The Derby 2008

I've converted em

High Chapperral = 121
Sindaar = 124
Galileo = 117
North Light = 115
Kris Kin = 113
Sir Percy = 109
New Approach = 109


Don't look good for New Approach does it and i for one will take him on when/if he lines up against Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Getaway, McArthur etc
 
Originally posted by Homer J@Jun 8 2008, 11:16 AM
I think TB will reverse the placings next time they meet.
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...not a snowball's chance in hell of that Homer. It's rare to see a horse do everything wrong in a Group 1, let alone the Derby, and still win well.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Jun 8 2008, 01:48 PM
SteveM said:
SteveM said:
Well put Mel. I think Manning was lucky, or at least got away with it. He does deserve credit for getting him to post however.

While the jockey was probably lucky to win the horse would have been decidely unlucky to lose.
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I beg to disagree - I don't know if you've ever ridden horses Steve?

As several commentators said before the race, NA would not be able to win at Epsom by making all so Manning had a hard task with him, having to try a new tactic in a biggish field and in this of all races. Watching the re-run, NA was a really impossible ride for the first half mile or even mile - Manning could barely control him and was having to concentrate just on keeping him going forward and trying not to bump others.

Many jocks would not have kept enough cool in that situation to be able to then get through the horses falling back and find the gaps. I still think it was a great ride - and owed a great deal more to skill than to luck - he also had to see the gaps in order to take them, and on the camber that wasn't easy.

I'd be interested to hear what some of our our more experienced TB riders think of the ride - Chris, Fudge, SL?

I agree that the horse will go on from here - I think he'll turn out to be one of the greats, and the best of his cohort. It will have taught him and his handlers a huge amount. Tartan Bearer is admirable and has a great attitude, but I'm not sure he will improve to the extent I think NA can. Both however are admirable battlers and the match between them and Henry will be one ot savur
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 ...if I rode a thoroughbred it wouldn't get half a furlong headstrong. I was less impressed with Manning than many however (although I don't think Sheikh Mo was too impressed either).
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Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 8 2008, 04:27 PM
he switched off after 2f
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He didn't.
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It's true he settled down a little when the pace increased, but if you look at the race you will see that Gareth is right. Switched off is not what he did.

When Bolger teaches him to switch off this will be some mile and a half horse.
 
Originally posted by Dave G@Jun 8 2008, 10:38 AM
If the time isn't favourable with recent winners, surely it points to the fact that NA would have settled better and been suited by as faster pace.

Good work Steve, your write up made my mind up to go in when drifted to 8/1 on betfair, and had a nice few quid on at 3/1 for the place. That was just a crazy price!
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Good on you Dave... 3s a place is the type of bet you would take all day long on a horse like this!
 
Hence why it would be wrong to suggest that Eddie Freemantle was taking a swipe at Bolger with the headline (and moderately clever/ sarcastic play on words) in the Observer.

"Winner Bolger earns from his mistake"
 
New Approach has been given a rating of 126 from British Horseracing Authority senior handicapper Phil Smith following his brilliant victory in the Vodafone Derby.

I’ve come up with 126 for the horse. That is based on two things – I had Casual Conquest going into the race on 118 and he’s given him a five-length beating which works out at 8lb over a mile and a half,” said Smith.

New Approach earned the same rating when champion two-year-old, but Smith explained that in itself is some achievement.

“Interestingly, 126 was New Approach’s rating as a two-year-old. It seems the sensible option to give him the same rating,” he went on.

“That doesn’t mean to say he hasn’t improved. There’s a massive weight for age difference between the Dewhurst as a two-year-old and the Derby as a three-year-old. He has made massive improvement just to stay at the same rating of 126.”

I don't understand the bit where he says the horse has improved but he's giving him the same rating. Why is weight for age not taken into account and than added to his rating. Are their runs as 2yr olds and 3yr olds rated in separate contexts ?
 
The main question for me is how New Approach will continue to take his racing. I dont think it will be an issue come Irish Derby but it will be important for this horse to get a mid summer break.

I completely disagree with Desert Orchid when he says because I a mile was too short for him, it did not take anything out of him. Its arguable that those mile races, where he was going a couple of strides too fast on ground too fast, would have taken more out of him than his Derby effort.
 
Bolgers charges do seem to be particularly hardy,if you look at the hard races Saoirse abu had last year and she is still running well.
 
Originally posted by Sheikh@Jun 9 2008, 07:34 AM
I’ve come up with 126 for the horse. That is based on two things – I had Casual Conquest going into the race on 118 and he’s given him a five-length beating which works out at 8lb over a mile and a half,” said Smith.
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This, of course, means he doesn't think Casual Conquest improved an inch from the Derrinstown which he won easily when very probably left with plenty to work on.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 9 2008, 07:38 AM
I completely disagree with Desert Orchid when he says because I a mile was too short for him, it did not take anything out of him. Its arguable that those mile races, where he was going a couple of strides too fast on ground too fast, would have taken more out of him than his Derby effort.
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I understand your argument, Galileo, but I don't think physiology works like that although obviously I don't consider myself an expert.

I do know from working out in the gym that if I set the treadmill to a speed that takes me out of my comfort zone I can't sustain it for very long but I recover within a matter of minutes. However, if I set it to my comfort limit I'm OK until I try to keep it going for longer than I'm used to, and I know I need at least a week to get over it.

I'd imagine the fact that New Approach managed to finish second in both Guineas meant he wasn't out of his comfort zone for too long in the first and he didn't really let himself down anyway in the second.
 
Personally I think he was out of his comfort zone for every single furlong of his mile races, that was not the case on Saturday.

Physically I would not worry about the horse, it’s a mental thing. Going that extra stride too fast can turn a horse off the game pretty quickly as he is having to work from the word go.
 
I don't understand the bit where he says the horse has improved but he's giving him the same rating. Why is weight for age not taken into account and than added to his rating. Are their runs as 2yr olds and 3yr olds rated in separate contexts ?
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The 126 after his Dewhurst would have included 22lbs of weight-for-age, so his unadjusted rating was 104.

In contrast, his Derby rating only includes 15 lbs of weight-for-age, so his unadjusted rating is 111.

Therefore he's improved by 7lbs between the races - which is the amount that the WFA table expects a 2yo/3yo horse to do between late October and early June.
 
Originally posted by Charlie D@Jun 8 2008, 07:24 PM
I've converted em

High Chapperral = 121
Sindaar = 124
Galileo = 117
North Light = 115
Kris Kin = 113
Sir Percy = 109
New Approach = 109


Don't look good for New Approach does it and i for one will take him on when/if he lines up against Soldier of Fortune, Youmzain, Getaway, McArthur etc
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Getaway has been shown up as not quite top class. Not Shirocoo, not Manduro, and never placed in a Group 1 over middle distances (i think?).
 
There is for 4yos, but only at middle distances and above, and it mostly runs out before the season gets going properly. The most prominent use of it in a Group 1 is probably when 4yos get a couple of pounds off in the Ascot Gold Cup.

You can see the scale at:

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/inside_h...ia/WFA_Flat.pdf

(note that they've messed up a bit, all those 'Jan-15' headings should be '1-15', someone didn't format their Excel sheet propertly :P)
 
Thanks Gareth, I've always rated horses my own way which is mostly instinctive. I only reference handicap ratings. About time I got to grips with it.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Jun 9 2008, 08:30 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Jun 9 2008, 08:30 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Sheikh@Jun 9 2008, 07:34 AM
I’ve come up with 126 for the horse. That is based on two things – I had Casual Conquest going into the race on 118 and he’s given him a five-length beating which works out at 8lb over a mile and a half,” said Smith.
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This, of course, means he doesn't think Casual Conquest improved an inch from the Derrinstown which he won easily when very probably left with plenty to work on. [/b][/quote]
I'd def question Smith's judgement on this, if it means what I think it means.

For Casual Conquest to come 3rd on only his third run in the Derby is terrific, and I can see loads of improvement there - as I said earlier he is the one to keep a close eye on here, as I think this experience will have taught him as much any horse in the race bar NA - possibly more; and it has to be a step up on the Derristown given the trickiness of the track surely?

My instinct is that speed figs from this Derby aren't going to mean much given the relatively slow early pace, however adjusted
 
Those aren't speed figs, but I agree that:

speed figs from this Derby aren't going to mean much given the relatively slow early pace
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As for Casual Conquest, any improvement he might have shown has to be balanced with the nagging possibility that he didn't quite stay.
 
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