The 2022 Longshot Thread

Most horses have a wind issue when they run out of stamina. The horse went hell to leather from the off at Newbury and was pulling further clear at the end. If there was an issue with the breathing, then it would surely have come to light then!

I was very keen on his chances last year, but to me; the way he stopped, had all the hallmarks of a tired horse...
 
I've done another one for the county hurdle.
HACKER DES PLACES 33/1 P.Nicholls.
Its form isnt too bad.
6th as a 4yr old giving weight to older horses.
Then 4th behind Metier and Gowel road.
Dropped 3lb he won a minor race and got put up to a pound above its metier form.
Entered in the Imperial cup.
 
MAGICINTHEMAKING 800k 20/1 best trip.and Holly back on it.off 55.its last win was a long time ago but was off 63 c/d
 
I know its form is not good and if he wins the Irish will be up in arms but JANIKA 25/1 kim Muir must be the best hcapped horse in the country.4 races ado he was on 158 and now runs off 143.
Whether or not it runs is another matter but nrnb.
Interesting to see Sam Waley-Cohen is down to ride MISTER COFFEY if it gets in.
 
I ignored it because it was a flat AW race but am doubly pleased for both Outsider (who's a fantastic supporter of the thread) and the thread itself.

Smashing selection and smashing result.

Well done, Outsider :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:


One of my own going forward into Cheltenham:

Boodles - Tanganyika 50/1, 5pl, NRNB - one run over here for V Williams, finishing an exaggeratedly poor third but enough to keep its mark possibly exaggeratedly low. Its French mark suggests it should be around the mid 130s (121 here) and maybe that's what the handicapper had in mind before its moderate stable debut. The NRNB concession means no harm done if it doesn't make the cut (needs 5 to come out, which will almost certainly happen) or if they decide it isn't good enough and pull it instead (reminds me of a lassie I once knew...)
 
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I've just got to do UP FOR PAROL 20/1 for the imperial cup.probably needs to win to get in the county.
Bet 365 6 places.
 
Festival Bumper - Houlanbatordechais 33/1 - this is a complete and utter hunch but I'm reminded of the time I put up Concertista on the longshot thread a couple of years ago when she made her debut in the mares' novices' hurdle at something crazy like 66/1 and she was nutted on the line by a stablemate also at a big price. I just wonder why they've kept this one in the race at this stage without ever seeing a racecourse before and they know where they stand with the likes of Facile Vega in the field. If it goes out again I might go in again, being the proverbial glutton for punishment.
 
Imperial Cup - Transatlantic 33/1, 6 places - not beaten far in a G1 in France and now with Gary Moore who targets this track successfully. A mark of 130 might be on the lenient side based on his French mark (which doesn't translate quite as leniently as the Boodles favourite but the price is huge by comparison!)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Imperial Cup - Transatlantic 33/1, 6 places - not beaten far in a G1 in France and now with Gary Moore who targets this track successfully. A mark of 130 might be on the lenient side based on his French mark (which doesn't translate quite as leniently as the Boodles favourite but the price is huge by comparison!)
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My other longshot for this race is Hydroplane 40/1, 7pl - impressed me here (heavy ground) the time before last and only 1lb higher now (2lbs lower if you take the jockey's allowance into account). Disappointed next time at Cheltenham (good) but was reportedly struck into so maybe that run is worth stripping out and he could effectively be a winner without a penalty. Either way, on my figures his price is far too big.

I don't have a 'main' bet for the race. I've backed another that doesn't qualify for the thread and am swithering about another about which I've missed the double-digit prices so I might just use that one to cover the rest. Four against the field in a race of this nature would be pretty normal for me. They dutch at about 7/2 so considering they're my four top-rated on career form I'd be hopeful of a good run for my money but wouldn't be surprised if they finished second, third, fourth and fifth :lol:
 
I’ve backed Lebowski at 22/1, partly because I saw a programme about the Coen Brothers on tv the other day and also because Scudamore wrong footed me the other day winning a race when all eyes were on the owners other horse trained by someone else and the Scudamore horse romped home. Which is as good a reason as any these days!
 
DOCTOR DUFFY ultima 40/1 boosted to 45s with betfair.

I know his jumping could be a problem but I thought it was a bit unlucky to fall last time.he had made good ground on the inside that day over 3m 4f in the race won by Death duty with flouer 3rd. They are 7/1 and 10/1 so 40s must be a bit of value.
It's been running over hurdles all season and stumbled and finished 8th in a pertemps qualifier so I think that was the aim and this is plan B.
Only Carrie's 10-2 with his claim.
 
I had to go back to the drawing board after School Boy Hours wasn't declared earlier. I think the Ultima is a very open race. I mentioned Tea Clipper on this forum after he won his novice chase this season.

This came after an excellent season last season when he placed in a couple of high grade handicap hurdles, such as the Coral Cup at this meeting last season.

When you look at his overall profile it is clear he was game as a pebble over hurdles as he never really ran a bad race, winning his fair share of races along the way. So given all this, I think he needs forgiving for a couple of below par novice chase runs at the end of last season. I figure something was definately amiss.

Fast forward the past three months where he hasn't been seen on a track, he is surely an interesting runner in the Ultima Chase, after a wind operation and with his tongue tied.

He could be very well handicapped over fences if you take into account his form over hurdles. It's not often I would forgive a horse his last run, but it was too bad to be true and perhaps the wind operation has helped him. He is my main selection in the big handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.
 
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Marb said:
I had to go back to the drawing board after School Boy Hours wasn't declared earlier. I think the Ultima is a very open race. I mentioned Tea Clipper on this forum after he won his novice chase this season.

This came after an excellent season last season when he placed in a couple of high grade handicap hurdles, such as the Coral Cup at this meeting last season.

When you look at his overall profile it is clear he was game as a pebble over hurdles as he never really ran a bad race, winning his fair share of races along the way. So given all this, I think he needs forgiving for a couple of below par novice chase runs at the end of last season. I figure something was definately amiss.

Fast forward the past three months where he hasn't been seen on a track, he is surely an interesting runner in the Ultima Chase, after a wind operation and with his tongue tied.

He could be very well handicapped over fences if you take into account his form over hurdles. It's not often I would forgive a horse his last run, but it was too bad to be true and perhaps the wind operation has helped him. He is my main selection in the big handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.
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Shortening up massively.
 
Yes I feel he will run a big race.

Tom Lacey knows how to win a big handicap. He did it with Glory and Fortune last month.
 
Wednesday - Grand Annual - Global Citizen 50/1, 6 places - I've been banging on about this one since it ran so well behind Tommy's Oscar at Haydock over hurdles. I'm not convinced Cheltenham is its track but the signs that day was that the horse was back to something like its best, which is very good. I could have fancied him for the County off his hurdles mark so for him to get into a chase off a same ball park figure is all the more interesting. I haven't actually studies the race yet but this might end up being my main bet anyway. (That said, I will be on a few, as is my wont.)
 
I have to do my cliff horse in the coral cup tomorrow

MAZE RUNNER 33/1 7 places betfair boosted to 35s.

Prominent raced who stays 3m.when he won last year he was impressive but hasnt added to it since.this trip should be ok.
 
I will put up one of my own for the Grand Annual who is way overpriced.

Hasankey was formerly with Dermot Weld then changed hands to L.Morgans yard. Hasankey has improved markedly the last three runs over fences, and although those were only small fields, his win the last day over Destined To Shine has worked out nicely with that horse stepping up to class two level and beating a good yardstick in Eclair D'ainay last time out. The Racing Post points out Hasankeys lack of experience in big fields although this is really his first chance at taking on a field of this calibre. I reckon he will run very well.
 
Two for the Ultima:

Lostintranslation 25/1 & Doctor Duffy 40/1

(No time for rationale, sorry.)

Edit - sorry, three: Oscar Elite 20/1
 
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