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The 2025 Grand National

Len Madeiros said:
I think for a while, that the GN was an “easier” puzzle to solve. Up until around 2005, any horse carrying under 11st, had run within the last 42 days, and had finished no lower than fifth in its last race found itself on my shortlist.

I did find a good few winners and places, but then meddling Phil Smith set the handicap to attract a better class of horse. And he did a great job, too.

It’s a much harder puzzle to solve these days, because the “trends” keep changing.
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And a lot of horses would be running from out of the handicap, too.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
In the absence of Jack Kennedy, Gordon Elliott has snapped up Sean Bowen for Three Card Brag - interesting contender. 28/1 best price.

Bryony a frost can’t ride Stay away Fay, so Jonathan Burke will.
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Damn. I only backed it recently because it comes under my ‘have to back it as don’t want to be willing it not to win if in contention because I like the horse/trainer/jockey’ rule. I’d always wanted Bryony to be the first female winner of the National.
 
In or seriousness I played Crown Green Bowls this afternoon. I wore three layers when we started at 1pm, by 4pm I had peeled off two layers, and I have just been for a lie down, sunstroke I think ? The Green was more like what it used to be in August, firm and fast. I live in South Liverpool.
 
Of the last four winners of the race only one Coach Rambler had set foot on the course.
It used to be that previous form in the race was vital but now that the race has been diluted somewhat it is no longer the case.
The horse I have backed at 33/1 is Grangeclare West who won 5 of his first seven starts under rules and ran a great race when
2nd beaten 4 and 3/4 lengths by Galopin Des Champs with Fact or File short head back in third.
He was running on after the last to pip Fact or File so he should stay the distance.
You can discount his latest start as Mullins had to get a chase run into him to qualify for the race.
 
Does anyone know these horses so well, as to know if they can run on Good ground ?

Hewick has been mentioned but a list would be great. I am beginning to wonder, even with watering they can make the ground soft enough. If they can't, we will struggle to have 20 runners let alone 34.
 
Try to remember the race is being run on Aintree racecourse and not the South Liverpool Crown Green Bowls venue you visited today, Alex. 😂

One is a racecourse with a dirty great big sprinkler system, the other isn't. 😂

The career form of every horse is on the RP database if you want to research their apparent ground preferences thus far in their careers for yourself - they do say "give a man a hand up, not a hand out." 👍
 
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Good job you're not from Scotland with connections to Manchester, Alex, or forumites would begin asking some serious questions..

Keywords, 2000 Guineas and Jamie Spencer, would jam up the forum search engine.
 
Mr Incredible was barred from running for failing to complete in six of his last seven starts.

For those not au fait with form figures. a "P" denotes "pulled up" and not "p*ssed in" (an old Hull betting shop joke from the 1980s, where a drunk, while asked at the pay-out window how he unearthed the 66/1 winner he was about to be paid out over, replied: "It was obvious from its form: "PPP" - it p*ssed in in its last three races!") 😂
 
Desert Orchid said:
They've been watering since 17 March.

Today's going stick reading of 4.0 is soft ground regardless of what the going map says. It was more than 4.0 the day of the Midlands National and they were going right in that day and the time was over 40s slow despite the fast pace with the majority pulling up.

View attachment 24064
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I was at Uttoxeter on midlands grand national day and I would say the going was soft bordering on heavy
Numerous horses were pulled up in almost every race.
The only way of knowing how the going is riding is the going stick.
Tony calvin wrote a piece last week regarding going reports.
He was claiming that clerk of the courses are not following the bha guidelines with regards to going sticks and letting the public know just how much water they are applying each day prior to racing.
The racing public deserve better and should be treated as such.
 
The reality is that racecourses are dependant on maximising field sizes because that impacts on media rights revenue.

So CoCs say whatever is likely to maximise the number of horseboxes that arrive at the track.

They try to contrive to try to get the two golden words both "Good" and "Soft" in the going description so there is "something for everyone" and no one knows the reality until they get trackside.

That's why you get spates of withdrawals when they're been particularly economic with the actualité but, if just one trainer decides to run anyway now they're there, all the dishonesty was worth it.

The only accurate info they give is the going stick reading and that's why people like me aren't remotely interested in what they say and make an independent study of stick readings and race times to ascertain what a stick reading actually means at a particular track.

Do I wish they were more honest with punters?

Frankly, no - I get an edge most days of the week by knowing the ground isn't as officially described and that wouldn't be the case if it was all transparent.

It's "Dog Eat Dog" in this game.
 
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I absolutely understand, Ian.

I freely admit while I do pay attention to this ongoing debate, I haven't done enough research on going stick readings.

A bit like when a chap once tryed to explain how to calculate time ratings and class pars to me, I wish I'd investigated it further.

The nearest I get to being an expert is checking the BBC five day weather forecast for the tracks.

Pathetic, I know.
 
I don't think it's pathetic at all.

Different people are into the game on different levels and what I would say is you seem to have a healthy awareness of what you know (and don't know) about this game and that can't be said for everyone.

I've was doing my own independent time ratings as a teenager in the late 1970s and got the bloke who went on to be Phil Bull's assistant (and eventually succeeded him) doing Timeform's Computer Time Figures into racing (I sat next to him in Economics lessons 😂) and I've devoted a lot of my life to all this racing and betting malarkey.

I'm a deeply, DEEPLY, boring man and far from being a well-rounded individual - I do like a good mint chocolate chip ice-cream, though! 😂

Each to their own. 👍
 
Desijo said:
I was at Uttoxeter on midlands grand national day and I would say the going was soft bordering on heavy
Numerous horses were pulled up in almost every race.
The only way of knowing how the going is riding is the going stick.
Tony calvin wrote a piece last week regarding going reports.
He was claiming that clerk of the courses are not following the bha guidelines with regards to going sticks and letting the public know just how much water they are applying each day prior to racing.
The racing public deserve better and should be treated as such.
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I was there as well, i backed Mr Vango but arrived at the course with no intention of backing him, i realised after the 2nd race that it was a gluepot and changed my mind

Same thing happened in 2022, i backed Hewick thinking the ground had dried out and he ran like a pig in the glue
 
Not all courses' going stick readings (GSR) are the same but a few examples:

Utt on MGN day: 5.1 (watered) ('G-S' - times very slow, going allowances (GA) more than a second per furlong)
Aintree Nov meeting: 'G-S, (watered)', GSR 6.5 & 6.7

Last season
Aintree Oct: 'G-S, S in places', GSR 4.8 & 4.7, GA 0.85spf
Aintree Dec: 'Heavy', GSR, 2.5, 2.4 & 2.4, GA 2.35spf
Aintree Apr:
Thu - 'S, H in places', GSR 3.1, 3.7, 3.2, GA 1.3spf
Fri - 'S, GN S, H in places', GSR 3.9, 3.9, 3.6, GA 1.2spf
Sat - 'G-S, S in places, GN S, G-S in places, GSR 5.0, 4.3, 4.2, GA 0.9spf

Any going allowance that gets close to 1.0spf indicates genuinely soft ground. Anything above 1.5spf is starting to approach heavy. Over 2.0 is definitely heavy.

The current going stick reading indicates the softer side of soft. That might well be the plan, ie to keep it soft until Thursday and then allow nature to take its course so that by Saturday it will be genuinely good to soft but it could then end up quite holding/tacky.

One thing it will NOT be is good.
 
THE GOING IN WOLVERHAMPTON
Given all the banter and arguments over the going at Aintree,I thought I would add my findings by doing going tests on my lawn in Wolverhampton as we are only 70 miles or so away from Aintree.
Using a Broom Stale as the "Stick"
I found the top of the lawn was on the soft side of good
In the middle it was good.
At the bottom it was firm.
I have no plans to water.
Hope this helps all those worrying about AINTREE.
ROFLOFFIN.
Tight Reins Guys
 
chinawolf said:
THE GOING IN WOLVERHAMPTON
Given all the banter and arguments over the going at Aintree,I thought I would add my findings by doing going tests on my lawn in Wolverhampton as we are only 70 miles or so away from Aintree.
Using a Broom Stale as the "Stick"
I found the top of the lawn was on the soft side of good
In the middle it was good.
At the bottom it was firm.
I have no plans to water.
Hope this helps all those worrying about AINTREE.
ROFLOFFIN.
Tight Reins Guys
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Also from that neck of the woods i can confirm good to firm with lawns well overdue. I have to own up to rail movements. I have dolled out the fences due to catshit making the bends treacherous adding an extra 12 yards to the course.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Try to remember the race is being run on Aintree racecourse and not the South Liverpool Crown Green Bowls venue you visited today, Alex. 😂

One is a racecourse with a dirty great big sprinkler system, the other isn't. 😂

The career form of every horse is on the RP database if you want to research their apparent ground preferences thus far in their careers for yourself - they do say "give a man a hand up, not a hand out." 👍
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Just for the record I live 7 miles from Aintree racecourse not 700 miles.
 
Anadin said:
Beauport (will run forever) ground makes no difference 33's over priced, It will be interesting who gets the booking.

Ill be keen on whatever Reveley gets booked for (Bravemansgame ?) as the GN is getting more & more like Auteuil.
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Reveley gets the leg up on Bravesmangame likes better ground , just hoping he will stay.

p.s Be interesting what headgear they put on.
 
moehat said:
Mr Incredible has been scratched, thank goodness. Wouldn’t have been fair if he kept another horse out of running.
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He's actually been banned from the race according to the RP:
www.racingpost.com

Mr Incredible barred from running in Saturday's Grand National after failing to complete in six of last seven starts

The Sandy Thomson-trained Mr Incredible has been barred from participating in Saturday's Randox Grand National following scrutiny by the National... Read More
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com

And I don't think this is a bad thing despite having a ridiculous "spat with a twat" on Reddit a couple of days ago. I innocently posted that I didn't feel that he should run due to being a target for the Antis "Oh look at that poor horse being made to run when it doesn't" He's clearly not in love with the game and has become increasingly temperamental. So why is this? Well I suggested that he may well have an underlying issue that hasn't been identified yet....which can happen. A horse cannot say "I am feeling a bit sore on my left front leg" so he will indicate a problem but showing lameness or hanging away from the pain or jumping away from it. If it's something like a heart condition (far harder to identify if you're not actively looking for it) then he may just say "Actually I don't think I will bother racing today, if that's OK with you?" Horses on the whole are pretty simple creatures that do really want to please you.

The Reddit guy was having none of it though. He was a "tipster" based in Newmarket...so he KNEW! Told me I was talking crap and the trainer knew the horse better than me. Which of course he does...doesn't mean to say the horse should run if it doesn't want to and I am very pleased to see that the BHA have agreed with my thoughts.
 
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