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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Jayhawk said:
First three in last May's Champion Hunter Chase at Stratford are big prices for the 4:40 Hunter Chase on Friday. What A Glance (1st) is 33/1, Lift Me Up (2nd) 25/1, and Fairly Famous (3rd) 20/1. The result shows that all three should see out the trip on goodish ground. Lift Me Up has fairly famous owners too ( Mr and Mrs Christian Horner ). Extra place offers would be a plus rather than just 1/5 the first 3.
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Maybe big prices but you couldn't get more different tracks than Cheltenham and Stratford? Stratford is a sharp flat track which tends to suit smaller types with a bit of speed whereas Cheltenham is the complete opposite. That said the winner has won here but got stuffed in his two points so far this season by ordinary horses. Out of the three, I'd opt for Fairly Famous who has two wins here and had won his two points easily this year so is in good form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, M Pipe - Nurse Susan 50/1, 6 pl - Hasn't run this season, Langer Dan colours, held G1 entries going into Cheltenham last season but missed the meeting. This has plot painted all over it and I want it onside just in case a gamble develops.
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" I haven't had her long enough to get her ready for the Mares' Hurdle, but she is a talented mare. Under normal circumstances, I would give her a massive chance, but I haven't had enough time with her. I think she will run well, but I think she will improve for the run." ( Dan Skelton Cheltenham Stable Tour, 21 February)
 
Idem pertemps hurdle 2.40 tomorrow 28/1
Caught my eye last time out at Musselburgh.
Had to weave between horses and finished placed without being given a hard time.
Has hopefully been prepped all season with this race in mind.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bumper - Shuttle Diplomacy 50/1, 4 places - the winner of last year's race got an RPR of 137. Shuttle Diplomacy is a second-season bumper horse and they tend to improve 10-20 when they go hurdling. If SD can improve 10lbs on his 126 RPR in his second season he could be placed and if he finds more than that he could win.
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3rd 66/1. Am impressed, and relieved it didn't finish 2nd as I didn't include it in my combination forecasts ( all Mullins).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bumper - Shuttle Diplomacy 50/1, 4 places - the winner of last year's race got an RPR of 137. Shuttle Diplomacy is a second-season bumper horse and they tend to improve 10-20 when they go hurdling. If SD can improve 10lbs on his 126 RPR in his second season he could be placed and if he finds more than that he could win.
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Third at 66/1 :cheers:
 
Desijo said:
Bob Olinger stayers 22/1 Great record at Cheltenham
Personal Ambition 20/1 4.40 tomorrow
Will hopefully be suited by likely fast pace.
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I really like both of these. I was there when Personal Ambition won the G2 hurdle at Kelso, and the 2nd turned out to be alright...
 
Sine nomine Kim muir tomorrow 25/1
She won the festival hunter chase here last season.
The trip and going look ideal especially if they go a good gallop which looks likely.
 
Friday, Mares' Chase - Shecouldbeanything, 25/1 - I’m going to take a punt on this one to live up to her name, at least as far as this race is concerned. She’s a first season novice who has been picking up valuable experience in modest company and might be ready to find those 10lbs I keep talking about, which would put her right in the mix.
 
Gold Cup - Ahoy Senor 66/1 - second top on my figures on his career best form, Banbridge might not stay, Royale Pagaille might prefer it softer and Lucinda Russell’s have been running really well this week. Corbetts Cross, Inothewayurthinkin and Monty’s Star, all second-season novices, could improve past a few of the others but I wouldn’t want to put money on it. (For info, I've also taken AS at 16/1 each-way without GDC.)
 
Kim Muir - Manothepeople can be hit and miss over fences, but his course and distance win in April 2024 was eye catching, with the serial Grimthorpe Chase winner Moroder in second, today's Cross Country winner Stumptown in third, and the Rowland Meyrick winner Some Scope back in fourth.

I've a feeling Fergal O Brien will have this fella spot on again tomorrow. Don't get me wrong, there's any number of horses with chances, and I wouldn't put anyone off anything really, but I feel this is a decent long shot anyway.
 
LUKE said:
Colonel Mustard 25/1 in the Coral Cup -I got 6places.
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Moment of absolute horror when I went to collect my cash and cashier said they were only paying 4 places.She then proceeded to show me a screenshot saying 4 places.
Luckily for me the results screen said 6 places.I think there is a lesson to be learned from that.
 
Friday, Martin Pipe - Stormbreaker 50/1, 6 places - This is the comment the time before last: Towards rear, mistake and dropped to last when jockey looked down to see if something was amiss 6th, towards rear when headway after 3 out, went second when ridden after last, kept on well (jockey said gelding either took a false step or struck into himself and lost his position after jumping 2nd hurdle past stands but was sound so he continued on) (op 7/1 tchd 17/2). Next time he was a single-figure price in McLaurey’s race but was never put in it so it’s interesting that he turns up here with one of the yard’s two top apprentices up. It’s too big a price not to back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gold Cup - Ahoy Senor 66/1 - second top on my figures on his career best form, Banbridge might not stay, Royale Pagaille might prefer it softer and Lucinda Russell’s have been running really well this week. Corbetts Cross, Inothewayurthinkin and Monty’s Star, all second-season novices, could improve past a few of the others but I wouldn’t want to put money on it. (For info, I've also taken AS at 16/1 each-way without GDC.)
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Can't get my head around this because if I'd been contemplating taking 16's rather than 66's I'd be thinking about, rather than a w/o bet, having a SFC instead (or am I not getting it - well, Leeds Utd have just won so I'm giddy with that at the mo)
 
2017diary said:
Can't get my head around this because if I'd been contemplating taking 16's rather than 66's I'd be thinking about, rather than a w/o bet, having a SFC instead (or am I not getting it - well, Leeds Utd have just won so I'm giddy with that at the mo)
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If it finishes third the bet is donald-ducked.

Forecasts seldom enter my head otherwise I'd have had it in the Coral Cup today!
 
I had to have a small bet on where it all began 66/1 Kim muir.
Making ground when blundered badly in the National trial.
But since then he got lapped next time and then another dismal run.
 
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