The Derby 2008

Originally posted by trackside528@May 15 2008, 09:15 PM
Time of the Dante doesn't look anything special (slower than the Middleham), especially given that they seemed to go a decent gallop throughout.
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The Middleton was won by a 115-rated older filly carrying 2lbs less than Tartan Bearer. If it was anything like truly-run (and there's every indication that it was given the way the field was strung out although Promising Lead almost certainly didn't have to run quite to 115 to win it) then Tartan Bearer would have had to put up an incredible perfomance on the clock to record a faster time. As it is, Tartan Bearer's figure comes out 9lbs faster than that of Promising Lead by my calculations after weight-for-age is taken into account.

My conclusion is that Tartan Bearer put up a fast time and that fits in with the distances between the beaten horses and the visual impression during the race.
 
Fair enough, Gus.

On balance, I've taken a decidedly positive view of the form. Though it's fairly clear that Twice Over won't get a mile and a half, everything about him suggested 10 furlongs would be within his compass. I can't find any reason to doubt he stayed either, just beaten by two better colts on the day. Combined with the fact that Centennial was beaten a good distance (granted, conditions were probably against him) I think there is a fairly solid look about the form.

Tartan Bearer will uphold the form with Frozen Fire at Epsom as well IMO.
 
O'Brien confirms Henrythenavigator runs in the Irish Guineas on Saturday assuming the ground is good or better. While it does not completely rule him out of the Derby it surely is a sign its more unlikely than not that he will not run at Epsom.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@May 16 2008, 12:15 PM
On balance, I've taken a decidedly positive view of the form. Though it's fairly clear that Twice Over won't get a mile and a half, everything about him suggested 10 furlongs would be within his compass. I can't find any reason to doubt he stayed either, just beaten by two better colts on the day.
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Judging by Henry Cecil's comments on the RP website this evening about letting Kandahar Run take his chance, he seems to feel Twice Over def *was* hitting a brick wall at 9 flgs and intends to drop him back to a mile - just in case that view affects anyone's take on the form
 
I think Twice Over will struggle to win a Group 1 over any trip to be honest, Headstrong.

Kandahar Run doesn't have much of a chance in the Derby either.
 
Agreed on both counts, though if Henry changes his training regime for TO, rather than trying to train him for the Derby trip, maybe that will work? He must think so to say what he did; tho whether he's a Group 1 horse is as you say debatable

I'm getting keener by the day on Tartan Bearer for the Derby


PS Just up on the RP site, from an AP report:

<< TWICE OVER's connections have identified a problem with the colt's blood as a possible reason for his shock defeat in the Totesport.com Dante Stakes at York on Thursday.

The Henry Cecil-trained colt went into the 1m2f contest as ante-post favourite for the Vodafone Derby, but failed to fire in the closing stages and could only manage third behind Tartan Bearer.
Owner Khalid Abdullah's racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said: "Twice Over's blood wasn't quite right after his race.

"We are just going to sit on him for a while, but the Derby still remains very much doubtful." >>
 
After the debacle in the Dante, I was beginning to think that Henry had made a rare error of judgment with regard to Twice Over's optimum racing distance - is he an 8f, 10f or 12f animal?

If he's now got a minor infection of some kind, then it may be all systems go for Epsom after all.
 
The support for Casual Conquest today suggests the Irish mafia have given up their attempts to steal the prestige of the Epsom Derby.
 
There are several that will stay this year, which means those that those stretched for the trip have no chance.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 20 2008, 02:48 PM
The support for Casual Conquest today suggests the Irish mafia have given up their attempts to steal the prestige of the Epsom Derby.
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If Irish racing did take the view that Epsom is unpopular with many trainers, and not seen as a 'fair' test of the best 3yr old colt due to the oddity of the track [and the road which crosses it], and that the Irish Derby might be seen as a fairer test in time, esp if the top Irish colts all ran there rather than at Espsom over a few years, then I wouldn't blame them at all.

And if the Irish Derby became the more prestigious race, in time and for those reasons, it would NOT be a matter of stealing, but of justified perception; so let's not put yet more words into my mouth, eh? I never used the word steal, not did I imply it
 
It looks like a concerted effort to wrest the prestige of the Oaks and Derby from the UK to me, and hand it to Ireland.
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Wrest...steal? But fair enough I take it you didn't mean it as such.
 
I have no problem with the thought that the Irish Derby will in time be a more important race than the Epsom version. Our Derby is run on a nightmare of a course.

I`m happy with the fact that our Guineas will always be the most enticing early season classics in Europe.
 
I was under the impression that the Derby is where it is - at least in part - *because* of the course.
 
Yes that's the arguement but lots of people including myself think we should be trying to see how fast they can run and not trying to trip them up.
 
Seriously though, I never quite realised how bizarre Epsom is until I saw it in the flesh. It's really something else.
 
It's certainly some test of mainly inexperienced horses, given many middle distance colts don't race much if at all until their 3 yr old season. However that may be....

Having spent many hours over the last few days trying to find the Derby winner, I felt really p*ssed off when I'd done so, as I did a bit more research and realised he would almost certainly not run... Confirmed today -

Thewayyouare - you'd a dunnit :what: Boo hoo!! How could they not have primed him for this?!!
On his breeding, AND his record, he'd have been a shoo in, given one prep race at the right distance...
 
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