The Champion Hurdle 2010

Solwhit looks bombproof - very difficult to seeing him out of the first three . The question for me is if the ground is good whether there might be one with a bit more pace such as Go Native .

CH surely way below form today though he was being niggled along from a long way out. I would not rule out Punjabi he is quite capable of coming on a great deal consider his Kingwell run last year.

Odd ride for Sublimity to try and put it up to a stayer on ground too soft for him.
 
Solwhit is very likeable but it's the form in behind that leaves me unconvinced that he's the winner of the big one. Donnas Palm, although improving fast, was still a 140-something horse on ORs today and Sublimity maybe had too much use made of him today.

In the December Hurdle - and how on earth can the Irish officials justify an OR of 140 for him going into that race when he was 165 earlier in the season - he only gave Jumbo Rio (OR 146) an 8lbs beating. He beat Sublimity 2L and increased that to five or six today but the latter was very prominently ridden today.

Before that he was only third in the highly unsatisfactory Fighting Fifth, a race I'd discount completely.

Before that he was only 3lbs better than the 158-rated Muirhead, albeit with something in hand.

That was only marginally better than the 10lbs beating he gave to the 150-rated United at Aintree.

Given that I was low with the Champion Hurdle figures last year, it would put him in the mix. Maybe if my attention hadn't been so rapt by Celestial Halo at Wincanton I'd have been touting Solwhit as a possible!
 
Why haven't you included his run at Punchestown last year or his Aintree run, DO? His run at Punchestown is far superior in form terms to anything he has achieved this year.
 
trackside528 said:
Why haven't you included his run at Punchestown last year or his Aintree run, DO? His run at Punchestown is far superior in form terms to anything he has achieved this year.
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The United form is Aintree.

The Punchestown form has a question mark for me but I should have included it. Beating Punjabi (163 in the Champion) looks good but in behind you've got Quevega (UK/OR 155 over further) only 8lbs behind and Sizing Europe (OR 157) getting a 3lbs beating. I'd argue Cheltenham maybe took the edge off Punjabi. Best case scenario would put Solwhit on 163 (via Punjabi and Quevega). Until today, there was no real evidence he was any better than that.
 
I'm surprised that you would mention Muirhead as a negative of sorts, given that Muirhead finished so close to the principles in the Champion Hurdle last year. Beaten five lengths.

I also think you might just be underestimating Donnas Palm, a horse who ran Hurricane Fly very close as a novice before going wayward for the rest of that season.

For what it's worth, RTE reported that Nicholls felt that Celestial Halo didn't handle the ground and needs better conditions. No suggestion that they felt the horse wasn't right, or anything of that sort. Maybe something will come to light in the morning, but I'd be worried by the lack of immediate excuse - bar ground - if I was a CH backer.

That said, I'm sure he'll be prominent as they turn towards the last. I just think Go Native will be on the bridle in close proximity, and Solwhit will be in behind ready to fly up the hill. The question mark regards Solwhit is whether he has the toe on quicker ground to really keep up with them during the middle of the race if they tear off like they did last year - something that would seem likely in a big field.
 
I agree about Solwhit

the conditions of a big field will suit but some doubts if the ground is gs at least.
 
Bobbyjo said:
I'm surprised that you would mention Muirhead as a negative of sorts, given that Muirhead finished so close to the principles in the Champion Hurdle last year. Beaten five lengths.

I also think you might just be underestimating Donnas Palm, a horse who ran Hurricane Fly very close as a novice before going wayward for the rest of that season.
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Yes, but I'm not interested in betting ante-post anything I don't think can hit 168 or more as that's my bench mark for a genuine champion. I reckoned the main 'contenders' are all between 160-164 but CH's Wincanton run hit me as a possible 167 plus whatever improvement Nicholls [was adamant he] could get it to make, so I thought the prices I took were real value. It looks like I'm wrong but it aint over till the fat lady sings.
 
I asked the question earlier if the track would suit CH. That inside track in Leopardstown bears very little resemblance to Cheltenham. CH can no either go to Cheltenham and run a blinder or do an Osana. I would be tempted to leave him alone.

On Solwhit, could you aregue he beat a couple of one paced horses today in CH and Sublimity. To my eye, it took him a long time to pass Sublimity. I just wonder will he get done for toe at Cheltenham from the second last to the last and be staying on best of all on the run it. He has a profile of a horse that shoudl do well in Cheltenham.....stays further and goes away at the finish but he looked woefully once paced at Newcastle, albeit in a sprint. I just wonder about him.

Which still leaves me with the question of whether any of the outsiders might pop up, like last year.
 
davidjohnson said:
Would you have told us your bet had it lost? The shameless aftertiming on this board really is pathetic at times.
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This isn't the betfair forum -if a long term regular who expresses his opinion regularly mentions a bet after the event I don't see the problem.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He was beat turning for home. That's what makes me think he might have needed it.

I've stated all along I went low with my ratings for last year's Champion Hurdle, which now appears well justified. It was the Wincanton form that caught my attention, and that's been franked over and over by others.
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Franked over and over except by the one horse you have backed.

Celestial Halo nowhere near good enough this year, and I include his Wincanton run in this.

Taking early season handicap form at face value where many will need a run is the quickest way to the poor house.
 
Grasshopper said:
Got to love the way Solwhit picks up and runs all the way to the line.

Ladbrokes insane to be a standout 6/1 at present.
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I would agree with that (have revised my opinion on him)

Apart from an odd race at Newcastle, he has beaten all before him and well. When you consider Zaynar is shorter and has beaten absolutely nothing, and hasn't even run over 2 miles yet, it really is a peculiar market.

Medermit each way at 16s looks much too big.
 
Cantoris said:
Should we take that as an indicator that he really fancies Go Native?
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Can you imagine how it would go down with Go Native's owners, on the hunt of a £1m bonus, if their horse finished second in the race to a stablemate?
 
Can you imagine how it would go down with Donna's Palms owners if, for some reason, a horse they had beaten earlier in the season - such as Sublimity - won the Champion Hurdle.

I really don't think that sort of thought would be in Meade's mind. Clearly, his logic is that Donnas Palm isnt quite good enough for the Champion, or ready at this stage, and it makes sense to keep him fresh for a two and a half mile race that should suit him trip wise.
 
Grey said:
Can you imagine how it would go down with Go Native's owners, on the hunt of a £1m bonus, if their horse finished second in the race to a stablemate?
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It shouldn't be of concern to Meade/connections of Go Native, once the best option is chosen for Donna's Palm. The best option i see, considering he hasn't been overraced, is to go to Cheltenham, and then Aintree after that.
 
Some people have been quieter than you'd expect (or not actually!) regarding Meade on this considering their forthright views on Henderson keeping his horses apart. At least he'll let them take each other on on the big day.
 
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