The 2024 Longshot Thread

Doncaster 3.40, Hidden Heroics 28/1, 4 places, BOG - 16s the other day so left it alone. 33s and pink last night so left it alone hoping for 40s. Blue across the board this morning and 28s tops so I've gone in.
 
Saturday, Newbury 1.20 - Cyclop 20/1 - the trainer has only had two runners in this race and both have won, including this fellow last season. There has to be a fair chance they've had one eye on this race for some time...

Non-runner.

If I'm honest, I'm relieved. Money almost certainly saved.

I don't enjoy watching them take on a slog in a bog.
 
Non-runner.

If I'm honest, I'm relieved. Money almost certainly saved.

I don't enjoy watching them take on a slog in a bog.

I've gone to the subs' bench and called in my old pal Secret Reprieve, 25/1 BOG - hacked up in the Welsh National a few years back. Maybe that race bottomed him early 'cos he's been shite since but he was tipped for stardom at that point. I don't like backing them first time up in heavy ground but if he didn't have a least a squeak I don't think they'd have sought out the services of James Bowen for the ride.
 
Kelso 2.50 - Salsada 30/1, 6 places, BOG - market weakness is a big concern (was 14s tops yesterday) but I had my eye on this one for some time. She's been ready to run since November only to be withdrawn for one reason or another so she's maybe fragile but the chances are she's fitter than might generally be thought for a seasonal debutant. If this isn't the plan then maybe the money is gone before the race is even run but a County entry gives me hope that the penalty will be needed.
 
I've gone to the subs' bench and called in my old pal Secret Reprieve, 25/1 BOG - hacked up in the Welsh National a few years back. Maybe that race bottomed him early 'cos he's been shite since but he was tipped for stardom at that point. I don't like backing them first time up in heavy ground but if he didn't have a least a squeak I don't think they'd have sought out the services of James Bowen for the ride.

Non-runner :lol:
 
Kelso 2.50 - Salsada 30/1, 6 places, BOG - market weakness is a big concern (was 14s tops yesterday) but I had my eye on this one for some time. She's been ready to run since November only to be withdrawn for one reason or another so she's maybe fragile but the chances are she's fitter than might generally be thought for a seasonal debutant. If this isn't the plan then maybe the money is gone before the race is even run but a County entry gives me hope that the penalty will be needed.

Reports are she's 'very fit' and there to run
 
There to run, yes, and that's all.

Never put in it.

Never mind, I dutched her with the winner and Anyharminasking so did ok on the race.
 
Was going to put up In The Air 450 Don when 33s last night but held off and was blue into as low as 10s this morning, so didn't qualify. Now pink and 20s/22s, may drift further.

Had some goodish novice form for Gary Moore. Now with Adam West, who knows how to get winning hurdlers. Ran well enough in Mothill's Ascot race over further a couple of weeks back. Could go well here.
 
There to run, yes, and that's all.

Never put in it.

Never mind, I dutched her with the winner and Anyharminasking so did ok on the race.

3 of the first 4 had had a pipe opener at Kelso previously ( must remember that next year). Speaking to someone at the track they thought the ground was heavy in places. Chuffed that it was won by a small local trainer!
 
NH Chase - Mr Vango 33/1 NRNB - this won the race in which Sidi Ismael ran recently so I ended up watching it, thought afterwards that I should check how the handicapper reacted and keep an eye out for it. Then, of course, it completely slipped my mind. Until last night when I ran off the five-day cards and noticed it in this race. The RP card last night has it on its old OR (120) but it went up to 132 for the win. I think that new OR is extremely conservative. It's maybe worth watching that race again. Yes, it was a very modest event for very modest horses over not far off four miles in an absolute bog but Mr Vango went out in front and just ent further and further clear. The ones that tried to go with it folded early and the runner-up, which struggled to go the early pace, was the one to come through eventually for second place. That was probably as close as it ever could have got. I reckon it probably wasn't too far off , if off at all, its OR. Taking that positive spin, the winner has beaten its OR by 60 lengths. That's about 30lbs at the trip in the conditions. And it won without coming off the bit. To me, it's entirely possible it ran to about 150 that day. To be honest, I'd have thought an entry in the Kim Muir would have been interesting enough but this is its only entry and it will attract a bit of money once the ITV team roll out the Bradstock gushbucket. I don't think it's as far behind the rest of the field as the odds imply and it is totally bombproof in terms of stamina requirements.
 
How about a totally mental, left-field bet?

Supreme - Supersundae 100/1 NRNB - Those with long enough memories will remember I put up Concertista at 80/1 for the mares'novices' hurdle a few years back when she made her debut for Willie Mullins. As it turned out, she was beaten a short-head by a 50/1 stablemate, Eglantine Du Seuil.

So why Supersundae?

How many entries did Willie have in the Supreme?

He's whittled the number down to 8 (assuming Ballyburn doesn't run) at most. Supersundae hasn't run since April and only joined the stable at the turn of the year after one run in its juvenile season and one run last season. It's presumably a fragile animal but what prompted Willie to enter it at all then keep it in the race until this late in proceedings? And why not just qualify it for a handicap?

If it doesn't run, ho harm done but it doesn't hold any other entries so it might run and would Willie really run it if its true chances were 100/1? I'm not sure he would.

At least I'm prepared to pay to find out.
 
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How about a totally mental, left-field bet?

Supreme - Supersundae 100/1 NRNB - Those with long enough memories will remember I put up Concertista at 80/1 for the mares'novices' hurdle a few years back when she made her debut for Willie Mullins. As it turned out, she was beaten a short-head by a 50/1 stablemate, Eglantine Du Seuil.

So why Supersundae?

How many entries did Willie have in the Supreme?

He's whittled the number down to 8 (assuming Ballyburn doesn't run) at most. Supersundae hasn't run since April and only joined the stable at the turn of the year after one run in its juvenile season and one run last season. It's presumably a fragile animal but what prompted Willie to enter it at all then keep it in the race until this late in proceedings? And why not just qualify it for a handicap?

If it doesn't run, ho harm done but it doesn't hold any other entries so it might run and would Willie really run it if its true chances were 100/1? I'm not sure he would.

At least I'm prepared to pay to find out.



If you're looking for a long shot Do, go do the maths...There is a 50/1 shot only a length or two from a podium place..As soon as the temperature gets hot he'll rise to the occasion...

Willie's sitting cool...(Gallagher)
 
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Just had a proper look at the Brown Advisory and reckon it could end up a 6 or 7 runner field and as such Sandor Clegane who finished only just over a length behind Stay Away Fay in last years Albert Bartlett, 20/1 looks a cracking bet.
 
How about a totally mental, left-field bet?

Supreme - Supersundae 100/1 NRNB - Those with long enough memories will remember I put up Concertista at 80/1 for the mares'novices' hurdle a few years back when she made her debut for Willie Mullins. As it turned out, she was beaten a short-head by a 50/1 stablemate, Eglantine Du Seuil.

So why Supersundae?

How many entries did Willie have in the Supreme?

He's whittled the number down to 8 (assuming Ballyburn doesn't run) at most. Supersundae hasn't run since April and only joined the stable at the turn of the year after one run in its juvenile season and one run last season. It's presumably a fragile animal but what prompted Willie to enter it at all then keep it in the race until this late in proceedings? And why not just qualify it for a handicap?

If it doesn't run, ho harm done but it doesn't hold any other entries so it might run and would Willie really run it if its true chances were 100/1? I'm not sure he would.

At least I'm prepared to pay to find out.

You need try harder, DO.

i’ve backed Gold Dancer at 1000 for both novice hurdles! :lol:

Correction. It was only an average of 611 for the Gallagher, so marginally less insane.
 
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I haven't really looked at the race before the 5d decs.

That said, I did take 33/1 Anotherway shortly after the bookies started going NRNB.
 
Working on the previous festival and course form angle I think that Pink Legend is massively overpriced in the Mares Chase at 100/1. Three of her four best RPRs have been at Cheltenham and was third in this race last year, finishing only 5 lengths behind the current second favourite and is 3lbs better off. You have to ignore this seasons form but at 100/1 I think that's more than acceptable.
 
How about a totally mental, left-field bet?

Supreme - Supersundae 100/1 NRNB - Those with long enough memories will remember I put up Concertista at 80/1 for the mares'novices' hurdle a few years back when she made her debut for Willie Mullins. As it turned out, she was beaten a short-head by a 50/1 stablemate, Eglantine Du Seuil.

So why Supersundae?

How many entries did Willie have in the Supreme?

He's whittled the number down to 8 (assuming Ballyburn doesn't run) at most. Supersundae hasn't run since April and only joined the stable at the turn of the year after one run in its juvenile season and one run last season. It's presumably a fragile animal but what prompted Willie to enter it at all then keep it in the race until this late in proceedings? And why not just qualify it for a handicap?

If it doesn't run, ho harm done but it doesn't hold any other entries so it might run and would Willie really run it if its true chances were 100/1? I'm not sure he would.

At least I'm prepared to pay to find out.

Still in it, with Patrick riding.
 
NH Chase - Mr Vango 33/1 NRNB - this won the race in which Sidi Ismael ran recently so I ended up watching it, thought afterwards that I should check how the handicapper reacted and keep an eye out for it. Then, of course, it completely slipped my mind. Until last night when I ran off the five-day cards and noticed it in this race. The RP card last night has it on its old OR (120) but it went up to 132 for the win. I think that new OR is extremely conservative. It's maybe worth watching that race again. Yes, it was a very modest event for very modest horses over not far off four miles in an absolute bog but Mr Vango went out in front and just ent further and further clear. The ones that tried to go with it folded early and the runner-up, which struggled to go the early pace, was the one to come through eventually for second place. That was probably as close as it ever could have got. I reckon it probably wasn't too far off , if off at all, its OR. Taking that positive spin, the winner has beaten its OR by 60 lengths. That's about 30lbs at the trip in the conditions. And it won without coming off the bit. To me, it's entirely possible it ran to about 150 that day. To be honest, I'd have thought an entry in the Kim Muir would have been interesting enough but this is its only entry and it will attract a bit of money once the ITV team roll out the Bradstock gushbucket. I don't think it's as far behind the rest of the field as the odds imply and it is totally bombproof in terms of stamina requirements.

Still in. Only seven runners now but Coral and Ladbrokes are going three places and are joint longest at 25/1. The rain will have done its chances no harm at all.
 
Horses never used to win the ultima (or any race at Cheltenham) if they were running in the National, but recently Tiger roll x country and CR won the ultima so I think Kitty's Light is too big at 40/1 for the ultima 6 places and boosted to 44/1.
Won the eider,Scottish national and bet 365 within 8 weeks so can do it.
Love to know what Christian Williams is thinking.
Nothing will be staying on better if he's on the job.
 
Horses never used to win the ultima (or any race at Cheltenham) if they were running in the National, but recently Tiger roll x country and CR won the ultima so I think Kitty's Light is too big at 40/1 for the ultima 6 places and boosted to 44/1.
Won the eider,Scottish national and bet 365 within 8 weeks so can do it.
Love to know what Christian Williams is thinking.
Nothing will be staying on better if he's on the job.

West Tip (better than sex) 1986
Seagram 1991
Rough Quest 1995

All won the Ultima!
 
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West Tip (better than sex) 1986
Seagram 1991
Rough Quest 1995

All won the Ultima!

Yes I know.28 yrs +.(and wasn't it Rough quest that was better than sex)
Seagram winning the Ritz was part of my ew lucky 15 with garrison savannahs and oh so risky.
 
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