The 2022 Longshot Thread

Outsider said:
3rd and very well backed..
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Hit 9-2 at one point. But stuffed by two Shaw Class 5/6 eight and ten year-olds! At least the EW if getting on at big enough did no harm, but not a good indicator that PD is worth backing again unless big enough at somewhere like Chepstow or Bath.

Actually, it's worth keeping an eye open for Shaw younger horses coming through, he does well enough with these older types in lower grade at up to a mile and does have hot and cold periods. Dubai Elegance did the business again a bit later on yesterday. If you can get in at the start of a hot run (after a cold period), something can often go well unexpectedly with a string of duck eggs at a big price. Hit and miss, obviously, but a 66-1 winner will pop up one day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York 1.50 - On To Victory 20/1 - top on my figures and I like the booking of Crowley for it. It won the 2020 November Handicap off 1lb lower (100 here) and franked the form on his reappearance run last season when splitting Hukum (114) and Morando (104) and the King stable is in good form this spring on the Flat. The horse has had a wee break since last seen over hurdles and if it's freshened him up he can outrun his odds and on his best form could win. Not my main bet in the race, though.
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Beat me to it. Although I've been checking the forecast for rain the last couple of days, and there just doesn't seem to be any around that's worthwhile.

My first thoughts were it had the look and feel of Scarlet Dragon before the race back in June 20 at Ascot (memory is hazy but I'm pretty sure they had SD in the Nov H/C the year before but pulled it)

For OTV, there's a nagging feeling that at least some cut may be needed. Almost all good runs have been in something where there was an s, and the race at Haydock before the 2020 Nov HC was down as Good but you can see the divots flying (ran Stargazer to a neck, finishing well). Although didn't do a lot in last years Ebor which was run after a downpour, though a number didn't perform well as expected in that.

I'm kind of hoping they let OTV run, we get a respectable run on good ground (but not too respectable), then 33s or more at some point in the next 2 months elsewhere when it's softer. But good luck, Desert Orchid. I will almost certainly follow you in for a few quid for fun, hopefully in the mid 30s on the Exchange. Maybe they will have watered, but sadly this race is up first tomorrow (edit PS...one way round it....try to see how it's riding in the first furlong, hopefully, OTV will be a bit back, and the in-running price will be OK).
 
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Hurricane Ivor in the Clipper Logistics

Doesn't really fall into longshot territory at a best-priced 16-1, but since we have a few for York it will do no harm going here.

So, the Hurricane ran some nice races last year and the feeling was always there from early July onwards that we might be looking at a Group 2 performer, and ultimately maybe lower end Group 1. It all came together in the Portland and the Newbury Group 3 a week later, with the weak last run seemingly blamed on (too) soft ground.

The first run last year was weak, but followed up with a nice enough first UK win about 6 weeks later. The first run for this season is out of the way (no show in a Group 3, does look as if he was just there for the run) and the layoff was similar so indications are they may have it as part of the season plan. Small worry that last year's break of about 6 weeks from first to second may have played a part (only a couple of weeks break for this one) though the Group 3 win only 7 days after the Portland last year suggests any short break is not worrying. Indeed, you could argue that a big effort in a Portland followed by a Group 3 win a week later is a very strong marker for a smart performer.

Dangers abound, of course. But 16-1 seems fair to find out if Hurricane is up to Group 2 as a 5YO maybe yet to peak.

(Some) potential scenarios :

wins up to half a length, we're dancing. Watch for the rest of the season and enjoy

runs well, gets beaten 3 heads. Shame for prices later on, but will probably get the money back somewhere and still worth considering at a good enough price in another G1 or G2 (given that small doubt over whether this first break from first to second race is too short)

Gets beat 2 lengths or more, as above but we probably still see big enough prices later on and maybe they drop a level where an EW to nothing will be a valid option
 
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chaumi said:
Hurricane Ivor in the Clipper Logistics

Doesn't really fall into longshot territory at a best-priced 16-1, but since we have a few for York it will do no harm going here.

So, the Hurricane ran some nice races last year and the feeling was always there from early July onwards that we might be looking at a Group 2 performer, and ultimately maybe lower end Group 1. It all came together in the Portland and the Newbury Group 3 a week later, with the weak last run seemingly blamed on (too) soft ground.

The first run last year was weak, but followed up with a nice enough first UK win about 6 weeks later. The first run for this season is out of the way (no show in a Group 3, does look as if he was just there for the run) and the layoff was similar so indications are they may have it as part of the season plan. Small worry that last year's break of about 6 weeks from first to second may have played a part (only a couple of weeks break for this one) though the Group 3 win only 7 days after the Portland last year suggests any short break is not worrying. Indeed, you could argue that a big effort in a Portland followed by a Group 3 win a week later is a very strong marker for a smart performer.

Dangers abound, of course. But 16-1 seems fair to find out if Hurricane is up to Group 2 as a 5YO maybe yet to peak.

(Some) potential scenarios :

wins up to half a length, we're dancing. Watch for the rest of the season and enjoy

runs well, gets beaten 3 heads. Shame for prices later on, but will probably get the money back somewhere and still worth considering at a good enough price in another G1 or G2 (given that small doubt over whether this first break from first to second race is too short)

Gets beat 2 lengths or more, as above but we probably still see big enough prices later on and maybe they drop a level where an EW to nothing will be a valid option
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You are missing an option, simply forget about the horse. Too many punters get married to horses when they should be looking for better spots.
 
My favourite thread. How Is everyone? I have been trying to log back in since Cheltenham but I think my account was scrapped. Anyway finally been validated and can post. Had a small e/way on Cornell 1.00 Sedgefield. His last race is working out well but be may be going for a handicap mark?
 
Slim said:
You are missing an option, simply forget about the horse. Too many punters get married to horses when they should be looking for better spots.
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Yeah what chance Rohaan. Someone was touting him a couple of seasons ago, could have been Euro.
 
Mullins cast-offs...to English yards that you'd not normally be taking much notice of with a hurdler.

Winning the Swinton for Ann Duffield will go into the 'no, that can't happen' book forever. Exactly where it was consigned pre-race with two seconds thought, if that.

The other one for Pogson had the feel of maybe being somewhat of a plot (in hindsight, and after the race). While N'Golo was noted and went into the brain cells, I definitely wouldn't have seen that far back on Marjaman and picked up on the connection. Even if I had, the string of chase runs would have thrown me. But now, if you look at the chase runs you get a not beaten far in a Class 4 and similar in a Class 3...and last night, Hughes went to Southwell for just one runner, you can guess who without looking.

I don't have the tools to go back for any other examples. The big question is are these just two anomalies. Haven't noticed it before, but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't a thing.

But the underlying potential is.......

Mullins horse are inherently capable. it's in their bones.
When he let's them go, there's a fair chance it's because they're not up to (or at least he thinks they're not up to) winning at the levels he'd normally want
But that doesn't mean they're no-hopers (and we have huge evidence in a Swinton winner and at a much lower level, all be it limited evidence based on just two examples)

How to exploit?

Watch out for any leaving the Mullins yard for another trainer (I'm not sure how to do that, maybe Geegeez is the right tool with daily checks. Maybe there is a site or database somewhere that shows all sales? Don't think so, I've never seen anything.
Then watch the runs for the new trainer, watch for any patterns or indicators, and try to nail it on the day it all comes good unexpectedly.
 
Thanks, chaumi.

I put one up not long ago that is/was a Mullins 'cast-off'. If memory serves, it didn't do anything but it will probably come on to my radar again soon.
 
chaumi said:
Mullins cast-offs...to English yards that you'd not normally be taking much notice of with a hurdler.

Winning the Swinton for Ann Duffield will go into the 'no, that can't happen' book forever. Exactly where it was consigned pre-race with two seconds thought, if that.

The other one for Pogson had the feel of maybe being somewhat of a plot (in hindsight, and after the race). While N'Golo was noted and went into the brain cells, I definitely wouldn't have seen that far back on Marjaman and picked up on the connection. Even if I had, the string of chase runs would have thrown me. But now, if you look at the chase runs you get a not beaten far in a Class 4 and similar in a Class 3...and last night, Hughes went to Southwell for just one runner, you can guess who without looking.

I don't have the tools to go back for any other examples. The big question is are these just two anomalies. Haven't noticed it before, but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't a thing.

But the underlying potential is.......

Mullins horse are inherently capable. it's in their bones.
When he let's them go, there's a fair chance it's because they're not up to (or at least he thinks they're not up to) winning at the levels he'd normally want
But that doesn't mean they're no-hopers (and we have huge evidence in a Swinton winner and at a much lower level, all be it limited evidence based on just two examples)

How to exploit?

Watch out for any leaving the Mullins yard for another trainer (I'm not sure how to do that, maybe Geegeez is the right tool with daily checks. Maybe there is a site or database somewhere that shows all sales? Don't think so, I've never seen anything.
Then watch the runs for the new trainer, watch for any patterns or indicators, and try to nail it on the day it all comes good unexpectedly.
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That's a hell of a lot of work after a few random winners.
 
Yorkshire Cup
Thunderous 20/1 BetVictor 16/1 General

The race will cut up and Stradavarius is a 7yo and has to be taken on. I've no idea if Trueshan will run but not hard to see 5 runners. Thunderous ran very well at Chester and running to around 110 will be more than enough to place.
 
Slim said:
Yorkshire Cup
Thunderous 20/1 BetVictor 16/1 General

The race will cut up and Stradavarius is a 7yo and has to be taken on. I've no idea if Trueshan will run but not hard to see 5 runners. Thunderous ran very well at Chester and running to around 110 will be more than enough to place.
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Alan King was making very pessimistic comments about Trueshan turning up this morning. It would have to **** down or maybe if they drown it.
 
chaumi said:
Alan King was making very pessimistic comments about Trueshan turning up this morning. It would have to **** down or maybe if they drown it.
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I'm assuming it won't run. Those betting Stradavarius today thinking they are shrewd are the definition of SHROOD.
 
Slim said:
You are missing an option, simply forget about the horse. Too many punters get married to horses when they should be looking for better spots.
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I see your point re Hurricane Ivor but he's 20 on the machine for this and Minzaal is 4.4 - that cannot be right
 
Euronymous said:
I see your point re Hurricane Ivor but he's 20 on the machine for this and Minzaal is 4.4 - that cannot be right
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Minzaal falls under 'dangers abound', of course.

Quote from Burrows " He has been with me all winter, ticking over. Physically he has really strengthened up this year and I’ve had a good preparation with him. It’s the start of his season, so he will come on for it."

If you look at all the others, you can find odd holes and question marks bar a few of them (although I do recognize some of this is down to looking for the holes to fit the need, but that doesn't necessarily invalidate them).

Willie Haggas doesn't sound particularly disappointed in the Palace House run. Stiff 5 or (as proved) 5 and a half was reckoned to be optimal last year. So, for me, the question is around whether a fairly easy 6 is now dead on with another year under his belt...and I suspect that's a question that's in Haggas' mind too. He doesn't appear to be brimming with confidence, but the word 'hopeful' would probably fit....and it sounds like part of the reason for going for this was to avoid running in a Group 3 with a penalty.

Between 16 and 25-1 or 20 and maybe 30 odd tomorrow on the Exchange is debatably worth testing, and then go from there depending on how it goes. It could be that if he's ever going to get close to two or three of these over 6, tomorrow might be only day to find out.
 
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York 2.25 (Tuesday)

Devilwala 40/1 Bet365 BetVictor Parimatch Vbet 33/1 general

Running off 84 dropped to 6f for the first time since his 2yo career. That included a second in the Gimcrack beaten 2l by the now the 113 rated Minzaal. He also finished 4th beaten 2¾ by St Marks Basilica in the Dewhurst. He was a bust last year for David Loughnane but that resulted in him being dropped a staggering 18lbs. On his first run since being gelded he went off 16/1 over a mile at Ripon. He traded 4.5 in the run travelling nicely until being outstayed in 4th place.

The drop in trip is new, his mark on old form is a joke and he has run well at the track. Tim Easterby is not shy at targetting the meeting. He's got way too much going for him to be a general 33/1 shot.
 
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Slim said:
York 2.25 (Tuesday)

Devilwala 40/1 Bet365 BetVictor Parimatch Vbet 33/1 general

Running off 84 dropped to 6f for the first time since his 2yo career. That included a second in the Gimcrack beaten 2l by the now the 113 rated Minzaal. He also finished 4th beaten 2¾ by St Marks Basilica in the Dewhurst. He was a bust last year for David Loughnane but that resulted in him being dropped a staggering 18lbs. On his first run since being gelded he went off 16/1 over a mile at Ripon. He traded 4.5 in the run travelling nicely until being outstayed in 4th place.

The drop in trip is new, his mark on old form is a joke and he has run well at the track. Tim Easterby is not shy at targetting the meeting. He's got way too much going for him to be a general 33/1 shot.
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Pay attention, young man :cool:

Post #523 above:

Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York 2.25 - Devilwala 33/1 - did someone mention this recently on another thread? I have a vague recollection of seeing it mentioned somewhere. Anyway, apologies if anyone else has put it up and feel I'm jumping on their bandwagon. It isn't my intention. Devilwala started last season a Guineas prospect off 113 after being beaten less than three lengths in the Dewhurst for Ralph Beckett. He was beaten less than six lengths in the Craven but his form nosedived thereafter and he moved to David Loughnane in the summer. His form went further downhill and his rating accordingly. Gelded at the start of this year, he moved to Easterby and showed some promise at Ripon over a mile. I’m just curious that he turns up here looking, on jockey bookings, like the stable’s main hope when they had Count D’Orsay run so well last week. If the price goes out or place terms improve by Wednesday morning I can always go in again :)
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