they will run but on my previous experiences they probably wont.
 
Desert Orchid said:
From the 2021 Thread:



I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
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Good luck DO though I am not sure Venetias horse is coming into the Peter Marsh this year in the same form as last season. Remastered was well held the last day by a 126 rated horse.

I am fairly sweet on Kalooki if he is indeed declared. He didn't jump that fluently the last day and looked beat several times but still got up to win.

Looks to me like he can put in a lifetime best in this and can go very close. Happy with the 10s I took earlier. I reckon I will get an excellent run for my money. I think he will enjoy getting weight off your fancy. Looking forward to it anyway whatever happens.
 
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Great way to get the Willie Mullins' novices on side cheaply.

Dysart Dynamo (Supreme)
Sir Gerhard (Ballymore)

26/1 the double will do me. 24/1 ok too.
 
Lingfield Friday 3.35 - Destrier 33/1 - Hard to know what to make of this one but it's a very valuable prize and Skelton is more than capable of putting one away for a race like this. Destrier gets to run off 117 here but had a chase OR of 151 at one stage so he could be very well handicapped if they can coax him back to some kind of form. The 7lbs claimer looks like he carries a fair bit of trust and is the third most successful rider for the stable. That allowance might not do him any harm. Obviously not my main bet in the race but worth a pop, I reckon.
 
Lingfield 1.50 - Beaufort West 50/1, 3 pl - next to no chance on his two runs this season but was a close second off 128 the last time he encountered heavy ground and he might just need these conditions. He's off 115 here. Page Fuller rode him last season and takes over for the first time this. Three places in a seven-runner race nails the value element.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lingfield Friday 3.35 - Destrier 33/1 - Hard to know what to make of this one but it's a very valuable prize and Skelton is more than capable of putting one away for a race like this. Destrier gets to run off 117 here but had a chase OR of 151 at one stage so he could be very well handicapped if they can coax him back to some kind of form. The 7lbs claimer looks like he carries a fair bit of trust and is the third most successful rider for the stable. That allowance might not do him any harm. Obviously not my main bet in the race but worth a pop, I reckon.
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Wow. Thanks for that! Nodded off ( it’s my age y’know) and missed the last race. Woke up to find it had placed at 66/1!No: think I got 150/1….glad I waited till today to back it
 
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moehat said:
Wow. Thanks for that! Nodded off ( it’s my age y’know) and missed the last race. Woke up to find it had placed at 66/1!No: think I got 150/1….glad I waited till today to back it
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I didnt.bet365 only paid 4 places only a neck off 4th.
 
Outsider said:
I didnt.bet365 only paid 4 places only a neck off 4th.
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Oh no. Gutting. I only realised WHill were paying first 5 when I woke up. And I nearly backed it last night and would have missed out on BOG: I thought if I didn’t do it last night I would forget but then forgot I’d backed it today. You win some you lose some, I guess. I backed Top Ville Ben at the last minute as well as I usually follow the Kirby horses so it’s been a rare good day for me today. There was a pattern a while back where, if I had a bet on the last race of the day but didn’t listen to it it would win. Maybe I’ll go back to that again.
 
Were Hills going first 5??

I was out from about the back of 11am and only just got back in. I watched the replay without knowing the result and was happy enough that it ran well into 5th. Then I saw the price!

I'd have got the BOG with Bet365 but not the 5th place!

Still, I'm fair chuffed that you managed to get a very decent return from it :D
 
Stag Horn has not been entered for the Ballymore so if he does go for the AB that 33/1 DO took is looking like a fair bet but one worry is Skybet have pushed him back out to 20/1
on the bright side he's only 14/1 on the exchange and layers are being very cautious. If Archie Watson comes out and says he goes for definite I can see him hitting single figures.

No Blackjack Ketchum or Bobsworth to worry about he might just be on to something
 
Haydock 1.25 - Pikar 20/1 w/o Jonbon (2pl) - this one is very weak in the market (I think 12/1 was the top price in this market last night) but he interests me. Only beaten a length by Knappers Hill first time up and not far off the lead when tipping up last time, he's potentially over-priced. If the big drift (33/1 to 66/1 in the main market) is a true reflection of stable confidence he's already just about last but Destrier drifted ominously yesterday. Knowing my luck, it will finish fourth.
 
Haydock 2.35 - Lake View Lad 20/1, 4 places - last night I wrote elsewhere:

I don’t need to back Royale Pagaille (11/4) as I’m on him for the Gold Cup at 50/1 (more than once) so the win will see his price shorten and that will do me. Sam Brown (11/1) hacked up in the novice chase at this meeting two years ago and is lightly raced since. In theory he’s possibly still open to improvement but probably not the notional 10lbs I’d allow for novices into seasoned campaigners. Lord Du Mesnil (10/1) might have this as his seasonal target since he’s tried the National and bombed but he’s vulnerable to the favourite and others. Empire Steel (4/1) is rated the winner of an average renewal of his last race but there are no guarantees that he would have won. Backing him is a matter of backing one’s own view of that race. I was never convinced Remastered (9/2) would have won the Hennessy and his recent run reinforced that view. It’s possible that race was too soon after Newbury, though, so I wouldn’t try and put off those who thought he’d have won there. Lake View Lad has done virtually nothing since beating Santini, Native River and Frodon at Aintree thirteen months ago, for which he went up to 162, so his 16lbs lower mark here and price (18/1 and lengthening) make him tempting. But I do hope Royale Pagaille proves too good.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 1.25 - Pikar 20/1 w/o Jonbon (2pl) - this one is very weak in the market (I think 12/1 was the top price in this market last night) but he interests me. Only beaten a length by Knappers Hill first time up and not far off the lead when tipping up last time, he's potentially over-priced. If the big drift (33/1 to 66/1 in the main market) is a true reflection of stable confidence he's already just about last but Destrier drifted ominously yesterday. Knowing my luck, it will finish fourth.
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Dropped back quite dramatically turning for home, looking all over the 66/1 (or longer) shot, before finishing well into fifth. Probably after a handicap mark.

I'll get that money back some day.
 
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