The 2022 Longshot Thread

BORN BY THE SEA 66/1 PLATE
Came up in the trends for this and in 25 races over hurdles and chases this is the first time it hasnt been ridden by,I assume,the trainers son so is basically 7lb wrong but Sean Flanagan rides tomorrow so a chance is taken.
 
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SILVER SHEEN missed the cut by 1 I think for the pertemps but runs in the m.pipe so i have to have a little bet at 66/1
 
Looked again at the Pertemps especially as Remastered has been taken out.

Ifthecapfits ran a much better race the last day when 5th in a big handicap hurdle at Sandown. He was staying on aswell.

If he is not well handicapped now off 137 I don't know what is.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday - Grand Annual - Global Citizen 50/1, 6 places - I've been banging on about this one since it ran so well behind Tommy's Oscar at Haydock over hurdles. I'm not convinced Cheltenham is its track but the signs that day was that the horse was back to something like its best, which is very good. I could have fancied him for the County off his hurdles mark so for him to get into a chase off a same ball park figure is all the more interesting. I haven't actually studies the race yet but this might end up being my main bet anyway. (That said, I will be on a few, as is my wont.)
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:D
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday - Grand Annual - Global Citizen 50/1, 6 places - I've been banging on about this one since it ran so well behind Tommy's Oscar at Haydock over hurdles. I'm not convinced Cheltenham is its track but the signs that day was that the horse was back to something like its best, which is very good. I could have fancied him for the County off his hurdles mark so for him to get into a chase off a same ball park figure is all the more interesting. I haven't actually studies the race yet but this might end up being my main bet anyway. (That said, I will be on a few, as is my wont.)
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What a good winner.wellvdone D. Very nice.
For pleasure backed into 7/1 and didnt jump well and frero banbou did well to get 3rd.
 
Marb said:
Good luck matey. I hope all Outsiders followers are on this now.

My fancy Hasankey should love this soft ground.

Hasankey should never be the price he is especially on soft ground but it's a very competative race so partly understandable.

I'd be delighted if he places.
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I took 50s on yours mate 5 places 6th

Nice one mate I've just seen they paid out 6 places.
 
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Well done DO. Savage call.

I'd be very surprised if the 20s about Adrimel in the Plate hold up tomorrow. 5/5 on heavy, 7/7 soft to heavy. Not dissimilar profile to Tea Clipper who ran a stormer on Tuesday for Lacey and Sheppard.

Really dug in to win last time when pressed the whole way giving a stone away to a decent enough sort.

UK are mopping up the handicap chases so far and I'd be very disappointed if he's out of the places. 365 going 7 places.
 
Bonjers said:
Well done DO. Savage call.

I'd be very surprised if the 20s about Adrimel in the Plate hold up tomorrow. 5/5 on heavy, 7/7 soft to heavy. Not dissimilar profile to Tea Clipper who ran a stormer on Tuesday for Lacey and Sheppard.

Really dug in to win last time when pressed the whole way giving a stone away to a decent enough sort.

UK are mopping up the handicap chases so far and I'd be very disappointed if he's out of the places. 365 going 7 places.
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Sorry, 365 6 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ryanair - Fanion D'Estruval 50/1 - I was tempted to accept 25/1 NRNB but my gut tells me they will run the horse (they did with Aso who ran very well) so I want to let this one ride to small stakes.

I find myself going pretty high with Saturday's form against Phoenix Way. It was a two-horse race on paper for me in advance and that's certainly how it worked out. (I can't believe it never occurred to me to back the forecast.)

I did a time-comparison elsewhere with the Clarence House (which, to me, really serves to emphasise what brilliant form that is) but this was a hot race in its own right and I reckon a 6lbs rise for the winner is very lenient although the official handicapper's mark is dictated by procedures. My figures aren't.

I reckon time will show that Fanion D'Estruval was facing an impossible task in trying to give the winner 19lbs, especially with the winner getting a more energy-efficient ride (which is no criticism of the runner-up's jockey).

Still just seven, there's every chance Fanion D'Estruval will improve another 5-7lbs by the festival and, on my figures, that would put him very much in the mix for the places and if anything should happen to prevent Allaho from showing his true form, who knows what might happen...
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I'm not convinced Allaho will like the ground tomorrow and I'm genuinely gobsmacked that there's still plenty of 40/1 on offer for Fanion. I've gone in again unusually heavily for a longshot although I do have some slight concern that he tends to be ridden from off the pace, which will be difficult to execute successfully if today's evidence is anything to go by. On my figures he should be second favourite but I haven't allowed Shan Blue a 20-length winning margin for Wetherby. I'm not convinced he would have kept going right to the line.
 
Elegant Escape at 50s has to be taken too. The claimer could be hopeless, I'd have little to no idea, but he's running off 140 here (before the 7lb claim) when 2 runs back he ran a valiant race behind Yala Enki on his Gold Cup who's still a good top 150s horse.
 
Bonjers said:
Elegant Escape at 50s has to be taken too. The claimer could be hopeless, I'd have little to no idea, but he's running off 140 here (before the 7lb claim) when 2 runs back he ran a valiant race behind Yala Enki on his Gold Cup who's still a good top 150s horse.
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Agreed. I think School Boy Hours is a good horse so a win on him and each way on Elegant Escape is the way I am playimg the race.
 
Outsider said:
I took 50s on yours mate 5 places 6th

Nice one mate I've just seen they paid out 6 places.
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Cheers Outsider yes Hasankey out ran his odds for sure.

Well done to Maurice with Global Citizen.
Regular readers of the forum will remember a few months ago that Maurice flagged him up, ,was it his run behind Tommy's Oscar?

He looked well handicapped on the maths.
That wind operation worked the magic.
Like DO I thought immediately after that run in the graded hurdle that he'd need to be watched in handcap hurdles - then he wins today over fences - must be a very versatile horse to be able to do that.

Other thoughts on the race. Frero Banbou has run well again. I still can't work out why Eclair D'ainay didn't run but his form with Frero Banbou earlier this season has proved to be decent. Frero is a hold up horse and that doesn't seem to be where you want to be in the Grand Annual. Horses on the pace seem to do best.

Eclair Dainay is a horse who likes to be up with the pace and maybe he is worth watching for next season, maybe a wind operation might bring out some more improvement in him too.
 
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Mares' Novices' Hurdle - Mighty Blue 25/1, 5 places - smart Flat performer (105) and ran well in this last year. I wouldn't be surprised if she's been put away all year for another pop since she should be a second-season novice and 10lbs better than then, in which case it will take a smart performer to beat her. The price is just too big, imo.
 
Pertemps Final - The Cob 40/1, 7 places - pure coincidence (or is it?) that this is the same trainer/jockey as Global Citizen, but this one was strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett in its novice season so should have gone on to be a 150-160 second season hurdler but it's in here off 134 following a difficult spell. The ground shouldn't be a worry and the light weight won't do it any harm.
 
Cheltenham 4.10

Having one last roll of the dice with the old boy Slate House 33-40/1

Will almost certainly go from the front in what will be difficult ground conditions. His jumping has improved ten fold in the last year, and back down in trip where he can make it a test from the front. Ive chanced a few quid on him. Hoping for a good show.
 
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The brother is on that one too, DJ, for similar reasons.

Desert Orchid said:
Pertemps Final - The Cob 40/1, 7 places - pure coincidence (or is it?) that this is the same trainer/jockey as Global Citizen, but this one was strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett in its novice season so should have gone on to be a 150-160 second season hurdler but it's in here off 134 following a difficult spell. The ground shouldn't be a worry and the light weight won't do it any harm.
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My other longshot for this race is If The Cap Fits 33/1, 7 pl, another largely discarded old sod but who might just be the type to trudge through the mud and murk and, if on a going day, has the back class to win off a mark that would be an insult to its best form.
 
How the day is shaping up and pints consumed will tell me whether 200/1 for Monishter Are Mwee is the type of genius move that'll make my name or the type of genius move that'll make my name.
 
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