The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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EC1 said:
but if he has a hatfull of winners..i'll never mention trainer form again:lol:..and will quote this example as why it doesn't exist
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If you wanted to be really anal you'd pull the Betfair SP of every selection to get the 100% expected winners/places but I think you've proved the point.

I'm still topping on Holywell....
 
SlimChance said:
Tuesday's e/w card. Races in bold have advantageous place terms. The optimal bookmaker is Bet365 by a million miles. You would be expected to win money putting random selections in e/w Lucky 15s tomorrow at 10am in these races.

1.50 Front end e/w all bookmakers
2.10 Pass
2.50 5 places (Bet365, Skybet, Winner, Betfair Racebets) - 4 places e/w can be ok depending on the selection but 5 places epic
3.30 1/4 odds e/w can be put in multiples but not exactly value. WARNING - some firms are 1/5 odds
4.10 Front end e/w. WARNING - some firms are only 1/5 odds
4.50 Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places
5.30 All bookmakers 4 places. Place book will be o overbroke across oddschecker
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Update

1.30 PP 1/5 odds 1-4. Other books may have to follow this lead in the morning but at 1/4 odds.
2.10 No one cares. **** off 7 runner races
2.50 5 places Bet365, Ladbrokes, Skybet, BetVictor, Winner.com, Coral, Racebets
4.50 1/4 odds 4 places Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, Tote, BetVictor.

Bet336, Coral, Ladbrokes, Skybet and BetVictor should be your multiples bookmakers of choice tomorrow. Good times!
 
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The Champion Hurdle is currently being bet to 101% across oddschecker and we are very much in the phony war price period. I fully expect a 95% book betwen 10am and 11am tomorrow.
 
I don't think she'll drift much. She's the clear highest rated and represents the Mullins/Walsh/Ricci axis. The money is sure to keep coming.
 
I'm not sure if there is any correlation between the two. The machine dictates the SP.

The Mullins 4-Fold is currently 35/1 with William Hill. I doubt it will go much bigger than that, albeit it will be bigger during the intense price pushes at 10am. For the purpose of this thread I'm not sure we can let this go unbacked. You're basically at worse getting close too and more likely above the 100% line for all 4 winning. Its not poor value because of how bookmakers are forced to bet on day one.
 
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Lil Rockerfeller 33/1 ew in the Champion Hurdle.

Cracking little horse, this is obviously a huge step up but still worth a little each way nibble at that price.
 
Alan said:
Lil Rockerfeller 33/1 ew in the Champion Hurdle.

Cracking little horse, this is obviously a huge step up but still worth a little each way nibble at that price.
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You can have 33/1 on that or 35/1 on the 4 Mullins favs. One is good value, the other isn't.
 
SlimChance said:
I'm not sure if there is any correlation between the two. The machine dictates the SP.

The Mullins 4-Fold is currently 35/1 with William Hill. I doubt it will go much bigger than that, albeit it will be bigger during the intense price pushes at 10am. For the purpose of this thread I'm not sure we can let this go unbacked. You're basically at worse getting close too and more likely above the 100% line for all 4 winning. Its not poor value because of how bookmakers are forced to bet on day one.
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Is this a William Hill special somewhere Slim? I can't see it as a 'one click' special and when I add the 4 to a slip individually I'm only getting 28/1.
 
They've cut three of the horses the miserable fucks. Fear not it will be 35/1 for all you can eat tomorrow with most bookmakers.
 
Double Handful said:
Is this a William Hill special somewhere Slim? I can't see it as a 'one click' special and when I add the 4 to a slip individually I'm only getting 28/1.
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they've just shortened it up for now. betfred/totesport (yuck) now best price at 30s

wait till 9-10am tomorrow if you fancy it
 
Cheers Lads. It's not so much I fancy it, I'd just be sick if I didn't have a piece of the action if it came up. More so to throw a few quid at it, just in case.
 
Two of the four look like penalty kicks so it's not a bad price for a Min/Annie Power double.
 
Cheltenham 2.50 - The work of a man who just knows. I asked him his best bet for tomorrow:

Doing Fine.

I think Doing Fine each way at 40/1 was massive hes only 25/1 now but watch a replay of last years NH Chase and he either didn't stay or choked, he's best fresh and wore no tongue tie last time so if he hasn't had a wind op i will walk to Cheltenham, his dam stayed longer than the mother-in-law at christmas, by Presenting love ground and most of all stable back amongst the winners
 
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David Mullins might be the man for speculative each way multis tomorrow-I think Sempre Medici will be placed in the Champion Hurdle.
 
SlimChance said:
You can have 33/1 on that or 35/1 on the 4 Mullins favs. One is good value, the other isn't.
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I wouldn't have 20 thai Baht on either of those. Little Rockerfellar will be tailed off after 4 hurdles and the races are way too competitive and prices too short, bar Douvan, on the others
 
Horse that might run above what his price suggests is Hargam on that 7 length 3rd to Faugheen but the fact MTOY worked all over him with a stone more on his back is a worry but he's better than the 40/1 he was the other day
 
On Tour runs in the last and is said to be back to his best . 25/1 is huge especially if the ground suits him.

He wouldn't want it too soft but if they get a shower or two and it takes the tackiness out of the ground it would be just about perfect for him
 
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