The Champion Hurdle 2010

davidjohnson said:
Some people have been quieter than you'd expect (or not actually!) regarding Meade on this considering their forthright views on Henderson keeping his horses apart. At least he'll let them take each other on on the big day.
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If you mean me, this thread was the first i heard of Donna's Palm not going to Cheltenham.

Anyway, I didn't realise you wanted people to state the obvious as I thought it was well established that Meade is a prat!? :D
 
Sheikh said:
Watched it again, CH looked decidedly half baked.
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Nicholls didnt seem to think so though.

I think there's been some negative comments from Stewart and he seemed to have readily accepted before this race he wasn't up to winning a Champion Hurdle, and will go jumping next season.
 
rorydelargy said:
What did people make of the ground? No worse than yielding to soft as far as I could see, based on race times.
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The ground was very testing, Rory. I suspect D J Casey on An Cathaoir Mor was resigned to fourth place until he realised those in front had run out of gas and were going nowhere.

In the next race, Ruby set the pace until entering the straight. Others went on at that point but again got stuck in the ground and Ruby was able to peg them back. To me, that was the ride of the day because he learned from his experience on Sportsline in the previous race and put it to use.

Ruby again tried to set the pace on Celestial Halo in the big one and on Quel Esprit in the 2m4f novice hurdle. He got swamped by better horses on the day on CH and he was outkicked from the last on QE after setting a decent gallop both times.
 
I prefer to trust my eyes but if we take it that CH ran to his best can we also take it that the winner of the Champion Hurdle won't be coming out of the first three home in last years . Or has CH regressed which would be unusal for a hurdler from 5 to 6. ?
 
Sheikh said:
I prefer to trust my eyes but if we take it that CH ran to his best can we also take it that the winner of the Champion Hurdle won't be coming out of the first three home in last years . Or has CH regressed which would be unusal for a hurdler from 5 to 6. ?
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For me, there is virtually a zero chance that Celestial Halo ran to the same form at Leopardstown as he did when a narrowly-beaten second in the Champion Hurdle. You'd have to believe that 10-y-o Sublimity is better than ever, on ground which some people say he doesn't go on, with tactics adopted that possibly didn't play to his strengths. I'd agree with Hamm, he's going backwards for some reason, he looked in trouble after a couple of flights the other day.
 
No I don't think he ran to anything like his chelt form either. The reason for that is what I am trying to figure. He was struggling a long way out but stayed on well enough. I'm not convinced he has regressed although it does certainly look that way.
 
I read that Paul Nicholls was "puzzled" by CH's poor run and it was reported that Walsh felt he hated the ground. There's a crumb or two of comfort in there. Nicholls is the type who would come out and say 'that's as good as he is' if that's what he thought.

When was the last time the big one was run in genuinely testing ground?
 
Noel Meade said it before the Irish Champion that Donna's Palm was likely to miss Cheltenham as he did not think the place would suit him.
 
Some people have been quieter than you'd expect (or not actually!) regarding Meade on this considering their forthright views on Henderson keeping his horses apart. At least he'll let them take each other on on the big day.
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Utter nonsense - WUMMING at it's best. You'd imagine Meade will run a few runners on the big day, like he generally has in the Champion in recent years. He's just obviously realised that it can be safe enough to keep one aside for Aintree, after all, the race has been mopped up in recent years by horses who've been doing the same,

He even ran Go Native and Donnas Palm against each other as novices. And, unlike Henderson, his horses have actually been winning races this year rather than performing below par - save for Zaynar, who hasn't run in a race of much consequence yet. Henderson went to such great lengths to avoid other horses with Punjabi, that he took him to a track and race that didn't suit and got him beaten. How much money has Meade's campaigning won for his connections?

[Insert comment about Meade's Cheltenham record here]
 
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I have no problem with a trainer trying to avoid his horses clashing - but when he starts running horses in races that do not suit or are not ready for then that is when I have an issue.
 
Was there much of a difference in the going over the Saturday/Sunday at Leopardstown?

The times of the 2m hurdles races don't tell us much about the big race.

Sat, MCR Hurdle 3m 56.7s
Sun Mdn Hurdle 3m 59.2
Sun Ch Hurdle 3m 58.0

Seems like Celestial Halo set a moderate pace, which the principals followed. Nothing came from the back.

Curiouser and curiouser, at least as far as Celestial Halo is concerned. Presumably Ruby thought he could set his own pace and leave them for dead the way he did at Wincanton but he was at the horse before the turn.
 
davidjohnson said:
You'd have to believe that 10-y-o Sublimity is better than ever, on ground which some people say he doesn't go on, with tactics adopted that possibly didn't play to his strengths.
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Interesting point about Sublimity - I don't think he's all that far off his best based on his last two runs.

Took 25's about him EW with Ladbrokes on Sunday evening - will improve for better ground (although the ground last Sunday was not heavy) and the faster they go the better in the Champion as far as he's concerned. I take the point about him possibly being ungeniune (not convinced either way myself) and he may not be good enough even at his best, but I certainly could see him running into a place.

I'm also increasingly coming round to the idea that the perception of Binocular as a 'speed' horse is nonsense. Wasn't helped by a mistake three out at Kempton and just looked to be outpaced by two horses that arguably had their optimum conditions. His Bula run last year came at a relatively stiff track off a strong pace and his Champion run surely dispelled the notion that he wouldn't get up the hill. Not willing to go in again at 8's (having already had a decent bet at 6's) but it's certainly a fair enough price imo.
 
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I've been quite taken with Sublimity's performances this year although he got done for toe first time then outstayed second time so winning the CH might be beyond him.

As much as I like Solwhit I think the ground is against him and so does his trainer who was quoted as saying he really needs 2m4f on good ground. His aintree performance last year would tend to confirm this view.
 
there much of a difference in the going over the Saturday/Sunday at Leopardstown?

The times of the 2m hurdles races don't tell us much about the big race.

Sat, MCR Hurdle 3m 56.7s
Sun Mdn Hurdle 3m 59.2
Sun Ch Hurdle 3m 58.0

Seems like Celestial Halo set a moderate pace, which the principals followed. Nothing came from the back.

Curiouser and curiouser, at least as far as Celestial Halo is concerned. Presumably Ruby thought he could set his own pace and leave them for dead the way he did at Wincanton but he was at the horse before the turn.
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Different track on Saturday and Sunday, DO. Raced on the inside track on Sunday - a tad shorter distance [I think?] although better ground, nevertheless, I wouldn't read much significance into the fact that the MCR was quicker.

Ruby admitted before the race that his boy doesn't have much of a turn of foot - it just has to be relatively relentness. Only one way to ride him.

For what it's worth, Ted Walsh was interesting on RTE - you know that himself and Ruby speak everyday and that, generally, they tend to sing off the same hymn sheet when it comes to horses. Ted was very strong beforehand on Solwhit as his likely idea of a winner at both Leop and Cheltenham, and even Ruby was saying that while he thought last year's Champ was a right race at the time, it doesn't look like it in hindsight. I really can't believe you are going off a handicap at Wincanton as evidence of anything supporting Celestial Halo...when the jockey said before Sunday's race that he's essentially susceptible to any horse with a turn of foot.

For what it's worth, I thought he was a very likely winner at the start of the season but a combination of subsequent runs, the strength of Solwhit and also Go Native/Medermit, and the poor vibes off connections would suggest to me that you've done your money.
 
Also, Mamlook went up to 145 for Saturday, its first run since Wincanton, which in turn came after a career best in the Cesarewitch. Celestial Halo gave Mamlook a 31lbs beating at Wincanton with the promise of more to come.

As for the principle of using handicap form, may I remind you that Rooster Booster's Greatwood win was acclaimed at the time to be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle and Khyber Kim and Medermit this season also emerged from the Greatwood, as did Sizing Europe a few seasons back.

Didn't For Auction win the equivalent of the MCR en route to the Champion Hurdle?

Make A Stand won a few handicaps leading up the Champion Hurdle and there are many, many more examples down through the years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Make A Stand won a few handicaps leading up the Champion Hurdle and there are many, many more examples down through the years.
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Not only that, but he actually finished fifth in the Greatwood (then the Murphy's Draughtflow Hurdle) in the season he won the Champion. Handicaps are often better indicators of hurdling class than small field graded contests. All the great hurdlers of the sixties and seventies ran in handicaps on a regular, or semi-regular basis.
 
Yeah, but there's far less anecdotal examples in the last few years. Rooster Booster was a good example but then, some people were trying to tell us that Azerty was better than Moscow Flyer on the basis of his run in the Victor Chandler. I assume they've subsequently enrolled for clown college. That's my problem with it - given the way that good horses are trained now, with less runs, and very much geared towards the big day, then I would be extremely wary about hanging my hat on handicap form in the October/November stage of the season.

For example, Sizing Europe ran a good race in the Greatwood, but his Irish Champion Hurdle run was an improvement..but he flopped at Cheltenham anyway.

Of course, there's some good horses that run in handicaps etc, like Khyber and Medermit and so on, nobody is denying that. But to suggest that the best piece of hurdle form this year was in a handicap is hard to stand up for me - certainly, when the said horse has struggled against other contenders since then. I admire your sturdiness towards the cause but, tell me, if CH struggles again on the day, will you revise the rating of the Wincanton run, or just continue to believe that he's run below par since?
 
Is it possible that Celestial Halo is jaded? A bit like how the french horses go off the boil. He came from Mark Prescott if I remember so can't have been too much left in the locker. Then had a tough Triumph hurdle run followed by a tough Champion Hurdle run. Is it possible that he's done too much as a six year old and that's him done with and will only go backwards now?

Not saying I think that's the only reason as I mentioned before the race I just could not see the track suiting him on Sunday. Cheltenham could be a different story.
 
Bobbyjo said:
but, tell me, if CH struggles again on the day, will you revise the rating of the Wincanton run, or just continue to believe that he's run below par since?
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I can't answer that, to be honest.

I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he's running below par for a reason, in the same way that Rooster Booster was never the same horse after the totesport trophy (in which I'm adamant Johnson gave him an unnecessarily hard race) where he was short-headed by Geos.
 
Cantoris said:
Is it possible that Celestial Halo is jaded? A bit like how the french horses go off the boil. He came from Mark Prescott if I remember so can't have been too much left in the locker. Then had a tough Triumph hurdle run followed by a tough Champion Hurdle run. Is it possible that he's done too much as a six year old and that's him done with and will only go backwards now?

Not saying I think that's the only reason as I mentioned before the race I just could not see the track suiting him on Sunday. Cheltenham could be a different story.
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Really like the horse and backed him for the CH after Wincanton. However, unless he has a problem which has not yet come to light, he does look jaded. Reminds me a bit of Katchit, who started to regress the season after he won the Champion.

Will be interesting to see how he fares over fences next season. If he's up to it, I wonder if he will go for the Sun Alliance or the Arkle. If he goes for the former, perhaps it will be an indication that he's been campaigned over the wrong trip over hurdles (if a horse who finishes second in a championship race can be said to be running over the wrong trip).

A lot of conjecture in there, but will be fascinating to see how it pans out.

As far as the Irish race goes, I wasn't that impressed by Solwhit. With Celestial running below his best, he doesn't seem to have beaten much, and he had to try pretty hard. The way he was going away from them at the end made it look like he needed further, too.

I can see a surprise result in the CH this year. Last year's form looks weak, not sure about Solwhit, Zaynar is favourite (or close to being favourite) by default, having not put a foot wrong but not really proven his ability for the big one.
 
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