The 2022 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Becher Chase - Didero Vallis 25/1 - did last season's thread no harm when third at the festival at 66/1 and is back on the same mark. It's VW's only entry at this stage but I wasn't keeping track of previous stages so don't know if this is the last one remaining or the sole entry. Bottom line: it's handicapped to run well. The fences are an unknown but that will be the case for many.
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Looks a cracker on paper doesnt it.wouldnt surprise me if CLOTH CAP returned to form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Becher Chase - Didero Vallis 25/1 - did last season's thread no harm when third at the festival at 66/1 and is back on the same mark. It's VW's only entry at this stage but I wasn't keeping track of previous stages so don't know if this is the last one remaining or the sole entry. Bottom line: it's handicapped to run well. The fences are an unknown but that will be the case for many.
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I'm following you on this one as I have backed him before and my main fancy Nowwhereorwhen is now a N/R.

Good luck and good luck to other forum members with their picks including Chaumi with Fortescue.
 
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3.15 Aintree. This will be a tough race to make all, and multiple dangers on paper (not least the fav, ofc)...but I'm not seeing why Romeo Brown is 40-1.

Romeo is a tough front-runner (normally), up to this level, Thomas Wilmott will know what to do, and this will most likely be a pre-Christmas target race (although he'll need to be spot-on perfect).

Realistically, he's going to get done from the second last or maybe the last, but it will be a surprise not to get a fun run out of this...and there's a chance he's just tough enough to fight back if whoever jumps the last in front can't sustain it.
 
A couple more for me today:

Aintree 2.05 - De Rasher Counter 22/1 - I still have a lot of faith both in this horse and in the trainer.

Sandown 3.30 - One More Fleurie 45/1, 4 places (B365) - more letters than numbers in its recent form but before that was a novice on a curve and the trainer is more than up to plotting them.
 
Marb said:
Chepstow

1.37 Grand Mogul was once with Gordon Elliott then moved to Nicky Henderson, (which I'd view as an indicator that he was thought of as a decent prospect).

He won his first start over hurdles in a maiden hurdle here at Chepstow and not long after when starting chasing won a class three novice chase by about 10 lengths.

He put in two poor efforts after that and left Nicky Hendersons yard on to a lesser known trainer called Gail Haywood who I must confess I have never heard of.

However, this lightly raced chaser is not best judged on his worst two starts before leaving Nicky Henserson's yard, and his course form at Chepstow is a positive. He's won twice first time out aswell, and he looks like a longshot I want to back tomorrow.

I don't think the 4lbs he is out of the handicap is as bad as it might seem, and fingers crossed he can out run these odds of 50/1 in a big way.

I'll hazard a guess if he were with a more well known trainer he'd be half his current odds. I reckon he falls into the 'could be anything' catagory and I am happy to have a dabble each way.
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Got a lot of time for the highly limited number of runners that Gail sends out, though admittedly, that's normally in Class 4/5 handicaps and looking for a 33-1 + winner (which has happened, enough that you don't want to ever be excluding them).

However, Gail did send out Midnight Sapphire to run 2nd in a valuable Kempton Class 2 a few years back, so not totally impossible she could do it again.

Recent interviews suggest GM has been going well at home, and they've been mixing up routines to settle him and rekindle the interest. I suspect they'll be more than happy with a good run, and GM enjoys himself.

It would be a massive result for the yard if he goes well, for sure. Would be great to see.

For that reason (and, ofc, the health of Marb's wallet) fingers crossed he goes well.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 3.30 - One More Fleurie 45/1, 4 places (B365) - more letters than numbers in its recent form but before that was a novice on a curve and the trainer is more than up to plotting them.
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Ian Williams "Since winning impressively at Ayr in A[ril of last year, One More Fleurie has struggled to live up to his higher mark and was most disappointing on his recent return to action. This race gives him a chance to be competitive and with the horses showing signs of returning to form, hopefully that will go for him too."
 
chaumi said:
Got a lot of time for the highly limited number of runners that Gail sends out, though admittedly, that's normally in Class 4/5 handicaps and looking for a 33-1 + winner (which has happened, enough that you don't want to ever be excluding them).

However, Gail did send out Midnight Sapphire to run 2nd in a valuable Kempton Class 2 a few years back, so not totally impossible she could do it again.

Recent interviews suggest GM has been going well at home, and they've been mixing up routines to settle him and rekindle the interest. I suspect they'll be more than happy with a good run, and GM enjoys himself.

It would be a massive result for the yard if he goes well, for sure. Would be great to see.

For that reason (and, ofc, the health of Marb's wallet) fingers crossed he goes well.
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Cheers Chaum.

Only what I deem a sporting bet as always, or nearly always.

It's the health of my credibility that is more important!

Joking aside. I have re-read my post from last night just to check I was in a stable frame of mind when posting, and I still agree with every word of it today.

Hopefuly he can run a big race and the race may fall apart a bit.
 
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chaumi said:
3.15 Aintree. This will be a tough race to make all, and multiple dangers on paper (not least the fav, ofc)...but I'm not seeing why Romeo Brown is 40-1.

Romeo is a tough front-runner (normally), up to this level, Thomas Wilmott will know what to do, and this will most likely be a pre-Christmas target race (although he'll need to be spot-on perfect).

Realistically, he's going to get done from the second last or maybe the last, but it will be a surprise not to get a fun run out of this...and there's a chance he's just tough enough to fight back if whoever jumps the last in front can't sustain it.
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I agree. 40s is far too big, certainly relative to where it sits in my ratings table. Followed you in.
 
I took 20/1 for the fvckin National after last year's race expecting him to be laid out for it again.

Fvckin greedy basterts going for pishy mid-season races...


:lol:
 
chaumi said:
3.15 Aintree. This will be a tough race to make all, and multiple dangers on paper (not least the fav, ofc)...but I'm not seeing why Romeo Brown is 40-1.

Romeo is a tough front-runner (normally), up to this level, Thomas Wilmott will know what to do, and this will most likely be a pre-Christmas target race (although he'll need to be spot-on perfect).

Realistically, he's going to get done from the second last or maybe the last, but it will be a surprise not to get a fun run out of this...and there's a chance he's just tough enough to fight back if whoever jumps the last in front can't sustain it.
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Nice one Chaumi well found.and fortescue.
 
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chaumi said:
3.15 Aintree. This will be a tough race to make all, and multiple dangers on paper (not least the fav, ofc)...but I'm not seeing why Romeo Brown is 40-1.

Romeo is a tough front-runner (normally), up to this level, Thomas Wilmott will know what to do, and this will most likely be a pre-Christmas target race (although he'll need to be spot-on perfect).

Realistically, he's going to get done from the second last or maybe the last, but it will be a surprise not to get a fun run out of this...and there's a chance he's just tough enough to fight back if whoever jumps the last in front can't sustain it.
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Fantastic shout couldn’t see it over 2.5 but well done


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Fantastic shout Chaum.

If anyone can top that on this thread in 2023 they deserve a medal.

A good day for the thread.
 
chaumi said:
3.15 Aintree. This will be a tough race to make all, and multiple dangers on paper (not least the fav, ofc)...but I'm not seeing why Romeo Brown is 40-1.

Romeo is a tough front-runner (normally), up to this level, Thomas Wilmott will know what to do, and this will most likely be a pre-Christmas target race (although he'll need to be spot-on perfect).

Realistically, he's going to get done from the second last or maybe the last, but it will be a surprise not to get a fun run out of this...and there's a chance he's just tough enough to fight back if whoever jumps the last in front can't sustain it.
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Thanks chaumi. I used to back Romeo Brown when he was with Phil Kirby and he’s improved dramatically since he switched stable. I have backed him since but think I would have ignored him today it it wasn’t for your post. My betting has gone to pieces recently so I needed a decent priced winner! I was hoping for a decent run from Ballyhome in that race but maybe he needs to be back at Market Rasen.
 
The great news (for me) is I had to wait for the Fortescue payout to back Romeo...and it took a long time to come through, which meant I was logging in to the 365 account in the rain on the dog walk about 5 mins before the race...at exactly the point he went 66 (after taking the BF 70 before leaving home just in case).

What tremendous fun that was. I suspect anyone else walking their dog at the local lake was wondering what that shout of 'commeoonnnnnnn' was. Must have been able to hear it 2 miles away.

I'm especially happy for anyone that backed it who was might have been short of a few pennies and needed one.
 
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