The 2022 Longshot Thread

I went in again at 40s with 6 places today.

I think if Pricewise was putting it up it would be common knowledge by now and the price would have halved already.
 
York 2.25 Mr Lupton 21.0 on the machine. 2 runs - 2 wins at this York, May meeting. Won this race last year of 3lb's higher. Goes well fresh, handles any ground, always seems to run well in the month of May. Only negative is he is now 9yo.
 
swedishchef said:
York 2.25 Mr Lupton 21.0 on the machine. 2 runs - 2 wins at this York, May meeting. Won this race last year of 3lb's higher. Goes well fresh, handles any ground, always seems to run well in the month of May. Only negative is he is now 9yo.
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Yes. ML will be my main bet in the race but I couldn't put him on the thread because 16s was the best price I could see. There's another I plan to back too but it doesn't qualify either.
 
Punchbowl Flyer 2.25 Generally 28-1 and around 44 BF

Maruco has already nailed some of the reasoning on the other thread, but I think there's a bit more to say. With the doubts ( to come in a minute), personally I don't think this is big enough yet. 33-1 minimum, maybe 50 - 60 or more on the Exchange might be enough to cover it for me.

So, in addition to Maruco's pointers (op, Buick, able to go fresh, mark)...........(for anyone interested, now you know why I tried to resurrect the wind op thread and why the specific questions were posed :-)

I thought PF looked somewhat like a (fast) tank on a few occasions last year. Out front rank and just keeps going, doesn't cave.
If you look at the Wokingham, and you subscribe to the idea he was on the wrong side of the track (the evidence seems pretty clear), there's an argument he could have ended up only a length or two off Rohaan. Which, in the context of this race, would put him well into the equation.


The worries?

The op. Why was it done? (we have to assume because something was noted in the few runs at the end of last season). Are we too early here?
The ground. And that's a big one. All the evidence suggests he'll be better on soft, but could another year (and maybe the op) make that less of a requirement.
And the first run. Although evidence suggests he can go well fresh, he was entered up in a sprint (I can't remember exactly which one) two or three weeks ago. Got pulled on the day if I remember rightly, I assumed on the day it was on account of the ground.

There are two ways to look at that last point. They pulled out to save him for this knowing it wouldn't be a problem, or they wanted that race to go spot on for this but decided not to take the risk on the ground. (there are, of course, other interpretations that might be valid)

Got to say, (if ground is really the key factor) I do hope he doesn't go well enough to wreck the prices in one or two alternative targets over the next couple of months (provided we do actually get any rain, of course)
 
I'm afraid I've penalised Punchbowl Flyer. He figures near the top of my ratings and I kept going back to the booking of Buick as a positive. I hadn't picked up on the wind op. I was swithering until I saw Maruco put it up and followed him in.

Full disclosure, I'm mob-handed in this race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York 3.35 - Ching Shih 20/1 - this is more down to gut instinct than anything in the filly's racing career. She holds all the big entries so is clearly well enough thought of and her dam won this race first time up without a rating before going off at 9/1 in Taghrooda's Oaks. Crowley became the dam's regular pilot after that so it's interesting that he now rides the daughter for the same owner. The dam, Madame Chiang, ended up with an OR of 113 after winning the Champion F & M race at Ascot that season, ridden by Crowley.
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I've gone in again at 40s on this one.
 
Worcester 2.15 Powder Trick 33/1 - trainers bumper record underestimated with 4 wins and 2 placed from 25 runs. This Is his local course.
 
swedishchef said:
Worcester 2.15 Powder Trick 33/1 - trainers bumper record underestimated with 4 wins and 2 placed from 25 runs. This Is his local course.
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That's a great spot. The issue here may be:

9 out of the 10 are trained by trainers that could easily introduce a listed bumper winner (though I don't think any will be doing so here)

Amy Murphy's is highly thought of.
TD seems to rate his on a rough par, with both going well at home
Pipe also says his has been moving well
Henderson no info, but could be anything
Reading between the lines on O'Briens, you have to think it will run similar to the one the other night and not have the toe
Even Michael Scudamore's could figure

An extra positive.... Danny Burton has been on for 3 bumper wins. I'm in! And the bigger it goes, the better. If it doesn't do the business this time, will be worth remembering.
 
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Final dart at the York 2.25 - Premier Power 50/1, 6 places - this one is jt-3rd on my figures and a cursory check the other night on the trainer-jockey combo put me off but I've only just noticed this is its first run for a new trainer (Easterby) and it wears a tongue-tie for the first time. The jockey has a fair record for the owners. 50s is too big if it's there to run its race. (500s too short if it's not...)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York 1.50 - On To Victory 20/1 - top on my figures and I like the booking of Crowley for it. It won the 2020 November Handicap off 1lb lower (100 here) and franked the form on his reappearance run last season when splitting Hukum (114) and Morando (104) and the King stable is in good form this spring on the Flat. The horse has had a wee break since last seen over hurdles and if it's freshened him up he can outrun his odds and on his best form could win. Not my main bet in the race, though.
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Lost a lot of ground at the start and ultimately did well to run on into fifth. I just hope that slow start wasn't deliberate.

Would never have beaten the winner, or probably the second for that matter.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lost a lot of ground at the start and ultimately did well to run on into fifth. I just hope that slow start wasn't deliberate.

Would never have beaten the winner, or probably the second for that matter.
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...and doesn't look like any soft ground evident, at least not on my small screen. Another day may yet come, hopefully that semi-promising run won't have ruined prices further on.
 
Outsider said:
York wednesday 6f sprint hcap

SUMMERGHAND 20/1 hcapper has given this a chance off 103.
Ran in the stakes race clipper logistics on the same day last year and finished 4th.
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Well it managed 6th.took 25s last night .but I think a/p it was only 4p.
Tudhope didnt give it everything,can still win a big one off 103.
 
Hamilton 7.20 - Sir Chauvelin 28/1 - I was looking at 33/1 last night but held off until this morning since it had drifted from half those odds. That price had been cut to 25s this morning but I got 28/1 boosted to 33s (+ BOG). The old fella is chucked in on his old form, has been running well this season [on the AW] and Goldie has the best recent record in this race. Sir Chauvelin might be a bit of an old dog but there's maybe life in the old dog yet.
 
York 3.00 - Bollin Joan 28/1, 4 pl - joint-second top on my ratings on a generous interpretation of her seasonal debut so, for me, shouldn't be anywhere near this price.
 
My eye was drawn to SC too. I'd be worried that - as a 10YO - he can't mix it with a young November HC winner any more, but SC proved he still has it during the winter. At the prices overall I'm in for fun too.

I'm banking on Goldie having a good night, with both Bobby Shaftoe and Summer Heights looking up to springing minor surprises in the last 2 sprints. Neither really qualify (at this point) for this thread (at 20 and 18WH only, 16 generally). Summer in particular I expect to pick up one of these and seems to have run some of her better races (on limited evidence) fresh (has a couple of months break for this one). Just the types that Goldie will bang in at 40-1 unexpectedly one day if today isn't the day.


PS just noticed Dark Jedi is out of the 7.20, which for me just increases the possibilities for SC.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Hamilton 7.20 - Sir Chauvelin 28/1 - I was looking at 33/1 last night but held off until this morning since it had drifted from half those odds. That price had been cut to 25s this morning but I got 28/1 boosted to 33s (+ BOG). The old fella is chucked in on his old form, has been running well this season [on the AW] and Goldie has the best recent record in this race. Sir Chauvelin might be a bit of an old dog but there's maybe life in the old dog yet.
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I've been unable to resist a little sniff at Faylaq at 100/1 in this race. Market weakness is screaming sad, mad, bad, but I'd be projectile-vomiting if it won and I wasn't on.

It went up to 107 at the end of 2019 and was running to levels around its OR of 105 earlier last season.

It was one of the casualties of the Shadwell streamlining operation and its falling mark points to failing ability but he's now well enough handicapped to pick up a rise in the weights to try and make the cut for something like the Magnet Cup or another decent summer prize over further. A mark of 93 might not get into such a race.

The market suggests it isn't expected to run well but maybe first time up after a winter off might be the time to catch it.
 
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