The Derby 2008

Originally posted by Warbler+Jun 4 2008, 10:05 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Jun 4 2008, 10:05 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gareth Flynn@Jun 4 2008, 09:21 AM
What does Mordin say about Casual Conquest?

Is he laying New Approach on the basis of his don't-prep-over-a-mile theory?
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"I'd be very surprised if Causal Conquest lost the Derby. He earned a huge speed rating from me when winning the Derrinstown stud trial with a tremedous burst of acceleration. The people who compile Racing post ratings were pretty impressed too. They gave him a rating of 118 for the win. Only three winners of the Derrinstoiwn stud trial before Casual Conquest earned RPR's of 115 or more for their success in the big race. The three in queastion were Sinndar, Galileo and High Chapparral. All three went on to win at Epsom."

In answer to the second question. Yes

"Between 1967 and 1977 eight of the 11 Derby winners prepped over 1M or less at three. Between 1978 and 1992, only five of the 15 Derby winners had prep races over a mile or less> Since 1992 only one of the 59 runners who prepped over 1m or less that season, scored at Epsom. This was Sir Percy whose short head and rather fortunate looking success later earned his jockey the Lester Award for flat ride of the year." [/b][/quote]
The thing about New Approach is that there was a good argument for not running him in either Guineas as he was the horse with the most stamina potential in both races. This does not apply to most horses that were ‘prepped’ at a mile. He is more in the mould of a Generous or a Nashwan than these others.

I too like Casual Conquest and in truth would be even more confident about New Approach if he weren’t taking part. However it is difficult to be confident about him as he is so unexposed. There is no doubt that New Approach represents a much higher level of form.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Jun 4 2008, 10:05 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Jun 4 2008, 10:05 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gareth Flynn@Jun 4 2008, 09:21 AM
What does Mordin say about Casual Conquest?

Is he laying New Approach on the basis of his don't-prep-over-a-mile theory?
Click to expand...
"I'd be very surprised if Causal Conquest lost the Derby. He earned a huge speed rating from me when winning the Derrinstown stud trial with a tremedous burst of acceleration. The people who compile Racing post ratings were pretty impressed too. They gave him a rating of 118 for the win. Only three winners of the Derrinstoiwn stud trial before Casual Conquest earned RPR's of 115 or more for their success in the big race. The three in queastion were Sinndar, Galileo and High Chapparral. All three went on to win at Epsom."

In answer to the second question. Yes

"Between 1967 and 1977 eight of the 11 Derby winners prepped over 1M or less at three. Between 1978 and 1992, only five of the 15 Derby winners had prep races over a mile or less> Since 1992 only one of the 59 runners who prepped over 1m or less that season, scored at Epsom. This was Sir Percy whose short head and rather fortunate looking success later earned his jockey the Lester Award for flat ride of the year." [/b][/quote]
Typical of Mordin to take stats out of context.

There has been a trend towards prepping beyond a mile because the horses were not good enough to win at the shorter trip and because the constantly increasing value of the Derby has meant connections largely bypassing the Guineas to keep horses fresh for Epsom.

Exceptions to the rule by definition only come along once in a blue moon. New Approach strikes me as one such exception.
 
Originally posted by Gamla Stan@Jun 4 2008, 01:24 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few boos from the crowd if New Approach wins.
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I would be surprised if there weren't widepread booing if he wins.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jun 4 2008, 10:46 AM
Exceptions to the rule by definition only come along once in a blue moon. New Approach strikes me as one such exception.
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The last three winners of the Derby to have shown enough speed at 2 to win the Dewhurst all "prepped" at 1m. None of them won in that prep.

Of course 2 of the other 3 Dewhurst winners to have come to the Derby in recent years and lost also prepped at 1m.
 
On the subject of booing, there are precedents.

I was at Newmarket in 1983 when there was quite widespread booing after Lomond had won the Two Thousand Guineas. There was a distinct impression that the Vincent O'Brien team hadn't been straight with the public about Danzatore, the long-time ante-post favourite - does that sound familiar? - and Lomond was a late replacement.

Also, I think I've read that Piggott's Derby win on Roberto attracted hostility from sections of the crowd who felt that Bill Williamson had been badly treated when jocked off by Lester. This was (just) before my time.
 
Originally posted by gus@Jun 4 2008, 01:42 PM
On the subject of booing, there are precedents.

Also, I think I've read that Piggott's Derby win on Roberto attracted hostility from sections of the crowd who felt that Bill Williamson had been badly treated when jocked off by Lester. This was (just) before my time.
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I remember that Gus but the feeling was that Piggott was much better that Williamsom and he proved it on the day. Cold business but few could have argued after the race..and yes I did feel sorry for Williamson.
 
Casual Conquest's one run this season was impressive indeed, but I'm fair amazed to see such a short price for a horse with so very little experience, coming to a foreign country with all the razzmatazz of Derby Day. He'll be a fullyy deserving winner and pretty tough if he can carry this off.

I'm worried on the other hand that New Approach has too much experience LOL! I won't cheer for the trainer if he wins, albeit he may have been put in an impossible position; but I'd cheer for the horse who would deserve it, and the sporting Princess Haya who stuck out for what she wanted. I've backed him yet again to small stakes, might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb :rolleyes:

One outcome which would not amaze me is a Stoute 1/2/3 - is anyone offering odds?
 
Murtagh been on ATR, went summat like this


All are in good form, but he's chosen King of Rome because he thinks he's the one that has come on most
 
Can't say I'd be shocked if I saw him appearing on the scene with 2f left to run, he struck me as a lazy type who didn't really know what it was all about the two times I saw him, he looked well balanced and should be a bit smarter on Saturday,might have a couple of sheckles on myself ....just in case.
 
So after all that, looks like we got a top class renewal after all!

No doubt that the best horse won, and given how he pulled like crazy and had to be switched inside and out on that track, you have to think he's better again.
 
Remarkable performance from the winner given his refusal to settle early on.

Well done to Steve and DO for taking a chance at his price.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Jun 4 2008, 11:05 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Jun 4 2008, 11:05 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Gareth Flynn@Jun 4 2008, 09:21 AM

Is he laying New Approach on the basis of his don't-prep-over-a-mile theory?
Click to expand...


In answer to the second question. Yes

"Between 1967 and 1977 eight of the 11 Derby winners prepped over 1M or less at three. Between 1978 and 1992, only five of the 15 Derby winners had prep races over a mile or less> Since 1992 only one of the 59 runners who prepped over 1m or less that season, scored at Epsom. This was Sir Percy whose short head and rather fortunate looking success later earned his jockey the Lester Award for flat ride of the year." [/b][/quote]
Yeah, Nick has made a tit of himself with his obsession over this stat. For it to have any relevence it shouldn`t just cover the winner, but any performance in the race that could be considered good enough to win an average Derby. So off the top of my head he should include Hawk Wing and Golan who were second after prepping over a mile and Dr Devious who prepped in the Craven and Kentucky Derby (which just as much of a speed test as the 2000 Guineas)
 
Well done to all who backed New Approach. If Bolger can manage to get New Approach to settle properly behind a lead, he'll be even better again.

Form looks pretty solid at first glance and I for one wouldn't begrudge Manning, Bolger or Sheikh Mohammed a Derby winner.
 
Manning in particular impressed me. That could have been an absolute nightmare in so many ways but he managed to make it work.
 
The next question is how long Bolger can keep giving him this arduous campaign? If they want to run him in the Arc he will surely have to miss the King George?
 
I saw Bolger on RUK earlier. He mentioned the Irish Derby obviously, and then said possibly York and the Irish Champion Stakes. Then the King George came as an afterthought before he said they'd finish with the Arc.
 
I hope they will now swerve the Irish Derby just to let him down a bit to prepare for the end of season Championship races. But he might be one of those animals which lives on its nerves and thrives on challenges. Very impressive anyway - glad I kept the faith albeit not at the massive odds some got, and did top[ up when I saw him relaxed enough int he paddock today.

Congrats to those who got the 3 fig odds, and I can only say I was thrilled to see him win just for the horse. It's good to have a proper Champ winning the Derby, it was the right result. And Bolder did graciously admit to Clare B that he was "happy to agree, this is the best!"
 
Bolger is adamant he didn't have a hard race at the Curragh. Didn't lose any weight and was "kicking and bucking" the following week. So I wouldn't be too worried about him. If the horse was ever going to say "no thanks", then today was surely the day.
 
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