The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

Saturday, York 4.40 - Winter Power 5/2 - has been woeful this season but all her best form is here and if she’s anywhere near that level she wins with her head in her chest.
 
She's a 4yo filly who's yet to prove she's trained on. Yes she has good York form but she's showed nothing since the Nunthorpe. I question her trainer as well - he should have had her bob on for the Temple Stakes.
 
Since the start of her 3yo season...

Runs away from York (most recent first): 00000 - average RPR 88

Runs at York: 111 - average RPR 117

(Mounty would be proud of me :lol:)
 
Still a question about her training on and so given the title of this thread I think the price is fairly tight. I say fairly because I don't know how the **** Royal Acclain is second fav. That is mind boggling.
 
Not back to form yet but there was more promise there.

The winner was impressive enough but the form doesn't amount to much. Why on earth they would go for £34k when there are £100k handicaps coming up [that she'd hack up in] is beyond my ken, even allowing for the black type situation.
 
Yes, but she could have picked up much more prize money before going into G1.

My problem is that I'm obsessed with valuable handicaps :lol:
 
Fair one. On the face of it beating an exposed handicapper a couple doesn't scream Group 1 but that was her second run of the season and there's loads more to come. Performance of the day for me comfortably.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not back to form yet but there was more promise there.

The winner was impressive enough but the form doesn't amount to much. Why on earth they would go for £34k when there are £100k handicaps coming up [that she'd hack up in] is beyond my ken, even allowing for the black type situation.
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That's always been a rant from me.
 
Euronymous said:
Fair one. On the face of it beating an exposed handicapper a couple doesn't scream Group 1 but that was her second run of the season and there's loads more to come. Performance of the day for me comfortably.
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Don't disagree about how impressive she was and maybe in the big scheme of things a bit of black type might be worth several times the £34k.

Off 92, she'd have got into the £100k handicap at Musselburgh, been ridden to win narrowly, take a 5lbs hit, win another valuable race, take another hit, win another valuable race and then move into weak Listed company (earning black type), then Group company, all the while building up an impressive winning sequence.

(At this point Soba is springing readily to mind.)

But maybe the breeding aspect is more important.

(Then again, I'm not great when it comes to breeding. I've only got the one offspring.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don't disagree about how impressive she was and maybe in the big scheme of things a bit of black type might be worth several times the £34k.

Off 92, she'd have got into the £100k handicap at Musselburgh, been ridden to win narrowly, take a 5lbs hit, win another valuable race, take another hit, win another valuable race and then move into weak Listed company (earning black type), then Group company, all the while building up an impressive winning sequence.

(At this point Soba is springing readily to mind.)

But maybe the breeding aspect is more important.

(Then again, I'm not great when it comes to breeding. I've only got the one offspring.)
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I guess a £100k job would be much harder work than £34k one and an “educational” run that’s not too onerous with some useful pin money attached is the better bet for developing her potential.
 
barjon said:
I guess a £100k job would be much harder work than £34k one and an “educational” run that’s not too onerous with some useful pin money attached is the better bet for developing her potential.
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On yesterday's evidence, she wouldn't have had a hard race off 92 in a handicap.
 
Reminds me of Sir Mark Prescott and Pivotal.
He lamented that Cheveley Park had such an interest in making a stallion of him; if the choice was his he would have run in a 50k 5f 3yo handicap at York the Saturday before Royal Ascot rather than the King Stand Stakes on his seasonal debut.
A punter is always first and foremost a punter !
 
"... going easily when fell two out." [RP race comment].

Unlucky, trefflich. Probably one that got away. A shooda.
 
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