The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Marble said:
I didn't know this about the likely weights, thanks Wilson.
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I wouldn't let it influence my thinking. I reckon too much is made of having to carry top weight. If it's well enough handicapped it should not be an issue. There would be other reasons for a defeat.

I think you get better than the true odds when you back a top weight precisely due to a psychological barrier in the mind of the average punter and pundit. Horses end up with top weight for a reason. Venetia Williams, for example, remarked just the other week that one of her horses would, she felt, be better carrying top weight in a lower grade handicap than a low weight in a better one.

Regardless of how good a race the Ultima is, it will be a long way weaker than last year's Gold Cup in which Holywell would have carried roughly the same weight. There's a chance he won't be off the bit to win on Tuesday but I haven't done all the weights and won't until tomorrow afternoon but I can't recall the last time I had one in the Ultima with an OR about 20lbs lower than his true ability [apart from Unguided Missile].

Unguided Missile had dropped a similar amount the year he eased home under top weight. He had been only 16/1 for the previous year's Gold Cup but had fallen in Mr Mulligan's race. Before the Gold Cup he had lost out in a photo to Jodami in receipt of 4lbs (169 to 165, the two top weights) in the Peter Marsh. After the GC he won the big handicap at the National meeting off 165 under 12-0 and giving Cab On Target 27lbs. He started season 97-98 on 168 but was beaten a total of over 100 lengths in five runs, in one of which he fell, before taking in this race at the festival where he was off just 149. The 11-10 he carried was meaningless although fast ground would have helped. The highest RPR he ever held was 169. Holywell got 170 last season (I had him higher) and there's a case for rating him 174 in the Gold Cup so for him to get into this off 153 puts him in the same ball park as Unguided Missile in terms of pure handicapping.

This is Holywell's course and time of year and he's a stronger stayer than Unguided Missile but maybe not a better jumper.

I will be gobsmacked if I do come across anything to touch Holywell at the weights and if there is I'll be sure of backing it too!
 
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SlimChance said:
Any horse that runs in the Arkle will be thievery. I just don't really like the Arkle unless you're putting it in a treble or bigger. In a double you want the win part reasonably live.

Anything in the Mares, Arkle or Champion Chase is ok.

If you want to take a flyer try God's Own in the CC 25/1 or Vicente 20/1 in the 4 miler. Vicente is one Desert Orchid likes an awful lot so 20/1 could look massive on Tuesday. I would also consider Holywell 9/1 4 places in the Ultima. He'll be much shorter than 9/4 to place.

Anything slightly overpriced is good in a multiple with something very overpriced like Supasundae w/o.
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I'm already on God's Own in an E/W multiple - he gave UDS a brief scare in the Arkle last year and he's one who is definitely over priced imo. I'll have a look at the others suggested now. Cheers
 
I don't usually do these but, after all the advice it would be churlish not to give it a go. I've gone with Supasundae (w/o Min), Polly Peachum, Sizing John and Nichols Canyon. 4xew trebles + ew fourfold.
 
Knowing that the Arkle will almost certainly cut up and be less than 8 runners I've taken advantage of the 3 places and done this EW multiple.

Buveur Dair
Sizing John
Polly Peachum
Noble Endeavour.
 
I don't dispute the gist of your argument, DO.
Top weights are top weights for a reason. He's got his chance.
But I can't visualise him doing it. I was not keen before Wilson's information, and I'm less keen now.
 
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would not stableform come into the holywell debate

we all know that Jonjo targets the meet..and there is a bit of a misconception that he has hardly any winners in Jan + Feb then fires on all cylinders in March.

His record last year in Jan Feb doesn't really support that thinking ..yes there has been a lull below average strike some years..

Overall Jonjo is a 15% strike rate

2013 Jan+Feb = 16/158 = 10%
2014 Jan+Feb = 12/107 = 11%
2015 Jan+Feb = 28/125 = 22%

2016 Jan+Feb = 4/69 = 6%

and he has had another 13 losers this month including 4 fav's..2 shorties..which makes his record since xmas..4/82..a 5% strike rate

now..i have seen many people say..oh the stable is out of form..must be summat amiss ..and thats with a trainer with better figures than that. In fact Nichols wasn't any where near that a while ago and everyone spotted it..no one has mentioned Jonjo's jan+feb

yes..Holywell is well in..but he was well in on last run when pulled up after running like he was 10 levels above his class level

where is there any evidence that he will suddenly turn the corner..even for Jonjo..this is one low lull..he has never hit the festival with such a poor Jan+Feb before
 
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It's a proper concern EC that's for sure. I couldn't touch Holywell with that weight regardless of the dip in his OR but I'm on Minella Rocco fairly large so will have to wait and see.
 
i agree with DO..the weight for me isn't an issue if well handicapped..in fact being a well in top weight against inferiors is better than being a well in hoss against superiors..well in top weights are way superior for me every time..they meet lesser hosses than their ability level..being well in off 10.5 is fine..but you are still running against better horses...when you are well in top weight..you aren't
 
EC1 said:
would not stableform come into the holywell debate

we all know that Jonjo targets the meet..and there is a bit of a misconception that he has hardly any winners in Jan + Feb then fires on all cylinders in March.

His record last year in Jan Feb doesn't really support that thinking ..yes there has been a lull below average strike some years..

Overall Jonjo is a 15% strike rate

2013 Jan+Feb = 16/158 = 10%
2014 Jan+Feb = 12/107 = 11%
2015 Jan+Feb = 28/125 = 22%

2016 Jan+Feb = 4/69 = 6%

and he has had another 13 losers this month including 4 fav's..2 shorties..which makes his record since xmas..4/82..a 5% strike rate

now..i have seen many people say..oh the stable is out of form..must be summat amiss ..and thats with a trainer with better figures than that. In fact Nichols wasn't any where near that a while ago and everyone spotted it..no one has mentioned Jonjo's jan+feb

yes..Holywell is well in..but he was well in on last run when pulled up after running like he was 10 levels above his class level

where is there any evidence that he will suddenly turn the corner..even for Jonjo..this is one low lull..he has never hit the festival with such a poor Jan+Feb before
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I would need to see expected winners to put any weight in this. He has to return to the mean at some stage so is January form really relative when acessing horses year long targets?
 
I'd point people in the direction of Creon, beaten 122 lengths plus a pulled up in 5 starts that year prior to winning at 50/1 and Kadoun, beaten 137 lengths in 5 starts prior to winning at 50/1. I'm not sure that stable form has that much to do with things.
 
The same owner's Keepatem, was the one that punters backed off the Boards, the day Creon went in. Easy enough to latch onto the wrong plot-horse in a competitive Festival handicap.
 
simmo said:
I'd point people in the direction of Creon, beaten 122 lengths plus a pulled up in 5 starts that year prior to winning at 50/1 and Kadoun, beaten 137 lengths in 5 starts prior to winning at 50/1. I'm not sure that stable form has that much to do with things.
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what were his strike rates in Jan+feb for those years? Holywell isn't 50/1 though.

i've no issue with how a stable does usually unless its performing very differently..and i feel that something is different from how the stable is normally performing at this time of year compared to this jan + feb

my point also was though ..if it were Nichols it would be talked about ..it seems to have slipped under the radar with Jonjo. We know he has quiet spells..but there are quiet spells and quiet spells

just thought i'd mention it anyway..when i said he had only had 4 winners last night Grass was amazed..i'm sure others hadn't spotted it either

its just info to either heed or ignore..it needed highlighting though imo
 
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Tuesday's e/w card. Races in bold have advantageous place terms. The optimal bookmaker is Bet365 by a million miles. You would be expected to win money putting random selections in e/w Lucky 15s tomorrow at 10am in these races.

1.50 Front end e/w all bookmakers
2.10 Pass
2.50 5 places (Bet365, Skybet, Winner, Betfair Racebets) - 4 places e/w can be ok depending on the selection but 5 places epic
3.30 1/4 odds e/w can be put in multiples but not exactly value. WARNING - some firms are 1/5 odds
4.10 Front end e/w. WARNING - some firms are only 1/5 odds
4.50 Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places
5.30 All bookmakers 4 places. Place book will be o overbroke across oddschecker
 
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EC1 said:
what were his strike rates in Jan+feb for those years? Holywell isn't 50/1 though.

i've no issue with how a stable does usually unless its performing very differently..and i feel that something is different from how the stable is normally performing at this time of year compared to this jan + feb

my point also was though ..if it were Nichols it would be talked about ..it seems to have slipped under the radar with Jonjo. We know he has quiet spells..but there are quiet spells and quiet spells

just thought i'd mention it anyway..when i said he had only had 4 winners last night Grass was amazed..i'm sure others hadn't spotted it either

its just info to either heed or ignore..it needed highlighting though imo
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by contrast the form of Neil Mulholland's fancied runners, i.e those that have gone off single figures or less in March reads 51P2211111 with the last 5 all winning. He's got a few decent chances tomorrow with Carole's Destrier (post wind op), The Young Master and Southfield Royale and all at e/w prices.
 
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SlimChance said:
Tuesday's e/w card. Races in bold have advantageous place terms. The optimal bookmaker is Bet365 by a million miles. You would be expected to win money putting random selections in e/w Lucky 15s tomorrow at 10am in these races.

1.50 Front end e/w all bookmakers
2.10 Pass
2.50 5 places (Bet365, Skybet, Winner, Betfair Racebets) - 4 places e/w can be ok depending on the selection but 5 places epic
3.30 1/4 odds e/w can be put in multiples but not exactly value. WARNING - some firms are 1/5 odds
4.10 Front end e/w. WARNING - some firms are only 1/5 odds
4.50 Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places
5.30 All bookmakers 4 places. Place book will be o overbroke across oddschecker
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quite a few gone 4 places on the 4:50 now and betfair sb 5 places on the 5:30
 
SlimChance said:
I would need to see expected winners to put any weight in this. He has to return to the mean at some stage so is January form really relative when acessing horses year long targets?
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since 13 feb

13/2
12/1
11/10
4/1
10/1
25/1
12/1
20/1
7/2
66/1
25/1
16/1
8/11
10/1
3/1
33/1
10/1
20/1
11/1
5/2
5/2
50/1
15/2
9/1
2/1
100/1
6/1
11/8
3/1
4/1
25/1
4/1
4/1
12/1
5/2
10/1
8/1
5/1
20/1
25/1
33/1

the expected placings from runners at those odds = 19

actual placings achieved = 9
 
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