Into 8/1 now.
The 2022 Longshot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
Into 8/1 now.
Into 8/1 now.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Ran well for fifth and among much shorter priced rivals. No complaints. It was always just about eking out some value. This time it just didn't pay.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Ran a stormer. He's the type who runs to the level of his oppo a lot of the time so those type bets when he's 50s make a lot of sense.
chaumi
Rookie
In case anyone did have a couple of quid and doesn't know what happened (there is still nothing up on RP).....
Turned into a farce. They jumped 4 of the 12, pretty much a 3 mile flat race! I'm not convinced it was a case of 'the cat is out of the bag', the contraction may just have been along the lines of anyone looking at the race and falling on SJ as a potential improver in a poor race. Certainly, it looked bad, but there's an angle that says it could yet lead to another appearance on another day.
I hope anyone that did back it was watching/listening early enough to second guess what might happen and take appropriate action!
chaumi
Rookie
In a race that's very much a case of 'any one of 12 could win this' (hence fun stakes only are heavily advised), there's some reasoning that says both of these could be one of them....
5.00 Kill Tesseract 33 B3, Trans Wood 50 B3
Distance/ground/fences should suit both, jockey bookings look OK
Tesseract was once with Joseph O'Brien, obviously running in much more valuable races. Has one OK run for 'new' stable after a similar short break over perhaps an inadequate distance (which at least indicates he can still jump). Last race jumped poorly pretty much all the way but somehow was still within sight of the leaders around 4 out (over a half mile further race). Will have to jump better here, clearly, but that doesn't look impossible.
Trans Wood. Well, you have to subscribe to the view that there's one day left in the locker. But there's enough evidence to say that over this distance and ground he could still run close enough having dropped to a point where he's carrying 10-2 in this race with a claimer on board.
Probably the best call is to wait till 5 mins before the race and see if something around 80 or higher is available on the exchange on either one (or both).
5.00 Kill Tesseract 33 B3, Trans Wood 50 B3
Distance/ground/fences should suit both, jockey bookings look OK
Tesseract was once with Joseph O'Brien, obviously running in much more valuable races. Has one OK run for 'new' stable after a similar short break over perhaps an inadequate distance (which at least indicates he can still jump). Last race jumped poorly pretty much all the way but somehow was still within sight of the leaders around 4 out (over a half mile further race). Will have to jump better here, clearly, but that doesn't look impossible.
Trans Wood. Well, you have to subscribe to the view that there's one day left in the locker. But there's enough evidence to say that over this distance and ground he could still run close enough having dropped to a point where he's carrying 10-2 in this race with a claimer on board.
Probably the best call is to wait till 5 mins before the race and see if something around 80 or higher is available on the exchange on either one (or both).
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Just had a look at the Lockinge sectionals (available on the RTV results section) and Sir Busker had the second-highest closing sectional percentage, beaten only by Baaeed. He also had the slowest opening two furlongs both individually and on aggregate.
What I'm wondering is, could he have covered those first two furlongs faster without impacting on his finishing effort? Was he merely being ridden to pick up the scraps?
The overall sectional picture points to a race that wasn't over-fast in general [and therefore probably pretty fairly run].
Another thing I wondered about on seeing the replay was whether there was a better strip of ground up the centre. The group that raced there appeared to be a few lengths in front of the near side group from early on.
.
Not related to the thread, though, I do have to say something about Baaeed.
I've been doing ratings for about 40 years and seldom does it happen that a G1 horse with 125+ in its CV runs to that level first time up. They're usually 5-7lbs shy of that mark and then improve for the run. Baaeed has run to somewhere around his previous best first time up without being asked a serious question. I reckon this fella has a 130+ in his locker and maybe then some more.
On top of that, his dosage suggests 10f might suit him even better.
BAAEED
(GB) b. C, 2018 {2-f} DP = 5-1-19-5-0 (30) DI = 1.07 CD = 0.20
I wonder if Simon Rowlands has done a stride analysis on him.
And he's a smashing looking animal too. (Baaeed, not Simon
)
What I'm wondering is, could he have covered those first two furlongs faster without impacting on his finishing effort? Was he merely being ridden to pick up the scraps?
The overall sectional picture points to a race that wasn't over-fast in general [and therefore probably pretty fairly run].
Another thing I wondered about on seeing the replay was whether there was a better strip of ground up the centre. The group that raced there appeared to be a few lengths in front of the near side group from early on.
.
Not related to the thread, though, I do have to say something about Baaeed.
I've been doing ratings for about 40 years and seldom does it happen that a G1 horse with 125+ in its CV runs to that level first time up. They're usually 5-7lbs shy of that mark and then improve for the run. Baaeed has run to somewhere around his previous best first time up without being asked a serious question. I reckon this fella has a 130+ in his locker and maybe then some more.
On top of that, his dosage suggests 10f might suit him even better.
BAAEED
I wonder if Simon Rowlands has done a stride analysis on him.
And he's a smashing looking animal too. (Baaeed, not Simon
)
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chaumi
Rookie
Going by words from the stable yesterday there was no expectation of better than 4th and maybe 3rd, so 'ridden to pick up the scraps' is probably right.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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He's now very well handicapped and showed definite signs of the old ability last time but I reckon he'll be at least 25s on the day, maybe with extra places on offer.
I'm not too worried about extra places D.
His price is 20s generally so 25s seems reasonable.
chaumi
Rookie
Windsor Diamond 5.55 Tipp 33 Bet365
Just noticed this one has crept in after being one of the early reserves. Been waiting to see what she can do in a handicap over 2 miles on good ground. Ran well in a 2m maiden at Thurles last Nov, leading up to around the 2nd last and sticking on well to get up for 3rd after looking like she would drop out at the last into 5th or 6th. The ground that day looked on the soft side and potentially on good ground she'd have had a chance of keeping her head in front longer. The other side of the coin could be she only ran well because of the soft ground that day - some evidence suggests not, although there was a two and a half miler on heavy where she went off in front and was still there 2 or 3 out.
Have to overlook a heavy defeat in a yielding ground contest on the 3rd April. No obvious excuses there (other than a 66 day break, maybe).
Nothing else in this race looks any great shakes on the available evidence. Jockey has ridden a couple of winners for the Mullins yard. The hope is he gets her off in front and let's her show what she's made of.
Just noticed this one has crept in after being one of the early reserves. Been waiting to see what she can do in a handicap over 2 miles on good ground. Ran well in a 2m maiden at Thurles last Nov, leading up to around the 2nd last and sticking on well to get up for 3rd after looking like she would drop out at the last into 5th or 6th. The ground that day looked on the soft side and potentially on good ground she'd have had a chance of keeping her head in front longer. The other side of the coin could be she only ran well because of the soft ground that day - some evidence suggests not, although there was a two and a half miler on heavy where she went off in front and was still there 2 or 3 out.
Have to overlook a heavy defeat in a yielding ground contest on the 3rd April. No obvious excuses there (other than a 66 day break, maybe).
Nothing else in this race looks any great shakes on the available evidence. Jockey has ridden a couple of winners for the Mullins yard. The hope is he gets her off in front and let's her show what she's made of.
chaumi
Rookie
Well, that probably blows the good ground/2m theory out of the water. On the plus side, it should have disguised any ability (if there is any) well enough, and maybe soft ground is the answer.
chaumi
Rookie
Looks too big to me at 20-1 B3 (the others were all 22 about an hour ago but 18s now)............
Mountain Ash 5.10 Bath
This is a low-level race and he'd only have to improved a little from 3 to 4 - and reproduce form in other similar races on soft ground at close to a mile last year - to go well in this.
The favourite (I think) is a false price, which is contributing to MA's odds.
Millman yard has been going reasonably well
Jockey booking doesn't scream out, but looks like the two normal stable jockeys are both at Goodwood
"A big horse that was still weak both physically and mentally last season but was mightily impressive when winning by four and a half lengths at Lingfield in May. He had his ideal conditions, soft ground on a straight track racing on the favoured stands side there but he ran with credit for the rest of the season, finishing runner up at Chepstow and Kempton in the autumn. He has strengthened up nicely over the winter and remains well handicapped off 53."
It possibly needs to rain. There does seem to be some soft in the current description, but probably not enough. Forecast suggests it might belt down during the day. The problem is in waiting to find out - logic says price has good prospects of contracting.
Mountain Ash 5.10 Bath
This is a low-level race and he'd only have to improved a little from 3 to 4 - and reproduce form in other similar races on soft ground at close to a mile last year - to go well in this.
The favourite (I think) is a false price, which is contributing to MA's odds.
Millman yard has been going reasonably well
Jockey booking doesn't scream out, but looks like the two normal stable jockeys are both at Goodwood
"A big horse that was still weak both physically and mentally last season but was mightily impressive when winning by four and a half lengths at Lingfield in May. He had his ideal conditions, soft ground on a straight track racing on the favoured stands side there but he ran with credit for the rest of the season, finishing runner up at Chepstow and Kempton in the autumn. He has strengthened up nicely over the winter and remains well handicapped off 53."
It possibly needs to rain. There does seem to be some soft in the current description, but probably not enough. Forecast suggests it might belt down during the day. The problem is in waiting to find out - logic says price has good prospects of contracting.
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Desert Orchid
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chaumi
Rookie
After the first 2 races at Bath (both sprints). Doesn't look soft enough to me. There are odd divots kicking up, but no obvious sign of rain coming (although that could change). The first race went to Grey Galleon, who does like a bit of soft. I think the key words there may be 'bit of'.
At this point, for anyone who had more than just a few quid for fun on early, I'd be looking at the ways out and take the hit if it then goes the 'wrong' way. If getting the early 20s there will be an out for next to nothing.
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chaumi
Rookie
Anthony Brittain's Asajumeiriah seemingly ran above what you might have expected in the York Class 2 just over a week ago, so he may have a good handle on how much Mondammej has up his sleeve/might have improved. And the two Newcastle races in the winter read quite well (not too far off Spycatcher in one of them over 6f, the Clipper Logistics time looked good?).
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I know I shouldnt,but when a horse goes in my alerts I do tend to follow over the cliff and when BOWERMAN 430 curragh won the Irish Lincoln I was impressed but hes been disappointing since really.tomorrow he runs over 1m 2f with its 10lb claimer on and I cant not back it at 50/1.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Mancini is out again today (Haydock 2.00). I saw 50s generally yesterday and decided to hold off for a drift. However, it's gone blue this morning so maybe now wouldn't be the time to abandon him. I still managed to get 50s for sickness insurance.
chaumi
Rookie
Not beaten far in the Plate on 3rd run last year and ran well enough at Chester last time to suggest the ability is still there (this race will now be 3rd run this season). Williams is certainly not over-bullish but does note he's been eased a little. Could be this race is the season main target? If so, would have been nice to see Probert up, but he's riding the Balding horse. Maybe the option wasn't there.