The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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fonz said:
It's going to be some effort for Holywell to win this off 153
Aintree matters more imo,where he'll be much more favoured at the weights.
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On the contrary.

He was fancied in some quarters for what turned out to be the strongest in depth Gold cup for many many years and is maybe 20lbs well in. Not unlike Unguided Missile who won in a canter under top weight a number of years ago. I'm happy with the 12/1 I got last week.

I'm also happy with the 33/1 I got for the National the day the weights came out. Anyone who beat that price has done terrifically well. I'd presume the bet was struck some time before the weights were announced.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Robot-like charge to the cliff-edge with Holywell, lads?

Good luck - I fear you will need it.
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It's a well handicapped 10/1 shot. There are always a few punted off the board in this race. He looks a likely contender. The result is a different matter.
 
edgt said:
The going Maruco, the going.
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That's part of the problem I've got Eddie. I see the same as you but I'm also seeing the Mon-Fri favourites getting turned over as we lead in which can't be good?

I potentially see two winners and four more to either win or place at big prices? And depending on the way it is it could either make or break my Festival. It's a case of deciding whether he's gone to the extreme and turned into Ferdy Murphy, or whether they're all wrong. It's the all wrong bit I need dissuading from?
 
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I don't doubt that he is a well-handicapped horse on his Gold Cup run. But his outings this season have been appalling - with the performances getting worse with each run. If they turn-out to be too bad to be true, then I'd say you are all well-on, but I personally have to have him down as a goner. It just looks too obvious a plot-job - even for Jonjo.
 
SlimChance said:
You really want the final decs at this stage. Tired of looking though Betfair to guess what's running.
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A Good Skin is the one I want to see declared. Five pound better off at the weights with Silvergrove, he's won here before, still relatively unexposed, should improve on the good ground, and been nibbled today on Betfair. He does have an entry in the Kim Muir as well
 
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SlimChance said:
This is the time of year when a lot of you will be putting together your Cheltenham portfolios. Some of you may overlook some good each way oppurtunities to get a small outlay of money in very good to add to you festival artillery. I'm going to use this thread to point these out as we go along. Please feel free to add your own.

Cheltenham Day 1

Just like last year we are looking at 4 short price Willie Mullins favourites. Bookmakers in general have only laid these horses and may be underestimating some animals further down the list. What I'm looking for here is a horse that is certain to run with strong place prospects.

Supreme Novice

A few judges on the forum and in the media think Altior has very strong form. It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to see him being second or third fav in an otherwise shallow betting market. 7/4 to place right now is worthy of being on the shortlist. Buveur Dair at 12/1 would also make it but its only available with Sportingodds.

Arkle

This is the second best e/w race at Cheltenham right now. I'd love to hear any strong opinions on horse to make the frame in this. I'll nominate Ar Mad at 16/1 because 4/1 to place is more likely to be around 5/2 if lining up. Its a great race for multiples.

Champion Hurdle

Easily the best e/w race of the festival for the third year in a row. Its hard to back anything e/w at this stage and NOT get your money in good. Last year I spent the months building up to the race getting Jexki 6/4 to place into as many multiples as possible. It was an expensive mistake but the BSP was 2.0 so I can't really complain.

Identify Thief at 7/2 to place could be as low as 9/4 at the off.

So an example.

A €10 e/w double with both placing:

Ar Mad 16/1
Identify Thief 14/1

Pays €225
Projected BSP place double pays €113.75

A €5 e/w treble with all three placing:

Altior 7/1
Ar Mad 16/1
Identify Thief 14/1

Pays €299.38
Projected BSP place double pays €119.43
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As Monday's decs approach let's not lose sight of the point of this thread. There is going to be terrific E/W multiples opportunities on Tursday for small stakes.
 
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Does anyone know anything about the WPM trained Turcagua entered in the bumper? Is he fit - will he even run?
Been off the track for 466 days, but was one I had in my tracker from a couple years back.
Last start was Dec 2014 where won a Bumpber beating Bonny Kate by 6L. (Who just won a few mins ago for the 3rd time on the trot).
Turcagua a 6 yr old now, and has obviously had some issues being off so long, but just wondered could there be value to be had at 25/1.
 
I'd be seriously wary of backing Holywell for Tuesday.

Sausalito Sunrise ran today so surely won't run again and the Betfair prices suggest neither Wonderful Charm or Ballynagour will line up here.

Which will result in a 10lb weight rise and leave Holywell running off top weight.
 
SlimChance said:
As Monday's decs approach let's not lose sight of the point of this thread. There is going to be terrific E/W multiples opportunities on Tursday for small stakes.
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Polly peachum will be an essential part of the E/W thievery on Tuesday
 
Double Handful said:
Does anyone know anything about the WPM trained Turcagua entered in the bumper? Is he fit - will he even run?
Been off the track for 466 days, but was one I had in my tracker from a couple years back.
Last start was Dec 2014 where won a Bumpber beating Bonny Kate by 6L. (Who just won a few mins ago for the 3rd time on the trot).
Turcagua a 6 yr old now, and has obviously had some issues being off so long, but just wondered could there be value to be had at 25/1.
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I've heard he's worked very well.

I had considered backing him but he's 36 on the machine so I can't seen the point in taking 25/1 when the race will be 4 places on the day and he's not the stable first string.
 
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Have Vaniteux and Tent in an e/w acca running on 1st day.
Clearly wasn't the plan with Tent coming straight here.
 
SlimChance said:
I've heard he's worked very well.

I had considered backing him but he's 36 on the machine so I can't seen the point in taking 25/1 when the race will be 4 places on the day and he's not the stable first string.
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Hopefully still get 25/1 on 4 places on the day. I'm intrigued to hear that he is reported to have worked very well.
Cheers Slim [emoji106]
 
Supreme Novice
w/o Min

Supasundae 10/1 e/w
1/4 odds 1-3 places with Bet365

Firms are not factoring in fully that Yorkhill will not run. I'd make him about 6/4 to place in this market and the win part is over priced too. Cracking bet.
 
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Double Handful said:
Yeah I hear ya. I'm currently looking at possibilities to double your Supasundae up with. What's the E/W thievery in the Arkle?
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Any horse that runs in the Arkle will be thievery. I just don't really like the Arkle unless you're putting it in a treble or bigger. In a double you want the win part reasonably live.

Anything in the Mares, Arkle or Champion Chase is ok.

If you want to take a flyer try God's Own in the CC 25/1 or Vicente 20/1 in the 4 miler. Vicente is one Desert Orchid likes an awful lot so 20/1 could look massive on Tuesday. I would also consider Holywell 9/1 4 places in the Ultima. He'll be much shorter than 9/4 to place.

Anything slightly overpriced is good in a multiple with something very overpriced like Supasundae w/o.
 
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