The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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As a courtesy to Slim, going on from an earlier conversation:
now that the entries are out for the Mares Novice Hurdle, I'm reasonably happy with the ew prospects of Myska. The rate of improvement of novices makes any proper form cross reference very iffy but there's grounds to say that Limini has only beaten a 136 hurdler in receipt of weight and, while the Doncaster form looks impressive, Smart Talk may have profited from the others running below par and had already failed to win a handicap off 127 which makes the current rating of 149 look odd. Also, Sunshine Corner lost by 8l to Smart Talk but by 20l to Jessber's Dream (comfortably beaten by Myska).
Myska obviously has to come back from the last run. She seems to be back to her best but we never got to the bottom of what happened. What you can say is that Jessber's Dream is now on 140 but they don't fancy a replay at Cheltenham. Henderson's trio don't appear to have cracked 130.
Ruby will ride Limini but she's flat bred and we'll hope to run her down up the hill. Smart Talk is very much respected.
 
The Bookies have the top owner of the festival priced close enough between
Rich Richi,JP,Gigginstown.
Top prices Richi 13/8 PP,JP 2/1 365 ,,Gigginstown 5/2

But I think the 13/8 in PP is a decent bet for Rich Richi.

Min,Douvan,Annie Power,VVM,Limini,Vatour/Djakanum is a nice list of decent chances .

He's not going to have as many runners in the handicaps as JP but he he could have a decent lead built up by tuesday evening.
 
He'd be very unlucky not to get in. He got into the Schweppes comfortably off the mark and would easily have made the cut for the last three County Hurdles, the bottom weights for which were off 134, 132 and 132.
 
I'll be sticking him in a Montjeu 'not getting up the hill' double with the Kremin Kid in the Triumph.

Fly boy, where are you now?
 
I know Chef posted it a while back but a fast run 2 miles could be ideal for Camping Ground and with so many doubts about the fancied runners 25/1 could be great e/w value for one who's posted some serious efforts since coming over with the only disappointment when he blatantly didn't stay having been too keen over 3m LTO.

Was travelling very well when UR over fences in the Peterbrough too.

In truth he's been campaigned terribly but this could be the making of him and I don't buy that he absolutely needs soft ground.
 
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Anyone having a bet now on the Champion hurdle is on drugs. It will be bet to 95% 1/4 odds 1-3 on the day.
 
edgt said:
Attending a calving late last night the farmer told me his son met WPM in a Dublin pub during the week and asked him for his best value ew chance.
"Thomas Hobson " he replied .
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I'm tempted with him but it'd one to watch through your fingers. He's an absolute liability over his hurdles.
 
I'm waiting to see what race JER'S GIRL tackles, with a personal preference for the Fred Winter, because she's taken to hurdling like a pig in *hit this season. I like her genuine heart-on-sleeve front running efforts. She can improve again when stepped up in class and I believe she has the scope for significant further improvement. The romp at Aintree was good with the second horse winning handsomely afterwards. I reckon she had an off day last time at Leopardstown, and am hoping she can come back to her best next week.
 
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Marble said:
I'm waiting to see what race JER'S GIRL tackles, with a personal preference for the Fred Winter, because she's taken to hurdling like a pig in *hit this season. I like her genuine heart-on-sleeve front running efforts. She can improve again when stepped up in class and I believe she has the scope for significant further improvement. The romp at Aintree was good with the second horse winning handsomely afterwards. I reckon she had an off day last time at Leopardstown, and am hoping she can come back to her best next week.
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Needs soft ground.
 
SlimChance said:
Anyone having a bet now on the Champion hurdle is on drugs. It will be bet to 95% 1/4 odds 1-3 on the day.
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You're spot on with the main contenders, i.e. top 5 in the market but there's scope for an outsider to shorten considerably before Tuesday and we're still at a point where NRNB seriously favors the punter. The 25s have gone since last night so I've taken the Hills 25s best price promotion even though they're the only bookie offering 1/5 odds a place because the enhanced price more than offsets the place terms.

Tom Segal was really taken with his Relkeel performance and I remember reading in the following weeks RP how he'd be interested if he were to run in this. Given such it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him tip this next week and his price could come into c. 14/1.

If they elect not to run him then no worries as it's NRNB.

I think Annie wins but Walford's horse has real e/w appeal and won't be that big on the day if he lines up as he seems to be most pundits "dark horse" for the race.
 
wilsonl said:
I've taken the Hills 25s best price promotion even though they're the only bookie offering 1/5 odds a place because the enhanced price more than offsets the place terms.
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1/5 ods makes the bets expected value very thin if not non existent. If Segal tips it so be it but I'd rather see if I could get 25/1 1/4 odds on the day than accept the 1/5 odds. Some firms will push horses based on liability in the morning and I'll be shocked if you can't get 25/1 on a horse no one will really want to be on.
 
The Black Book arrived yesterday, and after having a nose through it last night, I put the following each-way 'Haymaker' Yankee together for the Tuesday (Hills):

Supreme: North Hill Harvey (40/1)
Ultima: Silvergrove (16/1)
NH Chase: Local Show (16/1)
Novice Chap Chase: Orbasa (25/1)
 
wilsonl said:
Don't see it myself but we'll find out soon enough and I'll hold my hands up if I got it wrong.
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Hills have already guaranteed to be best price every horse on every channel at Cheltenham. When this sort of madness is going to happen you need a very big edge to pull the trigger now. 25/1 1/5 odds is not that edge.
 
but if they go 20/1 1/4 on the day I'm worse off as they're only matching or bettering best prices across 6 other bookies and look at most other races right now, they're matching it whereas here they're bettering it.

I'd say there's more chance of him being a NR than being as big as 25s again but like I said, only time will tell and I've had a score e/w so it aint going to make a fat lot of difference to my week either way.
 
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