The Derby 2008

I have Washington Irving and Kingdom of Naples both to win around 500 quid and I think the former has a good chance if allowed to take his chance. The second was a guess, but I am encouraged by the overall form of the APOB 3yo's and I think he could have this year's winner in his yard.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@May 15 2008, 02:01 PM
I think we are seeing the aftermath of a very cold wet spring - horses only just coming to themselves following the last week or two of sunshine - hence a lot of odd results being thrown up esp with horses with middle-distance pedigrees who had little experience at 2
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Either that or Twice Over was totally overrated on the basis of a Craven win against an obvious non-stayer (who was not made to get competitive on the day either), and on the basis of a win in a 2 year old pattern race that is hardly the best guide to future classic winners.

Personally I think the Dante is unlikely now to produce the Derby winner given they finished in a bit of a heap, and unless Henrythenavigator turns up we are unlikely to see a vintage Derby whoever wins.

The filly yesterday won in the manner of a horse with pretentions to greatness but sadly her trainer is not playing ball. Considering he won the Oaks with Jet Ski Lady it is sad he is now turning his back on it - a victory which probably did little harm to his reputation as a trainer in terms of attracting continued support from top owners.

BTW, I wouldn't call Ballymacoll a "small stud". I would regard them as one of the top bracket of owner breeders in the game, carrying on the great work of founders Sobell/Weinstock who's colours set the world alight with the likes of Troy and Sun Princess. They don't have precocuious 2 year olds so usually their stock don't head classic ante-post lists in the winter - but thats not to say they are small, just more geared to producing middle distance classic aspirants.
 
I am cautious when it comes to stats after Cheltenham!

C4 showed the Derrinstown again, granted the winner was hugely impressive but Washinton Irving did not actually run that bad. He travelled well but was out paced completely by the winner. Granted a thorough test over the extra two furlongs and maybe he is not completely out of it. Grasping at straws maybe particularly seeing as Ladbrokes have removed him from the betting.

Kingdom of Naples due to run next weekend at The Curragh.
 
Always like to see Ballymacoll do well; they've got some tremendous families and have tended to campaign their top horses relatively agressively.

BTW if Tartan Bearer does go on to Group 1 success, I'd imagine he's odds on to eventually stand at the same stud as his Dad and his brother...
 
I think the first two in the Dante represent great value for the Derby.
The form is solid imo. Casual conquest is an unlikely runner and I doubt he is good enough for the race. Curtain call has doubts about the ground and could be too fresh for the race.
Frozen fire is my pick at the moment. He wasn´t backed today and I hope he can improve with the distance and this race. Ground won´t be a problem either.
Puzzled with the 10 / 1 available on Ladbrokes though.
 
I think it is a very open Derby but the form to follow is todays Dante, I know no horse beaten in the Dante has gone on to win the Derby but Frozen Fire is the one to take out of this field and is the one for me.

I think Twic Over run a similar race in todays race and in the Craven (116) and the form looks solid with Gosdens horse running his race (118).

Tajweed and Tartan Bearer are the main dangers.


The unknown is Casual Conquest, I am not sure they will pay the supplement entrie.
 
From PA Sport

Casual Conquest's owners indicated they are prepared to pay the £75,000 to supplement their colt for the Vodafone Derby - should trainer Dermot Weld give his seal of approval.

The six-length winner of last Sunday's Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown leapt to the top of the betting with some firms in a currently cloudy Epsom picture.

Weld did not enter Casual Conquest in the Derby at an earlier stage, preferring at the weekend to pinpoint the French or Irish equivalents as more probable options.

Stan Cosgrove, the manager of his owners Moyglare Stud Farm, said: "He still has his options open and it's a possibility to go to Epsom, but he's just had the two runs and he might just be a little inexperienced.

"We'll see how everything goes for a while - we only need to supplement him four days before the race."

Reflecting on Leopardstown, Cosgrove continued: "He annihilated them. He's a great big horse and that was only his first run of the year.

"It's really up to the trainer and the jockey (to make a decision about supplementing). Regarding the money, there's no problem with that."
 
The fact Weld immediately nominated the French Derby suggested to me he may have stamina doubts about Casual Conquest. I know he mentioned the Irish as well. Kris on dam's side a potential cause for concern perhaps.
 
It`s turning into quite a fascinating contest. I took 16s about Tajaaweed at the weekend and feel Casual Conquest and the front two in the Dante are gonna be very hard to beat. For the life of me i can`t understand how Curtain Call is still the favourite on Betfair.
 
The owners (of Casual Conquest) comments today suggests they are more than happy to pay the supplimentary fee if the trainer feels the horse was ready for the race. He stressed that the horse had only come to himself in the last two weeks and for that reason they would be worried that his inexperience on the track and at home might find him out at Epsom and set him back. So it sounds like it's up the the trainer, a tricky balancing act of getting the horse ready for Epsom but not pushing him too hard to quickly.
 
Is the Dante not being judged purely on the race's reputation? Connections seem to think Twice Over doesn't really stay 1m2f - he's likely a miler - and are bypassing Epsom. So, scrapping him, you're left with two maiden winners fighting out the finish. One of which was rated 85, though admittedly well related and underestimated. The other a Ballydoyle colt who didn't seem to be on the Epsom radar at all beforehand. I've stopped trying to figure out that particular hierarchy. Suddenly they're both very hard to beat. Perhaps but only because of the apparent paucity of quality opposition. And who is backing all these Ballydoyle horses for the Derby and Oaks? Their prices are up and down like yo-yos...
 
In fairness the Sandown trial winner (who's form ties in with Group 1 horses last season) was well beaten by two colts who look like they have more to give. But I agree quotes of 4/1 and 5/1 look pretty mean for the top two today.
 
I think Twice Over stayed very well, he was beaten by 2 better horses, I think he is a 115-117 horse and does not have the scope of the first.

The Derby looked week until last 7 days,
a pity New Approach is not running but the race looks a very good one for me now,


About Curtain Call, I also think he is a ridiculous price.
 
I agree, I dont think it was the ground or trip for Twice Over. He just outstayed Raven's Pass in the Craven and was not up to it today.
 
Fair enough. I didn't get to see the race today so just throwing some thoughts out on the reports I read. I guess if he stayed, it's pretty good form. Didn't like Centennial at Sandown, form's taken knocks too.
 
The other a Ballydoyle colt who didn't seem to be on the Epsom radar at all beforehand. I've stopped trying to figure out that particular hierarchy.
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Don't bother trying in the first place - IMO O'Brien himself is figuring it out as he goes these days and letting the horses tell him, which is understandable given the profile of the horses in question. He's not the only one - remember how Stoute actually took Kris Kin out of the Derby before putting him back in after he won at Chester? The penny just seems to drop with them sometimes and suddenly they're thriving and improving at the rate of knots.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 15 2008, 11:08 PM
The other a Ballydoyle colt who didn't seem to be on the Epsom radar at all beforehand. I've stopped trying to figure out that particular hierarchy.
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Don't bother trying in the first place - IMO O'Brien himself is figuring it out as he goes these days and letting the horses tell him, which is understandable given the profile of the horses in question. He's not the only one - remember how Stoute actually took Kris Kin out of the Derby before putting him back in after he won at Chester? The penny just seems to drop with them sometimes and suddenly they're thriving and improving at the rate of knots.
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His training methods have certainly drastically changed over the years. 5-6 years ago even his poorish two year olds were so straight and well schooled first time out that they looked better than they actually were. Nowadays you cannot rule out one their horses until its 3rd or 4th run. Can be confusing but makes for interesting viewing.
 
Time of the Dante doesn't look anything special (slower than the Middleham), especially given that they seemed to go a decent gallop throughout.

That said, Tartan Bearer looks like the typical Stoute Derby type, so certainly merits a good deal of respect.

Surely Weld will stick in Casual Conquest now.

I can't have this as a vintage Derby all of a sudden. A compettitive one, yes, but hardly much more than that IMO.
 
Two great big horses in Casual Conquest and Tajaweed, 1st and second if they turn up and handle the track, which has to be a doubt although for a horse over 17h Tajaweeed sure is good on his feet.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@May 15 2008, 07:52 PM
For the life of me i can`t understand how Curtain Call is still the favourite on Betfair.
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Although Casual Conquest is now favourite on BF, I couldn't agree more about Curtain Call's Derby price and have decided to put my money where my mouth is and lay him.
 
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