The 2022 Longshot Thread

Copied from the main Ascot thread:

I'm loath to oppose Euro in the Wolferton but I've taken 25/1 Aristia. Looked much improved last time although the performance wasn't backed up by a fast time. However, her previous best was off a good time so I'm hopeful.
 
Desert Orchid said:
SJP - Bayside Boy 50/1 - this is his only entry for the meeting and he's also in the Eclipse and Sussex Stakes so he's clearly still held in high regard. He wasn't beaten at all far in the Dewhurst and Futurity, denied a clear run both and had Berkshire Shadow, which ran well in the Guineas, well behind him at Newmarket. A poor reappearance in the French Guineas requires forgiving but that was a Longchamp soft-ground race and I can always forgive a modest reappearance. The price is probably an over-reaction to that, for which he was only 11/1 and for which the service of Peslier had been secured.
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Gone in again at 66/1 to 4 places. Really silly price, I reckon. It's the rank outsider and I can see it beating at least half this field.
 
Copper Horse Stks 6.10 - Island Brave 50/1, 5 places - joint second-top on my ratings so I can't let it go unbacked at that price. Looks like I just missed out on 66s.

Also, Red Verdon 33/1 - top on my figures so has to be overpriced at those odds.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Copper Horse Stks 6.10 - Island Brave 50/1, 5 places - joint second-top on my ratings so I can't let it go unbacked at that price. Looks like I just missed out on 66s.

Also, Red Verdon 33/1 - top on my figures so has to be overpriced at those odds.
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I agree with both.track and trip is good for Island brave.
 
Sandringham. 1m fillies GATECRASHER GIRL 20/1
Duke of Edinburgh FORZA ORTA 20/1
Queen mary CARMELA 20/1
Royal hunt cup INTELLOGENT 25/1
Buckingham palace hcap TACTICAL 25/1 coral

Wokingham NOMADIC EMPIRE 40/1
I SUMMERGHAND 25/1
MASTER MATT 40/1

St James palace CHECKANDCHALLENGE 50/1
 
Yes, I love these festival meetings because there's always a stack of overpriced / underestimated contenders, certainly for the places and the bookie offers of extra places and BOGs help a lot.
 
Hunt Cup - What's The Story 40/1, Desert Peace 20/1, both 7 places

It's a while ago now but What's The Story won the £100k+ Clipper Logistics (1m) at York in August 2019 off 103, for which he went up to 108. His mark has pretty much snookered him since but he's looked to retain plenty of ability this season with promising runs in the Lincoln (denied a clear run in trying to come from the back) and at York in the Hambleton. He's off 97 now. De Sousa is an interesting booking.

Desert Peace is the only Godolphin runner and they have a tremenduous record in these mega-handicaps. Sometimes they're punted off the board, sometimes they go ignored but any market move will be interesting. Look at the rabbit they pulled out of the hat last year with Real World.

The draw is a concern as they're both drawn low and I'd prefer high but the better the ground the less likely it is to matter and there has to be a chance selective watering will attempt to remove the near-side advantage there's been lately.
 
How about a 120/1 shot, folks?

Hunt Cup - Legend of Dubai 10/1 x Kensington Palace - Mobadra 10/1 for the double.

You can get better place terms if you're prepared to take slightly shorter odds, which I have done.

The latter race is stealing money for somebody with an ordinary filly or mare but it looks like Mobadra has been kept back for it all season, given that she's very lightly raced. She improved 10lbs between her last two races so I'm placing my trust in the trainer to have her ready for this. The wide-ish draw isn't ideal but I don't suppose you can have everything...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tuesday, Ascot 5.00 - Themaxwecan 40/1 (boosted to almost 45/1) - Has been rated around 103 for chunks of the last two seasons and gets in here off 97, one pound higher than his last winning mark. First-time cheekpieces coincided with a return to form in his previous race to that and he's now blinkered for the first time.
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In for a penny... it's out to 66/1 which I've taken, boosted to about 75/1 but only five places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copper Horse Stks 6.10 - Island Brave 50/1, 5 places - joint second-top on my ratings so I can't let it go unbacked at that price. Looks like I just missed out on 66s.

Also, Red Verdon 33/1 - top on my figures so has to be overpriced at those odds.
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Island Brave blue in places but RV out to 66s so I've gone in again at that price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hunt Cup - What's The Story 40/1, Desert Peace 20/1, both 7 places

It's a while ago now but What's The Story won the £100k+ Clipper Logistics (1m) at York in August 2019 off 103, for which he went up to 108. His mark has pretty much snookered him since but he's looked to retain plenty of ability this season with promising runs in the Lincoln (denied a clear run in trying to come from the back) and at York in the Hambleton. He's off 97 now. De Sousa is an interesting booking.

Desert Peace is the only Godolphin runner and they have a tremenduous record in these mega-handicaps. Sometimes they're punted off the board, sometimes they go ignored but any market move will be interesting. Look at the rabbit they pulled out of the hat last year with Real World.

The draw is a concern as they're both drawn low and I'd prefer high but the better the ground the less likely it is to matter and there has to be a chance selective watering will attempt to remove the near-side advantage there's been lately.
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I put what's the story up last time and it was disappointing but I can see where you're coming from and Desert Piece is interesting just because I thought its stablemate One Ruler would win it.and they took him out.
 
I've done 2 more in the hunt cup which might turn into 3.

BOPEDRO 25/1 did me a good turn when winning the irish Cambridgeshire at 33/1
Jamie Spencer BLESS HIM 33/1 this should be an exciting time,if you know what I mean.
Jamie riding a hold up horse and trying to weave it's way through.will he or wont he?
And I might do WHATS THE STORY as I put it up last time.
 
Cheers, Outsider, I was wondering what other entries they might have had in the race. I presume they had several.

Anyroads, I've had another stab: Etonian 40/1 (boosted to 45/1), 6 places, BOG - won the G3 Solario as a juvenile and was trained for a pop at the Derby, taking on Alenquer and Yibir at Sandown but withdrawn from the Lingfield trial and not seen again. This looks much more like his trip on breeding (by Olympic Glory) and two quiet runs this spring have got his mark down 9lbs. 27 might be a good draw and at least it's on the opposite side from the others I've backed :lol:
 
I've always thought that high numbers were best and a lot of the ones I like are drawn low but at least Jamie BLESS HIM is drawn high.

Because of the draw BLESS HIM is my main bet now.
I can imagine my nerves as I will be screaming at the tv as he tries to weave through.lol.
 
Stratford 1.35 Scrutinise 25/1 - Yet to run a bad race at this course in 5 attempts. 5th over C/D & Going last October btn 15L, the 4 in front of him all went on to win. He was on an OR/90 runs off OR/74 today.
 
Thursday, KGV Hcap - Flying Dolphin 20/1, 6 places - Murtagh had a devastating handicap winner last year when Create Belief blew the Sandringham apart off 97 before going on to win a G3 (rated 110) so he isn't averse to getting them here totally under the radar. The chances are this is a decent one. It's more trainer study than form study but I want it onside anyway!

I've also taken 25/1 (boosted to 28s), 5 places, BOG about Vina Sena who was a serious eyecatcher last time after being allowed to become detached in rear in the first half of the race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, Outsider, I was wondering what other entries they might have had in the race. I presume they had several.

Anyroads, I've had another stab: Etonian 40/1 (boosted to 45/1), 6 places, BOG - won the G3 Solario as a juvenile and was trained for a pop at the Derby, taking on Alenquer and Yibir at Sandown but withdrawn from the Lingfield trial and not seen again. This looks much more like his trip on breeding (by Olympic Glory) and two quiet runs this spring have got his mark down 9lbs. 27 might be a good draw and at least it's on the opposite side from the others I've backed :lol:
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Was just coming on to put him up myself. I’ve just taken the 40/1 7 Places and noted he’s blue elsewhere.

Going and draw (probably) in his favour and there’s back form to suggest he’s capable off that mark. Reunited with Dobbs being no bad thing.
 
Duke of Cambridge - Kennella 40/1

From my analysis of the race (written on Monday):

I really don’t like these F&M races. The top three in my table have one win between them in their last 15 races collectively. Novemba (8/1) will probably find it a bit fast, as might Sibila Spain (8/1), and I’m not prepared to take 5/2 about Mother Earth or Saffron Beach. I reckon this is a race best sat out but on the ratings Kennella (25/1) probably shouldn’t be five times the price of Bashkirova (5/1) and if the dead eight run an each-way pop might be in order.

Bashkirova is now 7/2 tops and Kinnella has drifted. I'm glad I waited whether I get a return or not.
 
Hunt Cup - Tempus 40/1, 7 places - put up a career best first time up this year on the all-weather, second-top n my ratings on that run and could well have been targeting this since, being a CD winner so I'm not worried about the track and the middle draw give Hollie Doyle positional options.
 
Kensington Palace - Neptune Rock 28/1, 6 places - fourth-top on my figures and two of the three above her have double-digit draws (including my top-rated, Improvised). She's only a pound behind stablemate and 9/2 favourite Haziya and is the mount of the yard's main jockey.
 
Hunt Cup - it really is a needle in a haystack job, but I quite like Sinjaari 20/1 who I thought ran a good race at Newbury last time and he gets a hard mile with ease since he usually goes a bit longer.
 
barjon said:
Hunt Cup - it really is a needle in a haystack job, but I quite like Sinjaari 20/1 who I thought ran a good race at Newbury last time and he gets a hard mile with ease since he usually goes a bit longer.
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Sinjaari is a horse I like but I've taken the gamble of ignoring him here and assuming he's being aimed at the Magnet Cup.
 
Wokingham - Rohaan 25/1 - ante-post terms so only four places just now but the wonderful Ryan Moore has been booked and the horse is 3lbs lower than when winning the race and 5lbs better in with the current 8/1f Fresh. I'm not worried about the going as he's got good winning form on fast ground. I might go in again by Saturday depending on the final decs, draw, prices and place terms.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Haydock 2.20 - Kelly's Dino 25/1, 4pl - hasn't run for two years so the risks are obvious but he is very well handicapped on his best form. I'm trying to get into the trainer's head with this one. The stable is in incredible form so now might be the time to strike and I think sometimes first time up after an absence is the time to catch this type. The horse was on an upward curve five runs (but three years) ago and two seasons ago on his seasonal debut he was a close runner-up in a decent race at Deauville before being off for a while and disappointing on his reappearance. He's been off since then and has obviously had his problems so if they think they've got him back in some sort of form maybe now is the time to take advantage before the stable form wears off, assuming it will at some point. At the price and 5lbs lower than for that win five runs ago, it's a risk I'm happy to take with the extra place. Sky are offering the fifth place to 20/1.
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Reappears in the Chookie Embra on Friday, which might explain that modest run, for which he's been dropped another 3lbs to 97. The stable is in flying form and he won a decent Class 2 off 105 in July 2019. If he's here I presume he's in good form at home. I've gone in again at 66/1. If he lengthens or place terms improve by Friday I might go in again.
 
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