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The 2025 Grand National

moehat said:
Is class 1 the same as grade one? I backed Auroras Encore after realising that a stand out stat was winning a class 1. Although he would never have won if the fences hadn't been modified. I do like stats when it comes to big races although it’s difficult to use them with the National these days as it changes so much. A 7 year old winning just about finished me off. Although Many Clouds was still technically a 7 year old when he won.
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Hi Moehat, I have come up with a number of theories regarding the Grand National, ever since I stood out on the course and watched my horse Crisp win, only to find out later Red Rum had (lol). The term class I believe is used in handicap racing, so not to be confused with Grade. I am not sure if this is so in flat racing. Although the Grand National's prize money these days, is definetly worth winning, the race itself can only be given premier class 1 status because it is a handicap. So with my two observations from last year, horses qualify through either winning or taking part this winter season in a Graded race (not a class handicap). I also forgot to add that Graded race needs to be at a distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs or further. If you are mad enough like me (lol), to bet on these horses with only one year evidence. I will provide a list of them, once a bookmaker goes Non Runner Money Back on the race 👍.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay.

Here's my thinking:

  • Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty.
  • A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National.
  • In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162.
  • He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn't always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving.
  • My idea is that when SAF couldn't win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn't a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National.
  • His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It's what they do in Ireland, after all, isn't it?
  • The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen

He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he's entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse.
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On my short list as well.
When the weights came out 2 seasons ago, I jumped on Vanillier ew at 100/1. Similar profile. Both ex Albert Bartlett winners. Vanillier ran off 147, Fay is 150. Generous for grade 1 winners. Transition from hurdling to chasing was a problem for Vanillier. Stay away Fay started off well, but 3 consecutive PPPs may hint at an underlying problem.
 
Alex said:
Hi,

No need to message me privately.

The two rules/observations from last year's national result was these.

Back every horse each way, perhaps 10/1 or less win.

There are two ways a horse can qualify as a selection.

1. Horse has won a Grade 1 race

And/Or

2. Horse has contested a Grade 1 race the winter season leading up to the National.

Either way a horse can qualify as a selection.
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Hi, I am not sure if I can reply to myself, but I forgot to state the distance of the Graded race need to be 2 miles 4 furlongs or greater.
 
Intense Raffles will be 5lbs well in at Aintree after being raised that amount for his run in the Bobbyjo. Nick Rockett has been left alone.

Come the day, a few others will be running off advantageous marks if they come out and win or run very well in the big Saturday or Cheltenham handicaps in the meantime.

If memory serves, I Am Maximus was 10lbs well in last year.
 
And in the likely manufactured soft ground, I'll be allowing two lengths per pound in my calculations.

Sometimes, if quite a few of the previous running's horses are going again, I map them out on a piece of paper with a ruler using a cm per pound and then converting each cm to two lengths.

For example, I'll make a mark to represent the winning post about 2/3 way along the page and that will represent that previous year's winner on my figures. I'll then map the others to the left of it on the lower side of the line.

Then I'll map this year's rating difference (not weight) above the line.

So I A Maximus will appear at the mark underneath the line (cos he won) but since he is 8 higher in the ratings I'll map him 8 cm to the left of that above the line. Delta Work is no longer with us. Minella Indo (3rd) beaten 8 lengths, will be 4cm from IAM under the line but is a pound lower so will be 1cm to the right above the line. Galvin will be next to MI below the line and above it since he too is a pound lower. Coko Beach, though will be just over 16cm to the left of IAM under the line but he is 11lbs lower so will map 11cm to the right of that above the line, 3cm in front of IAM. So in theory CB should finish six lengths in front of IAM at the revised weights (19lbs for 33 lengths).

The question is, how liely is that to work out in practice. For me, IAM was getting better the further they went, is a year more mature and very probably better so could confirm his superiority but CB got messed about in running and maybe we didn't see the best of him. All part of the fun of the National. IAM is currently 14/1 and CB is 100/1 so I know which I want to be on at this stage.

But all that only relates to last year's runners who are running again.

There will be other runners who are better handicapped this year than IAM was last year. They are the ones I want to be on.

Edit - One such type might be Hewick who went up to 169 for winning the King George the season before last but gets in here off 161. He's 66/1. My concern with him is the likely manufactured soft ground as he really needs it good so I don't really want to back him until somebody goes NRNB.
 
Just watched last year's race again. Coko Beach can be rated as finishing at the very least 10 lengths ahead of where he did. He was running a great race but the leader on the inside, Eldorado Allen, started to weaken after four out and CB was following him. The others started making their move outside EA and CB had nowhere to go so he was shuffled back up to ten lengths before room became available for him to edge out. He made his ground again after that but that uses up energy and he was done going to the last, at which point he was very much looked after.

The Youtube replay I watched went on to interview Mullins and then Townend and the latter mentioned CB ("the grey") several times as the one he was "locked on to" and how well it (CB) was jumping.

I'm still reluctant to get involved without NRNB and I'm not often convinced about runners that come back for another go. Many will give it everything on their first attempt but maybe don't remember it with fondness the second time and don't give their all. (Some do, obviously.)
 
I prefer to back horses that are running in it for the first time. But I think I’ll back Coko Beach because, even if he does have any unpleasant memories of Aintree he’ll just be thinking to himself’ at least I haven’t got to jump the Taxis today’.
 
When a 100/1 shot is suggested, I will always give it a second look, just watched 2024 again. What is noticeable about last year, is how the horses that had raced in grade 1 races were able to, what seemed like sprint to the finish. And because of this Coko Beach and other's lost their position's.

I think the race has changed and the quality horses will come to the front, unless the ground reduces the impact of their natural speed but I could easily be wrong 😆.
 
Alex said:
When a 100/1 shot is suggested, I will always give it a second look, just watched 2024 again. What is noticeable about last year, is how the horses that had raced in grade 1 races were able to, what seemed like sprint to the finish. And because of this Coko Beach and other's lost their position's.

I think the race has changed and the quality horses will come to the front, unless the ground reduces the impact of their natural speed but I could easily be wrong 😆.
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The winner certainly quickened, his closing sectional was 110%.

He also got the most efficient ride in the entire field.

They went fast early but the pace eased for a fair bit and I reckon that that, as much as anything else, allowed the class horses to come to the fore. When they go fast throughout weight and stamina limitations are more likely to kick in. The thing is, though, that with the course manufacturing soft ground, the pace is likely to be easier as riders want to conserve their horses' energy because many of them are doubtful stayers to begin with.

It is a genuine stamina test because they do tend to go fast early these days and the fencer are easier so they're taking them faster than ever.

I Am Maximus ran off 159 last year, Coko Beach off 161 so, apart from the difference in the ratings, I Am Maximus will have 6lbs more to carry but Coko Beach will have 13lbs less.

Handicaps exist for a reason.

I heard Mick Fitz on Saturday morning, talking about Kandoo Kid's Hennessy win, saying 'he's 7lbs higher, would he have won that race with 7lbs more on his back? I think so'. This kind of shite punditry annoys me no end. He should be trying to educate the casual viewer. 7lbs at the Hennessy distance is 10 lengths and he won by less than two (but probably value for two). So, in handicapping theory, if he'd carried 7lbs more that day he'd arguably have finished somewhere between Henry's Friend and Senior Chief. And that doesn't take into account others re-opposing on lower marks.

Of course it isn't all about pounds and lengths but they are the foundations of handicapping.

This isn't to say that Coko Beach WILL reverse the form with IAM. That performance marked the latter out as a Gold Cup contender and in any other yard that's probably where he'd have gone but they happen to have GDC at the yard, plus IAM is entitled to have improved again.

I just think the revised terms along with the interference CB suffered at a crucial stage makes the difference in odds too great.
 
Thank you for such a detailed reply. I do take your point about CB, but I would suggest he lost his position through lack of pace rather than interference. But once that had happened, CB may have saulked.

I do agree if the race had been a genuine stamina test, the race could have easily produced a different result. I guess what I am suggesting, is that the days of the National being a stamina test may be over, unless the ground becomes heavy going.
 
I'd say the Grand National is a greater stamina test than ever - as previously discussed, easier fences means an end-to-end gallop both circuits, long gone are the days of a Gay Trip 2m4f chaser winning it, ditto a 3m Park course chaser.

The shorter trip is obviated by the stronger pace throughout and I'd say, with the quality of entry now higher, it's like a Gold Cup for 4m+ quality stayers.
 
Alex said:
Thank you for such a detailed reply. I do take your point about CB, but I would suggest he lost his position through lack of pace rather than interference.
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Have another look, Alex.

Watch how CB is right behind EA on the rail going as well as anything four out. Immediately after the fence IAM edges out - could this be where Townend won the race? - and moves alongside him. Look at the ones who go past EA on his outer and move several lengths ahead. CB has nowhere to go and when he eventually gets out the ones who were alongside him a furlong earlier are about 10 lengths in front. CB is now at least five lengths behind IAM and then asked to go after that group and jumps the second last right alongside IAM but at that stage of a race like the National that effort takes its toll. He wasn't far off the lead at the last and was looked after (hands and heels at best from the last).

I'm not suggesting that CB would have gone close to winning but he'd probably have finished alongside or just behind Kitty's Light and I think he's been treated very leniently by the handicapper this time. It isn't hard to imagine that Gainford gave Elliott a glowing report on how the horse had run and jumped and that another attempt off a much lower mark twelve months hence was immediately planned. He looked like winning the Pardubicka (same trip as Aintree) when unseating two out and has been running in bank & cross-country races this season apart from a schooling session in the Thyestes under a 7lbs claimer.

I'm not saying CB will win this year. I'm just saying his price is wrong.
 
I have just watched the race again, I agree CB did suffer when Eldorado Allen started to fall back. I am not just totally convinced he would have finished 5th/6th. But what do I know, when it comes to handicaps I have not got a clue, apart from my 2 observations from last year (lol).

Yet me know if you have backed CB, and I will have my 2 penny ew on him. I see Unibet are 100/1 (5 places). Talking of handicaps, I could not help but have a nibble on Iceo Madrik 14/1 for Cheltenham's Cross Country after watching the French race he won on 21st October. I know he did not get further than the 3rd fence in the Stumptown's Cheltenham race, but at 14/1, I think he is worth a small win interest 🤔.
 
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