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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Seems like we all backed the wrong long shot to place in Ireland? Relieved that I followed you with Goshen. As with Hewick I usually back him because I’d hate to not be willing him to win if he was upsides at the last. Let’s hope the Moore horses are starting to find their form now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leo 4.05

Still, in the same race I was always going to back another longshot and managed to get 50/1 Lisnamult Lad when I was only expecting 25/1.

The swings and arrows of outrageous roundabouts...
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"The swings and arrows of outrageous roundabouts..." indeed. LL ran a great race but was ultimately run out of fourth place. Maybe just did too much up front.
 
Robicheaux said:
Looking at Grange Walk, Leopardstown 4.05 on Saturday. Has come 2nd in this race previously + was in the act of running well in it again a year later, before coming down 2 out. Eleven, or 12lb lower now. Looks out of form at the moment hence the 50/1 available. Who knows, back in the race may rejuvenate him.
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Nice one !
Ran a great race 3rd at 50/1.
Turned a so so day into a winning one.
Thanks👍🏻
 
Musselburgh 3.00

The old warrior Wakool runs here on a rating of 125. He's got a great win strike rate of 7/29, just under 25 percent, and has done well for the yard over the years, although he's done precious little recently. He did win the Rendledham Hurdle two years ago, when rated 139. His form figures around Musselburgh read a very respectable 43211240, and while the favourite will be mighty hard to beat, I think Wakool rates a decent longshot.
 
Leo 3.50

Batman Girac 28/1, 5 places
Any Road 33/1, 5 places

Batman Girac is top on my ratings and a second-season novice so almost certainly 10lbs better than I can rate him,

Any Road is third top and technically a second-season novice though he has clocked up ten starts. Still if he won at a nice price from that position in my table and I hadn't backed it I'd be annoyed with myself.

(I suspect McLaurey will run away with it.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Leo 3.50

Batman Girac 28/1, 5 places
Any Road 33/1, 5 places

Batman Girac is top on my ratings and a second-season novice so almost certainly 10lbs better than I can rate him,

Any Road is third top and technically a second-season novice though he has clocked up ten starts. Still if he won at a nice price from that position in my table and I hadn't backed it I'd be annoyed with myself.

(I suspect McLaurey will run away with it.)
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Just seen that Any Road got 5th at 40/1. Another few shekels recouped.
 
King william rufus 3.35 Newbury tomorrow
Won well at Ascot 2 starts ago beating Kabral du mathan who has since run well in big top class handicaps.
I'm prepared to forgive KWR his last run as it may have come too soon after his win at Ascot.
If back to his big field win at Ascot he's overpriced at 33/1.
 
Desijo said:
King william rufus 3.35 Newbury tomorrow
Won well at Ascot 2 starts ago beating Kabral du mathan who has since run well in big top class handicaps.
I'm prepared to forgive KWR his last run as it may have come too soon after his win at Ascot.
If back to his big field win at Ascot he's overpriced at 33/1.
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I can see where you and DO are coming from with KWR and through KDM it it must have a chance.
Rain could be a concern according to Chris Gordon today.
 
Outsider said:
mirabad. sweppes 25/1 hills +a boost 27.63/1 4places.
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I've finally decided I'm following you (and me) in, lol.

Mirabad took a keen hold the last day. I think he wants to go even faster. I hope so.

I considered Navajo but I'm not sure about his running style and moreover lack of fluency for a race like this, and he can make the odd mistake.
 
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Stayers' Hurdle - Nemean Lion 50/1. Taking a wee chance in not going with the NRNB concession but at those odds it doesn't need to be a big bet. I'm expecting it to give Beauport a fright on Saturday and if it wins it will go up to about 160. All ifs, buts and mibbes but if you ain't in you can't win.
 
Dans le vent 1st race Ascot tomorrow 20/1
Now a 12 year old ,but has run.some decent races over the years.
If getting a fast pace to aim at can outrun his odds.
Looks fairly handicapped on best form.
 
Saturday's Eider Chase - Knockanore 40/1, 5 places - with PP but they restricted me to a few quid so had to take the rest at Ladbrokes (33/1). This is my main fancy in the race but I'm relying on my gut to an extent. He's a first-season novice whose breeding (Shantou x Oscar) suggests the London Marathon might not be far enough but who has only once raced beyond 2½ miles, last time, and could be an awful lot better than his mark at this trip. I think any rain will help him a lot too.
 
Bretney: Eider chase tomorrow.
Consistent is not a word you would use for this horse,but he Is a strong stayer and has won several of these slogs.Has a decent record 2nd time out each season.
Currently 40/1.
 
Nelson County 250 L 25/1 bet 365. 11/1 generally.
dont know whether or not the trainer thinks 105 is a good hcap mark.
i put it in my alerts for hcaps and steps up in trip which looks good.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday's Eider Chase - Knockanore 40/1, 5 places - with PP but they restricted me to a few quid so had to take the rest at Ladbrokes (33/1). This is my main fancy in the race but I'm relying on my gut to an extent. He's a first-season novice whose breeding (Shantou x Oscar) suggests the London Marathon might not be far enough but who has only once raced beyond 2½ miles, last time, and could be an awful lot better than his mark at this trip. I think any rain will help him a lot too.
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Great spot Do
Very well done
You're homework on breeding was spot on.
Nice one👍🏻
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday's Eider Chase - Knockanore 40/1, 5 places - with PP but they restricted me to a few quid so had to take the rest at Ladbrokes (33/1). This is my main fancy in the race but I'm relying on my gut to an extent. He's a first-season novice whose breeding (Shantou x Oscar) suggests the London Marathon might not be far enough but who has only once raced beyond 2½ miles, last time, and could be an awful lot better than his mark at this trip. I think any rain will help him a lot too.
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Love it when ones like these work out. ;)
 
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