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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
The market did indeed tell the story. Clearly either not ready yet or not off. The main bet was L'Homme Presse and I'm still writing through clenched teeth thinking about the ride it got. I don't believe a horse that was good enough to finish third in a King George should have struggled for pace in a handicap in which the opponents are rated 146 and less. Maybe this was just a prep for something down the line.
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It'll probably be a return visit at the end of January for the Cotswold Chase again. ( Grey Dawning could run in that unless the ground is heavy.)
I heard Warren Greatrex say some time ago that the main target for Herakles Westwood in the first half of the season was the Welsh National. He could still run in that as he didn't have too hard a race, and looks to need further on possibly softer ground.
 
edgt said:
Khaadem is one of those prices this weekend in Sha Tin HKsprint.
The Lion In Winter is 16/1 for the HK mile.
Juicy prospect for an ew double methinks.
Pity I just missed Mags Mullins' Cheltenham winner to fund it....
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Thanks for heads up - Khaadem one of my cliff horses too!
 
Desert Orchid said:
The market did indeed tell the story. Clearly either not ready yet or not off. The main bet was L'Homme Presse and I'm still writing through clenched teeth thinking about the ride it got. I don't believe a horse that was good enough to finish third in a King George should have struggled for pace in a handicap in which the opponents are rated 146 and less. Maybe this was just a prep for something down the line.
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National, I'm guessing
 
edgt said:
Khaadem is one of those prices this weekend in Sha Tin HKsprint.
The Lion In Winter is 16/1 for the HK mile.
Juicy prospect for an ew double methinks.
Pity I just missed Mags Mullins' Cheltenham winner to fund it....
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Thankfully I follow Paul Willis’s runners because Adam trains for him. I only spotted the colours at the last minute and then followed the wrong horse throughout the race because his horses usually run in cheek pieces. Having given up on it I suddenly realised at the end of the race that he’d won!
 
L'HP for the Natinal would be a barge pole job for me, not because he'd struggle with the fences or trip but just because off a mark in the 160s he'd struggle to give a stone to a Mullins horse that is probably a 170 horse getting in off around 150, as NIck Rockett and I Am Maximus were.
 
Big Cadillac 3.00 Chelt

This race looks strong, as you'd expect from a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice. Lucinda's looks a tank, most of the others could be anything.

But Big Cadillac has been on the drift, now out to 33s in places, and 28 generally. Bits of mid 30s on the exchange. There's no logic to that drift, Skelton has already said he can't split his two runners. Though we can't trust what he says, can we!

It was a strong race when he was beaten about 6 lengths into 6th at Ffos Las over two and a half (Starzand the winner, 5th placed Gatineau Park won since). 3 miles should suit BC better here.
 
chaumi said:
Big Cadillac 3.00 Chelt

This race looks strong, as you'd expect from a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice. Lucinda's looks a tank, most of the others could be anything.

But Big Cadillac has been on the drift, now out to 33s in places, and 28 generally. Bits of mid 30s on the exchange. There's no logic to that drift, Skelton has already said he can't split his two runners. Though we can't trust what he says, can we!

It was a strong race when he was beaten about 6 lengths into 6th at Ffos Las over two and a half (Starzand the winner, 5th placed Gatineau Park won since). 3 miles should suit BC better here.
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His jockey has - took 11/2 earlier.
 
Quote Harry...

"I take the ride on Carlenrig, who ran really well first time out at Chepstow and he’s come on nicely since then. Conman John looks the one to beat but the three-mile trip should suit us here and hopefully he’ll run well. He’s a chaser in the making.

As is Big Cadillac. He ran well at Ffos Las last time out and the form of that race has worked out well. He stays well and is in good form, there’s nothing between the two of them. We’re expecting them both to run well,"


Dan had already pretty much said don't take too much notice of the jockey bookings.

OFC, they could both be playing the game!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sat, Doncaster 3.17 - Vernon Subutex 66/1

According to the RP it hasn't run for 527 days but it actually ran in France just over a year ago, hacking up in a handicap hurdle off 56kg (123 literally, although the RP is showing it as 117) and it gets to run here off 108, a mark off which it has been beaten twice, but it also won a chase off 119 for David Pipe earlier in its career. It won that race last year after 151 days off so maybe it doesn't take a lot of getting fit. I'm happy to have a pop at it at those odds. It's a cheap bet even if it gets hammered.

Edit - ... and if it wins I'll probably get hammered as well.
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I'm afraid Roisin has a lot to learn. I thought she heading into town for a coffee there.
 

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