The Derby 2008

If the time isn't favourable with recent winners, surely it points to the fact that NA would have settled better and been suited by as faster pace.

Good work Steve, your write up made my mind up to go in when drifted to 8/1 on betfair, and had a nice few quid on at 3/1 for the place. That was just a crazy price!
 
If come Irish Champion Stakes day New Approach and Henry have both continued on their winning run, this race could be the ideal match up.
 
Presumably that will be in the Irish Derby....

The first three should all reappear there, the French Derby winner, anything else to come out of the wood work?
 
I think the French Derby winner is on a break and will go for an Arc prep.

I could see a repeat of yesterdays 1-2-3 at the Curragh. O Brien will proabably run a handful with Hindu Kush probably the pacemaker. Might be the first year in a long time he will not have a horse placed in the Irish Derby.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Jun 8 2008, 06:45 AM
BTW, not that I can take all the credit for this idea (someone on another forum planted the idea), but, is Ryan Moore appearing to be morphing into Jamie Spencer?

A number of his rides lately have been drop out the back and try to come from first to last.
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You can't possibly insult Ryan like that, hang your head in shame. :P
 
RP website



NEW APPROACH earned a provisional Racing Post Rating of 126 for his victory in Saturday's Derby, a figure which suggests he is slightly better than an average winner in terms of recent runnings of the premier Classic.

That mark indicates he has improved 1lb from his best two-year-old form and means he is now rated equal to his conqueror in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, Henrythenavigator.

Derby runner-up Tartan Bearer has clearly progressed considerably from his Dante Stakes success, as you would expect of such a lightly raced colt, and he has been given an RPR of 125 for his half-length defeat.

I have rated the race through third-placed Casual Conquest, who appears to have run to the same RPR of 118 that he earned in taking the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial; the ten-year average for Derby winners is 124-125.

There's a chance my figures for Saturday will be adjusted slightly, as I need to assess what effect there was on the track due to the moving of the rail from Friday's position, but I doubt they will alter by more than 1lb either way.

New Approach's winning time was not exceptional, so it would be wise to be cautious.
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If the sections were ordinary and the overall time ordinary, it says a lot for the first two that they came from almost last to first in the last four furlongs in a moderately-run Derby. Dancing Brave couldn't do that.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@Jun 8 2008, 09:15 AM
SteveM said:
Well put Mel. I think Manning was lucky, or at least got away with it. He does deserve credit for getting him to post however.

While the jockey was probably lucky to win the horse would have been decidely unlucky to lose.
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 I beg to disagree - I don't know if you've ever ridden horses Steve?

As several commentators said before the race, NA would not be able to win at Epsom by making all so Manning had a hard task with him, having to try a new tactic in a biggish field and in this of all races. Watching the re-run, NA was a really impossible ride for the first half mile or even mile - Manning could barely control him and was having to concentrate just on keeping him going forward and trying not to bump others.

Many jocks would not have kept enough cool in that situation to be able to then get through the horses falling back and find the gaps. I still think it was a great ride - and owed a great deal more to skill than to luck - he also had to see the gaps in order to take them, and on the camber that wasn't easy.

I'd be interested to hear what some of our our more experienced TB riders think of the ride - Chris, Fudge, SL?

I agree that the horse will go on from here - I think he'll turn out to be one of the greats, and the best of his cohort. It will have taught him and his handlers a huge amount. Tartan Bearer is admirable and has a great attitude, but I'm not sure he will improve to the extent I think NA can. Both however are admirable battlers and the match between them and Henry will be one ot savur
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NA was a really impossible ride for the first half mile or even mile
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When I watched the race live I mentally dismissed NA due to his antics in the first couple of furlongs, and like Jim McGrath didn't pick him up until he was coming up the inside. Watching the replay last night, I was amazed to see that coming around Tattenham Corner, NA was still throwing his head about.
 
To be honest I'm not one for this sensational ride crap tbh. If the horse is good enough any competant pilot will get it home.

Yes the horse was keen early but he switched off after 2f and after that it was pretty plain sailing, just bided his time and cruised through gaps, now a good ride is producing a horse like Geodieland to win or getting Upgrade to jump off. Riding one of the best 3yos in the world to win a sub standard Derby isn't exactly rocket science.

I reckon many jockeys would have won on him yesterday.

I think more praise needs to go to those who have ensured the horse
got there okay and his gradual imporvements shown at home. The fact he has settled better in his hoem work. The pony rider who helps keep him calm. It pisses me off how much praise a jockey gets for no more than ten minutes work. The hard graft is done at home but lads and "hands on" trainers. Must jockeys find a way of fucking up on a good horse, its all very easy when a horse is travelling for you to find your gaps. Try maintaining a promising position on something that is on and off the bit like McCoy thats when jockey skill comes into it. I personally feel the majority of the weighing room could have won on him yesterday.

More to a point refering to my horse who is no better than a 60 horse, he lost confidence and was all wrong, fair do's to Bill and his staff they persavered. A good head used by Matt Davies helped him back on the winning curve but its was his lass Chrissy that made the big improvement for him in lots of attention, getting him to settle better and getting him to enjoy his work again. Many of Stars owners just liked to praise Matt but I certainly made it clear who I felt done the most for the horse and they were looked after appropiately.
 
Interesting reply Chris, thanks for that; though I have to agree with Gareth, the horse didn't switch off!
Manning is Bolger's son in law though, and I daresay does a fair amount on him at home?

Here is Brough Scott's view which is closer to my own, but would carry any amount more weight him having ridden in a lot of races whilst I've ridden in none [though I've ridden a few tough buggers in my youth]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/main.jhtm...8/shscot108.xml
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Jun 8 2008, 05:22 PM
To be honest I'm not one for this sensational ride crap tbh. If the horse is good enough any competant pilot will get it home.
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That's not strictly true though, is it Chris?

Manning did give the horse a good ride, especially in those early stages. You and I both know how hard it can be sometimes to sit and suffer in behind something when your horse is taking a grip and you're holding it, but just. Plenty of less competent jockeys would either have angled the horse out so they had a gap and let him run a bit to make life a little easier and so they weren't at risk of clipping heels, or stayed where they were and run up the backside of another horse, what with NA pulling so hard, and possibly clipped heels.

I agree with a lot of the rest of what you are saying though, but the sentences highlighted simply aren't true, it doesn't always work out that simplistically.
 
If Fallon had of won on the horse yesterday RUK and co would have been going OTT about the ride as they did with his rides on Kris Kin etc. They were pretty dismissive and rude yesterday, borne out of their dislike of Bolger.
 
Agreed, and it's very unfortunate. Simon Holt reports on the press conference in the ST, and says Manning was sat there looking shocked as most of the reptiles laid into Bolger - he got hardly any congrats or praise at all.

Holt also reports that Ferguson gave his word that Bolger never spoke to him nor anyone else in Sheikh Mo's camp about NA going for the Derby, until a few days after the Irtish Derby - ie that Bolger's account of events is true, in so far as it concerns the intention to run, form their point of view. Fwiw, tho some of you will I know never forgive the man!
 
Okay I probably didn't give Manning enough cred on a good ride, yes he gave it a very good ride and yes did derserve some credit but the way everyones been going on about it, you would have thought he won on that yoke of Fergas Wilson's. End of the day he was on the best horse in the race so the fact he won despite pulling wasn't thatsusprising was it.

I personally didn't think he would stay but had I backed it I wouldn't have ever really been that worried.

Yes I do think Heads that Manning does do a bit at the yard and all that but I would be surprised if he was in every morning riding him.

Fact is its a jockeys job to ride them in a race thats what they are paid to do. He followed orders and won.

Now one jockey who has surprised me of doing so well is Jim Crowley. 3 years ago he rode Ellway Prospect at Ludlow and his orders were simple, keep pushing, kicking and hitting. Unfortunately he thought he knew better.

Thats what makes a good jockey, good relations and ability to ride as connections ask. This is where and why I depsise Spencer as he is so one dimensional, as he just rides one way and its pot luck if you tell him to do something different.

Yesterday he pretty much done what he done in the Dewhurst but becuase of a longer trip was keen, had he been so keen on a strong pace I think it would have found him out, but the fact was they went slow until 4.5f out and therefore by pulling he hadn't done too much damage as he has natural speed as well which was always going to suit him if they went slow. I feel a flat out 1m 4f like the L'Arc would see Tartan Bearer do him, he was rallying back late and suited Ryan's style of riding.

I just don't think it was the magnificent ride everyone wants to make it out to be. Sit on a pointer hwose form is PPUF-UU and then see it make 4 mistakes , off the bridle all the way and win a head, then thats a great ride from a great jockey.
 
A line of investigation I've tried in trying to get a handle on New Approach's win relates to the 0-100 run over same C&D half an hour later (this was a 0-105 in 2004 and further back, and was run an hour later in 2002 and 2000).

The problem with this line of investigation of course is that you're by no means guaranteed to be picking up anything that necessarily relates to the Derby winner, and can just as easily pick up a line regarding the merits or otherwise, of the handicap winner, or the way that either race was run. But leaving that aside;

Authorized = +4.39 quicker
High Chapperral = +2.16
Sindaar = +2.10
Galileo = +1.84
North Light = +1.53
Kris Kin = +1.45
Sir Percy = +1.37
New Approach = +1.35
Motivator = +0.98

Now using this line of investigation (with all its acknowledged flaws) we generate a potentially interesting list indeed. My normal practice is to remove the two extremities from these kind of listing for the reasons mentioned earlier. Or to put it this way, Authorized probably had a corresponding slow handicapper or tactical race to be compared against as he's got double the level of superiority over his nearest rival, (High Chapperral).

Although he doesn't have double the level, Motivator is 27% below his nearest and might well have been subjected to a particularly good or fast handicap being won on his respective card, and thus surpressing his relative performance. So the revised list would read;

High Chapperral = +2.16
Sindaar = +2.10
Galileo = +1.84
North Light = +1.53
Kris Kin = +1.45
Sir Percy = +1.37
New Approach = +1.35

I don't pretend to know what (or even if) there is any merit to this line of investigation. It is perhaps unfortunate that the hierarchy created by using the handicap race as a benchmark just happens to merit a crude reflection on the horses subsequent abilities.

Returning to the first list minus the omissions, all of the top 4 would go on to win another Gp1, the bottom 4 (with the jury out on New Approach) wouldn't.? Coincidence?
 
Remember reading a quote from Bolger that he had only been working on settling New Approach for about 10 days before the Derby (that was one of the factors that put me off in fact). It's a massive credit to the horse that he managed to win despite pulling so hard off a fairly moderate gallop.
 
Returning to the first list minus the omissions, all of the top 4 would go on to win another Gp1, the bottom 4 (with the jury out on New Approach) wouldn't.? Coincidence?
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Interesting innit Warbler


Good post as usual
 
Very interesting set of stats - and no I don't think it's a co-incidence.

- But!! - very few if any Derby winners and their runners-up have drawn away from the field, after being out the back for most of the race.

NA gave himself a very hard race indeed, and if the necessary lessons have been taken on board [inc by the horse!], then I would be amazed if New Approach didn't win a few more Group 1s. He's no Rakti either, and will imo learn to settle better with experience and self-confidence.

He's also proved he doesn't have to be ridden one way, tho Manning is reported as saying he got very lit up finding himself between horses, which caused all the head-throwing.
 
Reminds me of a post I made after last year's renewal:

http://talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/index.php...ndpost&p=364151

Not all speed figures are calculated the same. Here's mine for the last 10 years:

High Chaparral 102.95
Galileo 102.94
Authorized 102.89
Sinndar 102.70
North Light 102.48
Kris Kin 101.98
Motivator 101.45
Oath 100.99
Sir Percy 100.31
High-Rise 99.23

So yeah, I really really hope Authorized keeps winning!
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This year's is slower than all of those on my ratings.

(Speaking of which, Stoute's Conduit put up a big performance in the opening handicap).
 
Should add to that agreement with others that the winner and second actually deserve extra credit for coming from out the back off a slow pace. In fact the time was so slow that it's probably pretty meaningless in telling us how good the winner is; he's run a lot faster in the past. The only thing it brings up is that he hasn't proved he stays a strongly run 12f, but to be honest, given his breeding that was never a doubt for many people (including me) anyway.
 
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