The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Saturday 5.35 - Splendent 20/1, 6 places - Connections won this with their only previous runner and seasonal debutant Highland Chief (20/1) so I'm guessing this one has improved enough through the winter to fancy their barra here. Ben Curtis is an interesting booking.
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Just realised this is one of three reserves at the bottom of the weights so might not get in.

How about the owners offering other owners a couple weeks all-inclusive in the Seychelles if they take their entries out?

:ninja::ninja::cool:
 
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For a few seconds, I thought Ropey was going to do me a favour. Not to be, and joins a long list of 'failed Royal Ascot handicap winner' (semi-educated) guesses.

So, I will have to rely on some 'proper' racing :-)

8.40 FFos Wise Glory 28 B3 (on the way out, in general, through the day)


I had Wisey down as a potential (weakish) class 3 flat handicap winner at some point, and certainly a class 4. I believe the stable think so, too. So it's interesting they try hurdles.

Grace Harris can pull one out of the bag when they go hurdling. So, WG does already have some experience with PN in the past, but hasn't been over hurdles for some time (although should be fit enough from this season's flat runs). Couldn't do anything in those early runs but ran OK in one novice, but has had the op since then. Maybe has grown up a bit too.

Possibly might need it softer (and looking at the first race, it looks like proper good to me)

The others look beatable.

28-1 in a 7 runner race is reasonable for small stakes.


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I suspect John Flint will get something out of Blaze a Trail at some point. Evidence suggests that may be in a half-mile further race at class 5. But if BAT went off like a bat, who knows. Maybe he could stay there if the others underperform.

I think the rev FC is currently at an average of about 900-1 on B3 at the moment for anyone that has 50p to spare!!
 
chaumi said:
For a few seconds, I thought Ropey was going to do me a favour. Not to be, and joins a long list of 'failed Royal Ascot handicap winner' (semi-educated) guesses.

Sorry for you but glad it didnt win as I didnt back it today.id finally given up on it.
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Looking at the race, it looks to me like they just hunted WG round for the experience. Beaten far enough that over 20-1 is still possible next time, so all good there. They may go back on the flat, and it always looked to me as if soft ground would be probably be desirable. Similar with Blaze a Trail, a class 5 over two and a half might be the right time (with enough runners, 66-1 is a possibility).
 
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Here we go again, heading into round 4 with a cauliflower ear, fat lip, black eyes and bloody nose facing a pumped up Muhammed Ali...

2.30 - She's Hot 40/1 - the Cole horses have been unlucky so far but have been outrunning their odds, in my opinion. I was told years ago they don't send many here and only do so when they really like them so I'm taking that on trust.

For the same reasons...

Saturday, 2.30 - Sunningdale 80/1, 4 places (and 100/1 3 places)

And the each-way doubles, cos I'm a greeedy bastert.
 
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Ascot 2.30 Ivory Madonna 33/1. I have 140.0 win and 7.0, 5 places. Selections sire, dam and dams sire all ran well in 2yo Royal Ascot races. Trainer in form. I did fancy the Gosden runner that beat the selection and have had a saver on her but I believe she will need soft in the going to be seen at her best?
 
5.00 - Wilderness Girl 40/1, 6 places - debuts for the season and, since the trainer said he kept Dark Shift off the track to preserve his mark for the Hunt Cup (there's a potential spoonerism...), I'm thinking he must have targeted this a long way out and he deploys Harry Davies to reduce the mark even further. She also has a decent draw.
 
6.10 - Lil Guff 22/1, 7 places - I put this on the strong form thread and it won last time. I wasn't impressed at the time but the form might actually be better than I thought. I was concerned that she was being caught late but that was over 6f and she drops back to five here for the first time. The trip, track and draw might all play to her strengths. I have to stick with her.

I've also taken these last three selections in an ew three-cross. Probably chucking good money after bad but if they each sneak into the last paying place the treble alone will pay better than 260/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
6.10 - Lil Guff 22/1, 7 places - I put this on the strong form thread and it won last time. I wasn't impressed at the time but the form might actually be better than I thought. I was concerned that she was being caught late but that was over 6f and she drops back to five here for the first time. The trip, track and draw might all play to her strengths. I have to stick with her.

I've also taken these last three selections in an ew three-cross. Probably chucking good money after bad but if they each sneak into the last paying place the treble alone will pay better than 260/1.
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Raydoun won a few days back btw. I missed it. That FC with Golden Duke would have looked enticing.
 
I'd no idea, chaumi. I didn't get an alert so the tracker must have expired. A bit like my ability to find a winner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've added Ajero 25/1, boosted to 28s, 5 places and BOG. Could be totally unexposed on the Flat and has hit a nice curve over hurdles.
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From Mr Bailey.............

This was always the plan for Ajero but I have to say it was one made in the sky. Three runs to qualify but hard to believe we have made it in. It's also very hard to know whether he is well handicapped or not but he is ready to run well. It would be a thrill to be placed and we will be doing our best to do so. On form he must have a great chance..
 
Ascot 5.00 No Nay Nicki 40/1 - Trainer form was poor on selections last run. Ignore that run and the 2 1/4L she was btn by Maljoom giving that horse 2lb, she may be well hcpped?
 
swedishchef said:
Ascot 5.00 No Nay Nicki 40/1 - Trainer form was poor on selections last run. Ignore that run and the 2 1/4L she was btn by Maljoom giving that horse 2lb, she may be well hcpped?
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It could well turn out that yesterday's exploits by the Fahey yard were a pointer to this. He seems fairly bullish in comments published yesterday (I went looking after the Ridler won but failed to pick up on the other runners yesterday)...but I imagine a fair number of the 28 or so others are too!!

Good luck, Swedish
 
Wokingham - Ventura Tormenta 40/1, 7 places - one question just keeps nagging me: why? Why are they running it in this mega-competitive event on its first run for two years, the stable's only runner in the race when they tend to be mob-handed in these races. I think they have a better record in the Stewards' Cup and this might be a prep for that. VT was raised to 107 for winning the G1 Papin as a 2yo and probably wasn't over that when last in the G2 Phoenix Stakes. He came back a bit in the 5f Flying Childers and finished off eased down over seven furlongs. It's all supposin', but supposin' he had come out as a three-year-old and progressed 7lbs? (The weight for age scale says 3yos should improve 16lbs from March to October.) He probably wouldn't be good enough for the G1s and G2s, notwithstanding the fact that he is already a G1 winner, but they've smuggled him in here off 100. He has winning form on Good-Firm and a middle draw which can help tow him into the race... assuming this is a serious target. I can't resist it.
 
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swedishchef said:
Ascot 2.30 Ivory Madonna 33/1. I have 140.0 win and 7.0, 5 places. Selections sire, dam and dams sire all ran well in 2yo Royal Ascot races. Trainer in form. I did fancy the Gosden runner that beat the selection and have had a saver on her but I believe she will need soft in the going to be seen at her best?
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Great shout, ran very well gor third having missed the break, returned 66/1 as well which was a nice bonus.

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Desert Orchid said:
Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.
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Desert Orchid said:
I've added Cadamosto 50/1 (boosted to 60s) for this race. It's O'Brien's only runner and surely won't be allowed to go off anywhere near that kind of price, assuming it turns up on the day. (Hard to imagine Coolmore letting a race of this nature go without a representative in it.) The risks are obvious.
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I think that's a first for me. Doesn't recoup much in the way of overall losses but better than a slap in the face with a wet fish.
 
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