The Champion Hurdle 2010

I doubt any hurdler will come over here before Punchestown. Having said that its a very tough year to find a soft hurdle race for Cheltenham hopefull either side of the Irish Sea. The form should have very few holes in March unless Dunguib gets involved.
 
SteveM said:
The Relkeel (back at Ascot). Hugely impressive if Zaynar can beat Karabak like that when he supposedly nedeed the run. Trainer states he is unlikely to go for the World Hurdle.
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Just to clarify, the Relkeel Hurdle is over 2m 4 1/2f at Cheltenham on the 12th December.
 
Just because Zaynar has proven he is (very) effective at 2 and a half shouldn't in any way detract from worries about his pace for the Champion - it certainly didn't hold Hardy Eustace back (or Brave Inca for that matter). That extra bit of stamina is required for the Champion Hurdle due to both the course and the way the race is usually run.
 
Fighting Fifth....
Al Eile (IRE) 9.g
Binocular (FR) 5.g
Blue Bajan (IRE) 7.g
Cape Tribulation 5.g
Go Native (IRE) 6.g
Muirhead (IRE) 6.g
Solwhit (FR) 5.g
Sublimity (FR) 9.g
Won In The Dark (IRE) 5.g
​
 
Galileo said:
Fighting Fifth....
Al Eile (IRE) 9.g
Binocular (FR) 5.g
Blue Bajan (IRE) 7.g
Cape Tribulation 5.g
Go Native (IRE) 6.g
Muirhead (IRE) 6.g
Solwhit (FR) 5.g
Sublimity (FR) 9.g
Won In The Dark (IRE) 5.g​
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I'm getting very excited about Binocular's return. If Zaynar needed the run and Binocular is further forward than either Zaynar or Punjabi, we might expect a bit of a show.
 
davidjohnson said:
Surely no-one still actually believes that Zaynar needed the run, irrespective of what the trainer said.
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Clearly not. But if he's saying that one needs the run (and he wins as he likes) and the other is further forward, surely you can appreciate the inference that Binocular ought to show up very well at the weekend.
 
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Fighting Fifth Hurdle - 10-11 Binocular 7-4 Sowlhit 10-1 Sublimity 16-1 Bar
 
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beardo said:
16/1 with wbx for binny to win the triple crown. Ive had a little tickle seems very big as the first two races are on tracks that should really suit
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On the basis of the two prices we know, if you believe he will be aimed at the Christmas hurdle which is not certain after last year light campaign, the 16-1 is worth a bet. I would not want to lay over 10-1 myself.
 
I was thinking the same.

I think he may well win Saturday, which would make him near unopposable in the xmas hurdle as you can't imagine a race that would suit him better. Better still, he will avoid both stablemates until Cheltenham.

Is it with WBX the exchange, but still a fixed price bet? I've never even logged onto their site.
 
Flagship uberalles said:
Just because Zaynar has proven he is (very) effective at 2 and a half shouldn't in any way detract from worries about his pace for the Champion - it certainly didn't hold Hardy Eustace back (or Brave Inca for that matter). That extra bit of stamina is required for the Champion Hurdle due to both the course and the way the race is usually run.
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It wasn't just a case of just being effective over two and a half miles. He outstayed, rather than outsped, a horse that almost certainly wants two and a half. To me he looked like a horse that would comfortably stay, and be even more effective, over further.

Obviously being that good over two and a half he's going to be pretty useful at two miles as well, maybe even good enough. It can't be his best distance though.
 
SteveM said:
Clearly not. But if he's saying that one needs the run (and he wins as he likes) and the other is further forward, surely you can appreciate the inference that Binocular ought to show up very well at the weekend.
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Yes but it doesn't necessarily mean Binocular is better. He could be harder trained but still not improve on his existing form. He might not even be better than Zaynar... ;)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes but it doesn't necessarily mean Binocular is better. He could be harder trained but still not improve on his existing form. He might not even be better than Zaynar... ;)
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...I don't quite get you here. He's already better than these, if he's further forward too that's fine with me.

Zaynar does look like he'll be very good I agree.
 
If Binocular can beat Solwhit in the Fighting Fifth he will very much set the standard in the division. Its a cracking contest but as I said earlier the division is so good no horse will not be tested before March. The form will be stacked up.
 
SteveM said:
...I don't quite get you here. He's already better than these, if he's further forward too that's fine with me.

Zaynar does look like he'll be very good I agree.
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I don't equate being 'forward' with being better. I equate it with its stage of training. To me, further 'forward' means closer to being fully fit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't equate being 'forward' with being better. I equate it with its stage of training. To me, further 'forward' means closer to being fully fit.
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Obviously. But we already know he's currently just about the best in his division (until anything else overtakes him). If he is further forward as well that can only be a good thing.
 
We know he's not the champion. We know he's been beaten on his two runs at the course. We've been told he's fitter (further forward) than Zaynar. It doesn't mean he's better than Zaynar. Or Punjabi. And they're in the same yard. He might only be the third best they have.

And his racecourse form is, on my figures, now some way behind Celestial Halo's.

I'd rather wait and take a shorter price once he's proved himself to have improved rather than gambling on it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
We know he's not the champion. We know he's been beaten on his two runs at the course. We've been told he's fitter (further forward) than Zaynar. It doesn't mean he's better than Zaynar. Or Punjabi. And they're in the same yard. He might only be the third best they have.

And his racecourse form is, on my figures, now some way behind Celestial Halo's.

I'd rather wait and take a shorter price once he's proved himself to have improved rather than gambling on it.
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This is splitting hairs. He all but won the Champion. I've taken all the 4s I can for the Champion this time (gone now). Whether he is still the best come March we'll have to see.

The point is the trainer is indicating that right now he is ahead of both Zaynar and Punjabi. What I'm suggesting is that this will make him extraordinarily difficult to beat at the weekend.
 
You know how much I respect your judgment, Steve. It's obvious you have a far higher opinion of the horse than any conclusion I can reach from the form book. I could never take 4/1 at this stage of the season on what I'm reading. He may well eventually prove to be much better than his stablemates but I'd rather take 2/1 once he's done that.

My reading tells me Celestial Halo is already some way better than when alongside Binocular in last season's Champion. To have got 10/1 (and subsequently 8s after Hurricane run's defeat) in those circumstances struck me as being amazing value.

If my reading proves right it will have been amazing value. If my reading is misguided I'm donald-ducked but that's what punting is all about.
 
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