The 2022 Longshot Thread

Faylaq doesn't know he's in 3 figures...and there's an argument that says he is only because of the stable. But the stable can pull unexpected big-priced winners, witness a bumper runner about 7 months ago that went in at 50-1 and same horse followed up at 18s over hurdles a few days ago.

None of that means Faylaq will be ready today but - if he is - there will be good arguments afterwards that the writing was on the wall all along (in invisible ink).
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 3.00 - Bollin Joan 28/1, 4 pl - joint-second top on my ratings on a generous interpretation of her seasonal debut so, for me, shouldn't be anywhere near this price.
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I agreed with this and took 33s.
Glad you put it up as I'd forgot about it.thought it ran a decent race at hamilton.
Well done D.
 
Slim said:
Yorkshire Cup
Thunderous 20/1 BetVictor 16/1 General

The race will cut up and Stradavarius is a 7yo and has to be taken on. I've no idea if Trueshan will run but not hard to see 5 runners. Thunderous ran very well at Chester and running to around 110 will be more than enough to place.
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Great call. :thumbsup:
 
Great call with Bollin, DO.

One for me tomorrow who qualifies as a longshot.

Newmarket 1.50 I like Savvy Victory as a longshot. He was one of those 2 year old colts who kept threatening to win his maiden but finished second or third a few times.

He then won first time out this season before a respectable third on soft ground the last day when third, beaten about a dozen lengths behind Changingoftheguard with New London back in second in the Chester Vase.

I think Savvy Victory is interesting back at ten furlongs and maybe he can out run the big odds in this lesser race against a few unknown quantities, including the short priced Charlie Appleby and Godolphin favourite.

Edit - I would have liked one more horse in the field, like a 200/1 outsider as the each way terms would be much better with three places, but anyways, nevermind....
 
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Marb said:
Great call with Bollin, DO.

One for me tomorrow who qualifies as a longshot.

Newmarket 1.50 I like Savvy Victory as a longshot. He was one of those 2 year old colts who kept threatening to win his maiden but finished second or third a few times.

He then won first time out this season before a respectable third on soft ground the last day when third, beaten about a dozen lengths behind Changingoftheguard with New London back in second in the Chester Vase.

I think Savvy Victory is interesting back at ten furlongs and maybe he can out run the big odds in this lesser race against a few unknown quantities, including the short priced Charlie Appleby and Godolphin favourite.

Edit - I would have liked one more horse in the field, like a 200/1 outsider as the each way terms would be much better with three places, but anyways, nevermind....
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Some bookies are offering three places with just the seven runners in this race, for their online customers anyway. Fair play to them. It's one aspect of betting that has definately got more punter friendly the last few years.
 
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Definitely worth exploiting.

Meantime, a sneaky approach to landing longshots tomorrow:

Alcohol Free - 5/1 (3 pl) without the fav
Wizard D'Amour 4/1
Another Batt (Thirsk) 4/1

The doubles work out at 24/1 and 29/1 (twice),and the treble 149/1 and I really fancy all three.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've been unable to resist a little sniff at Faylaq at 100/1 in this race. Market weakness is screaming sad, mad, bad, but I'd be projectile-vomiting if it won and I wasn't on.
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Didn't run at all badly. Certainly outran its odds and beat the favourite!

Unlikely to get 100/1 next time, though. Sir Chauvelin seemed to be sulking from early on.
 
Bangor 105 Dee Eire 33/1 - 40/1 places. Looks a really poor race, so going for one with trainer In form and the booking of Kevin Brogan catches my eye.
 
Sir Jim 7.20 Utt 20-1 BF Sportsbook and PP, 18 B3 and WH

A likely Shirocco improver in h/caps for Ruth Jefferson. Right at the foot of the weights in this Class 5 with 10-2.

Hunted round in 3 novices with no sign of being put into the race in any.

First handicap was a non event, they actually jumped less than half of the 13 hurdles (low sun, I believe). Lots to say the race can safely be ignored. SJ jumped most of the 6 well enough from what I could see. Doesn't tell us much though.

The very tidy Thomas Wilmott is up for the first time, let's hope he can do another Romeo Brown.

The rest of these have various question marks (as you'd expect with four of the eight being over 8 years old). The younger ones don't obviously look up to anything. This includes the NTD favorite Cossack Dancer, with best jumping form against Shaws Cross (if Sir Jim has anything approximating any potential I'd expect him to nigh on lap Shaws Cross in a match). But CD is at least fairly lightly raced, and does have a FTO reasonably promising Newbury bumper run in his history.

A negative for SJ - it's a little disconcerting that they put a tongue tie on for the 2nd novice run. Interpretation could be they wanted to get some sort of performance (and didn't), or maybe it was just a test. TT was left off for the 3rd run.

Potential is there if you're prepared to overlook that.

I have no idea which way it might move during the day tomorrow. A big drift would probably be shouting leave it alone. But 20 seems fair as a start point in the overall context and with seemingly weak competition. I'm struggling to see Sir Jim moving out from there, and if there is anything hidden then this race could see a few pennies coming.

PS extra note...it's a fair way down from N.Yorkshire to Uttoxeter
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Didn't run at all badly. Certainly outran its odds and beat the favourite!

Unlikely to get 100/1 next time, though. Sir Chauvelin seemed to be sulking from early on.
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Lost both front shoes. A pretty big shame - a run that was a little too promising for our purposes :-( though I guess this means the Magnet is off the agenda.
 
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These are my figures for the Lockinge:

[TABLE="width: 407"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]Odds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Baaeed[/TD]
[TD]125 [/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]2/5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alcohol Free[/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Real World[/TD]
[TD]118 [/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mother Earth[/TD]
[TD]114 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sir Busker[/TD]
[TD]110 [/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chindit[/TD]
[TD]112 [/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] New Mandate[/TD]
[TD]111 [/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Etonian[/TD]
[TD]103 [/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]t[/TD]
[TD]200[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sunray Major[/TD]
[TD]104 [/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


I've taken 50/1 Sir Busker. On my ratings he should be in the same price ball park as Mother Earth, although I'd suggest her price is on the short side relative to the task facing her. Both should be longer than Alcohol Free at any rate.

Edit - I'm probably being optimistic about Sir Busker's 'p'. His ratings peaked in the Queen Anne last season and he hasn't improved on it since but I'm not completely ruling out the possibility that he can progress again as we approach the summer.
 
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