The 2023 Longshot Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
moehat said:
Seemed to be going well till slipping: didn’t see the race so not sure how much it affected his placing but one to keep an eye on I think.
Click to expand...

Trravelled ominiously well until that mis-step/slip. Thr front few pulled miles clear but he was very comfortably clear of the rest despite being given an easy enough time. 2m is the trip and will hopefully have sliped under the radar of the handicapper.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Trravelled ominiously well until that mis-step/slip. The front few pulled miles clear but he was very comfortably clear of the rest despite being given an easy enough time. 2m is the trip and will hopefully have slipped under the radar of the handicapper.
Click to expand...

Yeah nice enough run. I'll stick my neck out and say he's one for a two-and-a-half handicap in the spring. Clearly handles soft, though, so anything before it dries up, he'll be worth a look. Oliver Signy's Ol'man River gelding Rolling River kept close enough tabs till the closing stages to suggest he's got something to give and has already won a bumper.

In my book, the first three home are useful and looked to be before the race, and it was the right result. Which, if correct, suggests those finishing within any sort of hailing distance are all possible handicap winners.
 
Last edited:
Leap of faith coming up.....

Celestial Park 12.45 Donny 200-1 B3


1. Ben Case can get the odd good one
2. Breeding looks very interesting - Walk in the Park out of an unraced Presenting mare (only one sibling, ran 3rd in a Utt novice at 33-1. Didn't do much else in 5 other rules starts but recently won a 3-mile point).
3. Steps up to two-and-a-half first time after unplaced bumper and two two-mile hurdles when given seemingly semi-educational runs out the back. The last race at Huntingdon the first three home look useful and pulled well clear.
4. Ridden by Jack Quinlan - 8 winners from 36 for Ben, a further 16 in the first 4
5 €35k buy

The rest....

The Henderson 4-9 fav has the look of a potential false odds-on (but could win a street, obviously)

I'd have said Ben Pauling's 2nd fav Storminhome is a bigger obvious worry - and he's rated by the yard - but lost 3 weeks work after sustaining a cut in his first race (2nd of 4 to Marble Sands, but if he got the injury early in the race and still finished that close then he could well be a bit of a tool).

Henry Oliver's Malinas gelding DJ Pete will be winning races, but the word here is they'll be looking after him/might run green. If he runs well, chances are he's smart.

Emma Lavelle's and Tom George's might have something. Most others look longer-term prospects though a few have interesting bloodlines.

*************

ofc our mare here may just be lining up for a handicap mark (Ben's Bashers Reflection won about 10 days ago under Quinlan on first handicap start upped to two-and-a-half). But 200-1 is good enough to find out. B3 are offering about 95 for the four. And if she makes no impact here, the next step is likely a handicap where there'll be chances to recover the outlay.
 
Last edited:
Plenty of rain at Donny (1/2 hour away). Can see the Hendo fav being pulled from the 1.50 - on past history,anyway.
 
King of Fashion 1.40 Catt 66-1 generally

You won't see too many 13-year-olds running in a novice handicap chase, for sure.

His chances here depend on recovering the last worthwhile form from the spring of 2021. Ran two pleasing races over 3 miles on soft then, followed by a no-chance two-mile 5 race. The first of those 3 milers was off a similar break to what he's running on here (and note, Don Herbager - as an example - was miles behind in one of them).

Close to 2 year break from those races to this season, with two tailed-off efforts lateish last year. Note both in class 4 events, and saddle slipped in the first of them.

In his history, has a wide margin heavy ground win over 3 miles hurdling. If he can get round cleanly, there are chances he might be the only one still with any running left over the last two.


The others:

A fair few haven't met heavy ground and are not certain to relish the likely slog.

Micky Hammond's Hideo is an unknown, and ridden by Brian Hughes, but they've been struggling to get anything out of him. They've tried multiple distances over both codes and got nothing. Has dropped significantly as a result, 40-odd pounds.

Roccowithlove won a 3 mile soft ground hurdle for Warren Greatrex. Now with Joanne Foster. Won last time out on GS over 3 miles. PU time before on heavy but may not have been fit there.

Couple of other younger horses who might have the legs.

All in all, none of the opposition look anything better than Class 5, which makes Kingy a bet at the current price. 100-1 before the race would seem a possibility. There would be some mild extra confidence if Thomas Wilmott or Ryan Mania were riding, but Derek Fox is OK.

******

Footnote : King of Fashion is out of Desert King, and with King Alfonso seemingly now retired, Kingy will be the last son of Desert King still running under rules (and maybe anywhere). If this is to be his last race, it would surely be a poignant way to close the history book.
 
Last edited:
Catterick 2.50 - Thunderosa 50/35/22s to 2/3/4pl - feasibly handicapped on Irish form and goes for claimers so happy to take the chances.
 
Saturday, Lanzarote Hdle - Stag Horn 22/1, 5pl, BOG (Coral) - I backed this one for the Albert Bartlett last year and even if it wasn't good enough then, I'd have expected it to improve to that kind of level (150+) this season so the fact they appear to have held on to it with this valuable race for its reappearance has me intrigued enough to want to have it onside off 135.
 
Saturday Lanzarote hurdle 240k

UP FOR PAROL 22/1 6 places.

I had big hopes for this horse last year and it went tits up.i thought they were going to go Imperial cup/county hurdle but he never did a tap in the imperial and was pulled up.
Then didnt run at Cheltenham so my 50/1 a/p bet went up in smoke.
Ran well in this race last year and is 4lb lower.take out the winner and he wasnt beaten far.stable has been in form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Catterick 2.50 - Thunderosa 50/35/22s to 2/3/4pl - feasibly handicapped on Irish form and goes for claimers so happy to take the chances.
Click to expand...

I backed it last night at 16’s but have bet it again at 33’s as it wasn’t BOG last night. I had to back Cyclop because it was my second highest rated in the Welsh and I’d kick myself if it won today. I hope Phil wins it with Bushypark, though. Little Bruce is back with them as his owner couldn’t keep him so they’re hoping he’ll be a lucky charm. They know how to win this race.
 
Outsider said:
Saturday Lanzarote hurdle 240k

UP FOR PAROL 22/1 6 places.

I had big hopes for this horse last year and it went tits up.i thought they were going to go Imperial cup/county hurdle but he never did a tap in the imperial and was pulled up.
Then didnt run at Cheltenham so my 50/1 a/p bet went up in smoke.
Ran well in this race last year and is 4lb lower.take out the winner and he wasnt beaten far.stable has been in form.
Click to expand...

Best of luck.

I quite like Camprond at long shot odds now of 20/1. I think his form stacks up. His fourth in a Greatwood Hurdle from 2021 has worked out really well and then a clear fourth in a Coral Cup. I'm hoping he can carry the weight and defy a mark of 147. I think he has a good place chance.
 
Last edited:
Saturday, Kempton 1.30 - Belargus 20/1, 3 places, BOG - This came on my radar earlier today but I didn't act upon it because the horse is a bit of a dog and I was greedily looking for 33s or better. However, it's pretty much blue across the board now so I've taken the 20s with the three places just in case they've just been targeting this race, in which the trainer has a good record from few runners.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Lanzarote Hdle - Stag Horn 22/1, 5pl, BOG (Coral) - I backed this one for the Albert Bartlett last year and even if it wasn't good enough then, I'd have expected it to improve to that kind of level (150+) this season so the fact they appear to have held on to it with this valuable race for its reappearance has me intrigued enough to want to have it onside off 135.
Click to expand...

I've now added Whizz Kid, 25/1, 6 places. This one got a Flat RPR 103 in France (and I reckon RPRs over there are conservative in the lesser races) - so, in theory, could be expected to be a 145 hurdler - and took on Constitution Hill in the Tolworth for his UK hurdling debut before hacking up by a wide margin in a diddy Catterick midden race, then a novice race at Plumpton at 1/6f. Next, he was 3/1f for a £50k novices' handicap hurdle at Aintree (conditionals/amateurs) and was a close fourth after [arguably] doing too much in the lead. He's had a fairly quiet time of it this season but the trainer targets certain races and I wouldn't be surprised of he's been preserving a good mark for this one with valuable races such as this in mind. The claimer has a decent record for him and will take seven off. I'm happy to play at the price and place terms.
 
Lanzarote Hurdle

FWIW I read Ben Pauling saying that Quinta Do Mar had been laid out for this race since he fell at the last fence when holding third in last year’s race. 18/1 atm so almost a longshot :).
 
barjon said:
Lanzarote Hurdle

FWIW I read Ben Pauling saying that Quinta Do Mar had been laid out for this race since he fell at the last fence when holding third in last year’s race. 18/1 atm so almost a longshot :).
Click to expand...

:nono::nono::nono:
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now added Whizz Kid, 25/1, 6 places. This one got a Flat RPR 103 in France (and I reckon RPRs over there are conservative in the lesser races) - so, in theory, could be expected to be a 145 hurdler - and took on Constitution Hill in the Tolworth for his UK hurdling debut before hacking up by a wide margin in a diddy Catterick midden race, then a novice race at Plumpton at 1/6f. Next, he was 3/1f for a £50k novices' handicap hurdle at Aintree (conditionals/amateurs) and was a close fourth after [arguably] doing too much in the lead. He's had a fairly quiet time of it this season but the trainer targets certain races and I wouldn't be surprised of he's been preserving a good mark for this one with valuable races such as this in mind. The claimer has a decent record for him and will take seven off. I'm happy to play at the price and place terms.
Click to expand...

I looked at the race before reading this. My little system threw up Whizz Kid: in fact it was way ahead of the nearest one and I wasn’t going to mention it because looking at its race record I couldn’t make a case for it other than the fact that Dr Newlands horses are running well. And it seemed to run well on soft ground in France. There is money going on it, too.
 
Musaytir 12.40 Ling

Long-standing maiden so risks are pretty obvious. Was 40-1 about 15 mins ago but turning blue and 33-1 best atm. 40s in this field was fair, 33s just about tenable, anything less a no-go.

Visored first time might do the trick. Chances (I think) rest on getting out quickly and maybe 2-3 lengths clear of the bulk at the turn, and he might be able to hold on from there. If he doesn't get out, all evidence suggests it's over (though ofc the visor could change that). Now 5, if there is to be a 'peak', it should happen this year.

Was close to level with one other at the furlong pole and a couple of lengths clear over 7f at Ling a few races back, and ran well from the front in a Wolves 6f prior to that, only getting run out of the first three in the last 100. Nowhere near those two in the last 3 Wolves runs (which might indicate a break is needed).

Gina Mangan has ridden Musaytir from the front/prominently a couple of times and should know what to do.

Grace Harris stable had a 40-1 bumper winner with their last runner (a never-seen-before event, and can pretty much bet the mortgage it'll never happen again).
 
Last edited:
Crikey, we're collectively on half the field in the Lanzarote. It looks just like a Coral Cup to me. Find the class and that might be the answer.
 
Yes, yesterday my summary of the race was:

This is a proper renewal. For years, pre-pandemic too, I was lamenting the deteriorating status of this race and it scraped the bottom two years ago at £16k to the winner. The return last year to £100k has clearly boosted its status and the sponsors have been rewarded with a humdinger in terms of competitiveness. Green Glory (5/1) is favourite and a bit of a spoiler since you never know what the trainer is up to. I can let him go at the price given where he sits in my table. I have more respect for second-favourite Outlaw Peter (6/1) as he is much more lightly raced and with more obvious potential. I’ll have enough on him to cover the other bets which will be on Rathmacknee (20/1, main bet), Whizz Kid (25/1), Stag Horn (22/1) and Scarface (18/1).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top