The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

Saturday, Cheltenham 1.30 - Saint Palais 4/1 - if this one's current OR can be relied upon then he most definitely qualifies for a thread entitled "Should be odds-on". He ran over fences last season, improving to 153 on ORs. His hurdles OR is 148, which is a higher rating than any of the previous five winners of Saturday's race, and his card RPR would be significantly higher. It's just a question of whether that OR can be taken at face value. I'm prepared to accept it and have punted the horse like an odds-on shot. Only one bookie has priced the race up but I can't help thinking this is one that the market will correct over the next couple of days and I wouldn't be surprised if it's 6/4 by the off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Cheltenham 1.30 - Saint Palais 4/1 - if this one's current OR can be relied upon then he most definitely qualifies for a thread entitled "Should be odds-on". He ran over fences last season, improving to 153 on ORs. His hurdles OR is 148, which is a higher rating than any of the previous five winners of Saturday's race, and his card RPR would be significantly higher. It's just a question of whether that OR can be taken at face value. I'm prepared to accept it and have punted the horse like an odds-on shot. Only one bookie has priced the race up but I can't help thinking this is one that the market will correct over the next couple of days and I wouldn't be surprised if it's 6/4 by the off.
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Now shortest at 15/8 and longest at 9/4. If I'd been offered 9/4 yesterday I'd have gone in just as heavily. I wrote at the time elsewhere, "any odds against Saint Palais looks like buying money".


It will be interesting to see what kind of cashout they offer.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Now shortest at 15/8 and longest at 9/4. If I'd been offered 9/4 yesterday I'd have gone in just as heavily. I wrote at the time elsewhere, "any odds against Saint Palais looks like buying money".


It will be interesting to see what kind of cashout they offer.
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Dan Barber is worried it could just be a run to get it ready for the Hennessey.what do you think?
 
That would make me all the more hopeful. If it's thought good enough to be competitive in a race like the Hennessy it should be winning this with its head in its chest.
 
Doubt he’ll go off fav. Good luck DO as my bet on Shearer is fairly modest but there are some very unexposed runners in this.
 
wilsonl said:
Doubt he’ll go off fav. Good luck DO as my bet on Shearer is fairly modest but there are some very unexposed runners in this.
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Whether he goes off fav is immaterial [to me], wilsonl.

When Minella Indo won the AB he beat a string of horses rated in the low-mid 140s. SP is already rated 148. If he runs to that rating it will take an AB-winning performance to beat him. In October? I can't see it, to be honest.
 
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Euronymous said:
OR's for novice hurdlers are absolute nonsense though.
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Largely I agree but once you get to a certain level they take on serious significance. At this time of year it's highly unusual for a novice to run in this race with an OR as high as 148. In a 2m race it's maybe a bit more common but at this trip much less so.

If I get time before I go to bed I'll check through the last few runnings and compare pre-race and post-race ORs of winners.

I reckon most novices improve roughly 10lb into their second season so if SP can improve that much - which I'm not expecting - he'd be on a higher rating than most winners of the Albert Bartlett itself.

That said, I acknowledge that SP is different, having raced largely over fences last season but he's still only five yet has an OR of 154 over fences with the promise of another 10lbs in that sphere.

Nothing is guaranteed in racing but 4/1 was plain wrong.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If I get time before I go to bed I'll check through the last few runnings and compare pre-race and post-race ORs of winners.
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Past winners
1 – pre-race OR/RPR
2 – race performance OR/RPR
3 – end of season OR/RPR

Yr123
21130/123140/142142/147
20134/140135/136141/140
19*146/124144/138151/150
18143/145145/148146/148
17*142/122144/143142/145

<tbody>
</tbody>

*These winners were previously racing over fences with at least one RPR of 150 or more in that sphere already on their CV. Both were short favourites (8/11 & 6/5) for this race.

Saint Palais is now 15/8 generally. Win or lose, 4/1 was plain wrong.
 
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Yes, I even thought 9/4 was a steal when I looked yesterday. The only excuse for the price was that this is just a glorified training run and pipe opener with no serious intention of winning. In case it is just that I covered with Shearer who won well at Worcester a couple of weeks ago.


ps: someone’s just told me that Blandy has planned to campaign him over hurdles with Cheltenham in mind if things go well.
 
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I'm almost cheating with this post but tomorrow Brewin'upastorm (11/10) and McFabulous (Evs) should both be much shorter, I reckon, and they are already odds-on with some firms. I've also taken the double at 3.2/1.
 
Brewin'upastorm deffo should be odds on - but I may have ballsd up with my bet, I punted him in a double with Knappers Hill in the Elite, both around 2/1 before decs. Didn't think of the trip with the pumpkin horse, Sceau Royal may be too quick over 2 miles.
 
Should be 1/20 backing Flightline for every penny in your account is the best advice I have given out since I told my mother to buy penny shares from the Wolf of Wall Street:blink:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm almost cheating with this post but tomorrow Brewin'upastorm (11/10) and McFabulous (Evs) should both be much shorter, I reckon, and they are already odds-on with some firms. I've also taken the double at 3.2/1.
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Them's the breaks. BUAS can go and win now and I'll still end up down on the punts.
 
Tanlic said:
Should be 1/20 backing Flightline for every penny in your account is the best advice I have given out since I told my mother to buy penny shares from the Wolf of Wall Street:blink:
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I agree...he looks in incredible shape too. I remember posting on here during the 2010 BC as I was over there and watching the morning workouts. I posted that Zenyatta was a complete monster and to get the mortgage on....I was completely ignored! :lol:
 
Euronymous said:
OR's for novice hurdlers are absolute nonsense though.
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That is where the clock comes in:). That is quite funny for someone who shouted Altior from October of his novice season to February, then went for Min in the Supreme. What a leveller this game is Euro.
 
I think Euro's assertion is flawed although it might depend on what he means by "absolute nonsense".

There's a team of handicappers working through historical race standards and constantly cross-checking ongoing collateral form.

The ratings can't be perfect but, in my opinion, they provide useful ball-park figures but obviously they can't predict improvement from race to race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think Euro's assertion is flawed although it might depend on what he means by "absolute nonsense".

There's a team of handicappers working through historical race standards and constantly cross-checking ongoing collateral form.

The ratings can't be perfect but, in my opinion, they provide useful ball-park figures but obviously they can't predict improvement from race to race.
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I think race standardisation could be hard at the minor tracks. I would still use the clock, but can't be arsed now with that though, too much work. Would say the same that Euro has said about 2yo maiden races too early on in season. Without the clock in those races, any rating is pure guesswork. You could use the cost prices of the horses involved though to put a measure on a race. I think that is what chaumi is trying to do.
 
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