The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Haydock 2.20 - Kelly's Dino 25/1, 4pl - hasn't run for two years so the risks are obvious but he is very well handicapped on his best form. I'm trying to get into the trainer's head with this one. The stable is in incredible form so now might be the time to strike and I think sometimes first time up after an absence is the time to catch this type. The horse was on an upward curve five runs (but three years) ago and two seasons ago on his seasonal debut he was a close runner-up in a decent race at Deauville before being off for a while and disappointing on his reappearance. He's been off since then and has obviously had his problems so if they think they've got him back in some sort of form maybe now is the time to take advantage before the stable form wears off, assuming it will at some point. At the price and 5lbs lower than for that win five runs ago, it's a risk I'm happy to take with the extra place. Sky are offering the fifth place to 20/1.
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Out to 40s in a place now but I'm not especially worried; I have the BOG anyway. Sky are now going 33/1 with the five places so I've taken that too.
 
Same race -I've now added Reshoun at 50/1 (4pl) and 40/1 (5pl). I have it top rated on last season's form and, after two runs, it might be ready to hit form. It's a course winner and, for me, nobody rides Haydock better than Kingscote.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race -I've now added Reshoun at 50/1 (4pl) and 40/1 (5pl). I have it top rated on last season's form and, after two runs, it might be ready to hit form. It's a course winner and, for me, nobody rides Haydock better than Kingscote.
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Ran on for fifth but not sure if I'll get paid with the late NR.
 
Is it madness taking on two last time out Irish winners in a 2 mile Kelso novice?

Perhaps.

But My Macho Man 2.12 Kelso might show there is a way to do it.

The bigger prices have gone, unfortunately. 33 with WH this morning and 40 BF sportsbook. It was hard to tell at that point which way it was going, but the current 20s B365 is still just about in range of being acceptable (28 on the exchange as I type). I can't call which way it will go from here and probably depends heavily on the confidence behind either of the top two.

Barnes targets this race. Well, I say targets. Maybe it's just a good, local option and well placed in the calendar for his (hopefully) better novices, the types that may be up to running in summer 2m Class 3 handicaps.

MMM has had a fair few races, but still only 5. Could be he's yet to peak. Ran 3rd only 2 lengths off the winner in roughly the corresponding race to this last year.
2 miles on good should be optimal.
Stable had a nice C3 chase winner yesterday
Barnes delivered the 66-1 winner of the corresponding race in 2018

Nathan Moscrop riding is a surprise. Not normally a stable jockey. But he has been riding a number of winners recently.

I'd wait and see if 33 or higher is available in the lead-up, and then hope he can get round with zero mistakes. If he can, there are bits of form that suggest he could beat the top two.
 
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Went the expected way, though MMM ran OK and even looked like he might force more of a race of it for a few of seconds 2 out to the last. Slight mistake and bunny hop at the last possibly cost him second, but it looked like the winner had a lot more anyway.
 
Epsom 3.45 - Spirit Dancer 20/1, 5 places - Top rated on my figures and with the overall profile of an improver so I can't let it go unbacked. Won't be my only bet in the race but it will be my main one.
 
Epsom 2.35 - Arthur's Realm 33/1, 5places - sits joint bottom of my ratings table but I reckon if you strip out his last run he'd be half this price. On his previous run he'd be a decent improver who won with plenty to spare. I'm not so sure about the switch back to turf but he was improving anyway on this surface before that. He might be a bit of a nutter as well but there's plenty of compensation in the price, although his is weak in the betting. Still, nothing ventured etc. He's 40s to 4 places with Betfred. I've split my stake across the two terms.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Epsom 3.45 - Spirit Dancer 20/1, 5 places - Top rated on my figures and with the overall profile of an improver so I can't let it go unbacked. Won't be my only bet in the race but it will be my main one.
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Looked promising for a wee while but it may well have needed this seasonal debut given how its progress flattened out.

I'm kicking myself black and blue for not backing Royal Champion. One of the things I do in these targeted handicaps is check trainers' records in them. I forgot to do it - for any race so far today - and it turns out Varian has won it three times from just four runners in the last ten years. Normally that would have had me lumping on.

A very spikey reminder not to neglect this approach for the rest of the meeting and ahead of Ascot.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looked promising for a wee while but it may well have needed this seasonal debut given how its progress flattened out.
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Yep, a furlong and a half out or so out I thought he was coming to do the business and the place side of it definitely looked good. The ground worried me, I suspect it wasn't soft enough. But Fahey would have pulled out if the ground had been too wrong. Comment before the race suggested they had Spirit straight, which makes me think maybe they got there and figured it was just on the side of OK and go for it.
 
Now for a wild one...

Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
 
Epsom 3.45 - Mulzim 50/1, 6 places - still a maiden on turf but just over a year ago was a half-length second off 94 to job horse Copper Knight at York and gets in here off 86, the same as his AW mark which is only 3lbs higher than when a clear-cut winner the time before last. I don't think he is as unreliable as his form suggests. Early last season he had a run of four wins from five races going up from 76 to 97 on ORs. Most of his runs since then have probably been geared towards getting him back down to a winning mark and he's on one now. Obviously not my main bet in the race but he's clear top rated on my figures on the best of his form in the last 15 months.
 
Musselburgh 3.21 - Danzeno 33/1, 4 places - Danzeno is getting on but has won a few times first time up for the season and the jockey is building up a nice reputation for himself among northern trainers, while the trainer himself has had three winners of this from six runners in the last ten years. I took 16/1 yesterday and intended to leave it at that but have gone in again at more than double the price. Obviously the market weakness is a concern but it's a risk-v-reward situation I'm happy to get involved in to small stakes.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Musselburgh 3.21 - Danzeno 33/1, 4 places - Danzeno is getting on but has won a few times first time up for the season and the jockey is building up a nice reputation for himself among northern trainers, while the trainer himself has had three winners of this from six runners in the last ten years. I took 16/1 yesterday and intended to leave it at that but have gone in again at more than double the price. Obviously the market weakness is a concern but it's a risk-v-reward situation I'm happy to get involved in to small stakes.
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Big draw bias there. Worth noting for the next race….
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Musselburgh 3.21 - Danzeno 33/1, 4 places - Danzeno is getting on but has won a few times first time up for the season and the jockey is building up a nice reputation for himself among northern trainers, while the trainer himself has had three winners of this from six runners in the last ten years. I took 16/1 yesterday and intended to leave it at that but have gone in again at more than double the price. Obviously the market weakness is a concern but it's a risk-v-reward situation I'm happy to get involved in to small stakes.
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Big draw bias there. Worth noting for the next race….
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Epsom 3.45 - Mulzim 50/1, 6 places - still a maiden on turf but just over a year ago was a half-length second off 94 to job horse Copper Knight at York and gets in here off 86, the same as his AW mark which is only 3lbs higher than when a clear-cut winner the time before last. I don't think he is as unreliable as his form suggests. Early last season he had a run of four wins from five races going up from 76 to 97 on ORs. Most of his runs since then have probably been geared towards getting him back down to a winning mark and he's on one now. Obviously not my main bet in the race but he's clear top rated on my figures on the best of his form in the last 15 months.
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Got a mention :lol:
 
I'll get this in quick, no time to write up right now ...Roma Bangkok 3.30 Perth Sunday 25-1 Bet3 Prices just gone up (it's 16s with Hills). Could go either way but 25s is fair enough as a start point.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Now for a wild one...

Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
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:rolleyes::whistle::cool:
 
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