The Derby 2008
- Thread starter Harbinger
- Start date
Kingdom Of Naples is not in the Derby anymore after todays stage. New Approach is still in there....
Achill Island (IRE)
Alan Devonshire
Alessandro Volta
Bashkirov
Bouguereau
Bronze Cannon (USA)
Curtain Call (FR)
Feared In Flight (IRE)
Frozen Fire (GER)
Henrythenavigator (USA)
Ibn Khaldun (USA)
Kandahar Run
King of Rome (IRE)
Maidstone Mixture (FR)
Montmartre (FR)
New Approach (IRE)
Rio de La Plata (USA)
Ripple (FR)
Tajaaweed (USA)
Tartan Bearer (IRE)
Washington Irving (IRE)
Achill Island (IRE)
Alan Devonshire
Alessandro Volta
Bashkirov
Bouguereau
Bronze Cannon (USA)
Curtain Call (FR)
Feared In Flight (IRE)
Frozen Fire (GER)
Henrythenavigator (USA)
Ibn Khaldun (USA)
Kandahar Run
King of Rome (IRE)
Maidstone Mixture (FR)
Montmartre (FR)
New Approach (IRE)
Rio de La Plata (USA)
Ripple (FR)
Tajaaweed (USA)
Tartan Bearer (IRE)
Washington Irving (IRE)
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Now I'll admit my knowledge of pedigrees and breeding is severely limited but on a quick look at their recent ancestors, it seems to me that Henry has more chance of 12f. being his optimum trip than New Approach.
Perhaps Venusian and/or Steve Miller, or any other breeding guru on here, might like to put me straight on this.
Perhaps Venusian and/or Steve Miller, or any other breeding guru on here, might like to put me straight on this.
The problem with New Approach is not going or distance.
The horse is not in love with the game anymore, will be beaten in the irish Derby, then I imagine will run in blinkers back on 10f and will be beaten again.
He was a nice horse, I have him now on 123 but soon will be 123$
The horse is not in love with the game anymore, will be beaten in the irish Derby, then I imagine will run in blinkers back on 10f and will be beaten again.
He was a nice horse, I have him now on 123 but soon will be 123$
rorydelargy
At the Start
I'm no expert either Colin, but it's virtually impossible to come to the conclusion that New Approach won't stay better than Henrythenavigator based on pedigree alone, even after a cursory glance. It's perfectly possible that the latter will prove the better horse at a trip based on class alone but the pedigree clues are pretty obvious, even to a big thicko like myself.
Incidentally, what led you to your conclusion?
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Not sure if my logic will withstand expert analysis but here goes.
New Approach..................Dam sire a sprinter in Ahonoora, dam herself best at 8-10f., her best offspring was an 8-9f. horse and she bred the sprinter Shinko Forest.
Henrythenavigator...........Dam sire, Sadler's Wells (who he?), and his sister, Queen Cleopatra, appeared to be staying on when tried over 11.5 furlongs at Chantilly.
Pick away, Rory, I am genuinely in need of education on this point. :shy:
PS.............I think you may well be right, suny.
New Approach..................Dam sire a sprinter in Ahonoora, dam herself best at 8-10f., her best offspring was an 8-9f. horse and she bred the sprinter Shinko Forest.
Henrythenavigator...........Dam sire, Sadler's Wells (who he?), and his sister, Queen Cleopatra, appeared to be staying on when tried over 11.5 furlongs at Chantilly.
Pick away, Rory, I am genuinely in need of education on this point. :shy:
PS.............I think you may well be right, suny.
rorydelargy
At the Start
First thing's first Colin ~ both horses have sires as well as damsires so you should compare Galileo to Kingmambo as a first point in determining likely stamina. Kingmambo was a miler and tends to produce milers. It's true that he has produced a few classy runners who stay but they tend to come from stamina laden female lines, whereas Galileo is already proven as a sire of predominately middle distance winners.
The fact that Ahonoora was a sprinter is hardly relevant ~ he actually sired a Derby winner and many of his best offspring stayed well. Park Express btw wasn't best at 8-10f ~ she was considerably better suited by 10f than a mile and stayed 12f well (she won the Lancashire Oaks and was 2nd in the Yorkshire Oaks). The vast majority of her matings have been to sprinter/milers and the fact that she produced a sprinter when mated with Green Desert is hardly surprising as he is virtually only capable of injecting speed into his stock. Her product by the miler Warning stayed 10f well and it stands to reason that when mated to a stamina influence like Galileo, she should produce a horse which will stay at least a mile and a half. It's perfectly possible, as I say that New Approach's stamina will be compromised by his temperament but on breeding there is absolutely no reason why he wouldn't get the Derby trip.
Queen Cleopatra ran a decent race in the Prix de Diane, but that's only 10.5f, not 11.5 as you state and she never really proved her stamina ~ not only is Chantilly not the stamina test it might be but it proved to be one of the worst renewals of that race in living memory. It's genuinely doubtful whether Sequoyah really stayed 10f, never mind a mile and a half as she merely ran through beaten horses at the Curragh and then finished dead last in the Nassau on her only other start beyond a mile. Her only wins came at 7f.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Thanks for ripping my logic apart, Rory. :shy: I did say my breeding knowledge was sketchy, to say the least.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Pleasure Colin ~ as I said I'm no breeding expert and had to do some research from the RP's stallion stats to back up my original assumption.Originally posted by Colin Phillips@May 25 2008, 10:37 AM
I did say my breeding knowledge was sketchy, to say the least.
Rorydelargy's analysis is essentially correct, and New Approach is very likely, though not certain, to stay 12f, whereas Henry has no chance.
I might add that Ahonoora was an unusual stallion in that he passed on no particular stamina traits to his stock - they took all that from their dams. Ahonoora was very like Danehill and (going further back) Quorum in this respect. If you see Ahonoora in a pedigree, don't think "sprint influence".
I might add that Ahonoora was an unusual stallion in that he passed on no particular stamina traits to his stock - they took all that from their dams. Ahonoora was very like Danehill and (going further back) Quorum in this respect. If you see Ahonoora in a pedigree, don't think "sprint influence".
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Thanks, Ven.
Mind you, I am still having trouble accepting your assertion that Henry has no chance. shrug::
Mind you, I am still having trouble accepting your assertion that Henry has no chance. shrug::
Agreed - I'd blame the ground too for NA's showing yesterday, just hope it hasn't put him off the game
Henry on the other hand won his Coventry on G/F - interesting now to read the race report btw, which says he 'didn't look fully wound up' for it
I also wonder, given the two colts' respective seasons so far, whether they way they were campaigned at 2 has any bearing? I'm in favour of giving horses with a middle distance profile a light campaign at 2, whereas milers often thrive in their juvenile year.
NA had 5 races all at 7f, Henry 4 races of which 2 were at 6f, but he was put away after the Futurity in August whilst NA didn't start on track til July - but then was on the go all season at top level til October.
Not sure if this has any bearing, but NA doesn't seem quite the same horse this year. That may only be 'perception' due to Henry's having improved past him of course. I hope we see NA win again when he gets his ground and a bit further, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me. The ground was always going to favour one or other but not both of these two colts anyway in a Grade 1, as they like it so different.
DECISION TIME SOON ON HENRY
By Martin Kelly, PA Sport
The Ballydoyle team responsible for dual 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator are likely to make a decision regarding his participation in the Vodafone Derby in the next seven days.
Aidan O'Brien's Kingmambo colt supplemented his victory in the English Classic with another success over Jim Bolger's New Approach in the Boylesports-sponsored Irish version at the Curragh on Saturday.
"He's perfect and seemed fine this morning," said O'Brien.
"This will be the week that we sort out the Derby horses, but Kingdom of Naples won't be one of them.
"We had a few things go through him so we've had to back off and he'll be back in the autumn."
Henrythenavigator is now as short as 7-2 with Coral for the Derby and owner John Magnier has confirmed it will be a joint decision as to whether he lines up.
Magnier said: "Ultimately, it'll be John Halley (vet), Aidan, Johnny Murtagh and all the lads who'll get together and decide.
"They'll give me their opinions and we'll see after that.
"I don't decide but if you ask me what I'd like to do I'd say that Epsom is where everything is decided. When the horse was bred, he was bred to go there - he's by Kingmambo and out of a Sadler's Wells mare.
"We've taken horses to Epsom before who shouldn't have gone there and they've run well, but we've also taken horses there who we thought would run well and they haven't.
"I'm not ruling the Derby out, but I wouldn't go and tell someone to back him either."
By Martin Kelly, PA Sport
The Ballydoyle team responsible for dual 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator are likely to make a decision regarding his participation in the Vodafone Derby in the next seven days.
Aidan O'Brien's Kingmambo colt supplemented his victory in the English Classic with another success over Jim Bolger's New Approach in the Boylesports-sponsored Irish version at the Curragh on Saturday.
"He's perfect and seemed fine this morning," said O'Brien.
"This will be the week that we sort out the Derby horses, but Kingdom of Naples won't be one of them.
"We had a few things go through him so we've had to back off and he'll be back in the autumn."
Henrythenavigator is now as short as 7-2 with Coral for the Derby and owner John Magnier has confirmed it will be a joint decision as to whether he lines up.
Magnier said: "Ultimately, it'll be John Halley (vet), Aidan, Johnny Murtagh and all the lads who'll get together and decide.
"They'll give me their opinions and we'll see after that.
"I don't decide but if you ask me what I'd like to do I'd say that Epsom is where everything is decided. When the horse was bred, he was bred to go there - he's by Kingmambo and out of a Sadler's Wells mare.
"We've taken horses to Epsom before who shouldn't have gone there and they've run well, but we've also taken horses there who we thought would run well and they haven't.
"I'm not ruling the Derby out, but I wouldn't go and tell someone to back him either."
by Tony Elves
AN impressive workout by Tajaaweed on Racecourse Side on Wednesday morning was enough to have bookmakers running for cover and the Dee Stakes winner is now a general 6-1 chance for the Vodafone Derby at Epsom on June 7.
Tajaaweed was reunited with Richard Hills for his workout on the across the flat gallop that rode perfect after overnight rain, and the turn of foot he showed when zipping at least ten lengths clear of Tanweer was enough to get the dogs barking.
Totesport, VCBet and William Hill cut the Dynaformer colt to 6-1 (from 8), whilst Coral went 13-2. Ladbrokes are now a standout 7-1.
Angus Gold, racing manager to Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, attempting to put the workout into perspective said: “He appeared to work well and Richard was very happy with the horse and he gave him a nice feel but he was only with a lead horse.”
Sir Michael Stoute had his three Derby contenders on show with Doctor Fremantle (Kerrin McEvoy) going through his paces with Gulf Express (Katy Reed) while Tartan Bearer (Ryan Moore) – although not as impressive as Tajaaweed – forged three clear.
Another who has Epsom on the agenda is the Henry Cecil-trained Kandahar Run who also excelled in his work under Ted Durcan.
The Rock Of Gibraltar colt was worked over 11 furlongs and went well clear of his lead horse in a manner which suggests the Epsom trip will hold no fears.
Cecil said: “Hopefully he will run in the Derby, he is good order and worked nicely. He's nice and relaxed and gives the impression he will get the trip. I feel he's getting there and he's not going to make up the numbers - I feel he's going there with a chance.”
Coral has announced that, from Thursday, it will be offering the “non-runner no-bet” concession on bets placed on the Derby and the Oaks in an attempt to stimulate ante post betting turnover on both races.
“The level of ante post betting on both the Derby and Oaks is significantly down on previous years and this is almost entirely down to the doubts concerning several leading contenders for both races,” said Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.
“It is the first time ever that 'non-runner no-bet' has been offered on the Epsom Classics at such an early stage. However ante-post betting has all but stagnated in the last few days so we are offering this popular concession in an effort to give punters the incentive and confidence to start placing their bets”, added Clare.
CurtainCall will be galloping on ground described as soft, good to soft in places on Thursday morning when he heads to Epsom for their annual Breakfast with the Stars event.
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said on Wednesday afternoon: "We have had 13mm of rain overnight and the ground is officially soft with some good to soft areas. There is a chance we could get another shower but it should predominantly stay dry."
AN impressive workout by Tajaaweed on Racecourse Side on Wednesday morning was enough to have bookmakers running for cover and the Dee Stakes winner is now a general 6-1 chance for the Vodafone Derby at Epsom on June 7.
Tajaaweed was reunited with Richard Hills for his workout on the across the flat gallop that rode perfect after overnight rain, and the turn of foot he showed when zipping at least ten lengths clear of Tanweer was enough to get the dogs barking.
Totesport, VCBet and William Hill cut the Dynaformer colt to 6-1 (from 8), whilst Coral went 13-2. Ladbrokes are now a standout 7-1.
Angus Gold, racing manager to Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, attempting to put the workout into perspective said: “He appeared to work well and Richard was very happy with the horse and he gave him a nice feel but he was only with a lead horse.”
Sir Michael Stoute had his three Derby contenders on show with Doctor Fremantle (Kerrin McEvoy) going through his paces with Gulf Express (Katy Reed) while Tartan Bearer (Ryan Moore) – although not as impressive as Tajaaweed – forged three clear.
Another who has Epsom on the agenda is the Henry Cecil-trained Kandahar Run who also excelled in his work under Ted Durcan.
The Rock Of Gibraltar colt was worked over 11 furlongs and went well clear of his lead horse in a manner which suggests the Epsom trip will hold no fears.
Cecil said: “Hopefully he will run in the Derby, he is good order and worked nicely. He's nice and relaxed and gives the impression he will get the trip. I feel he's getting there and he's not going to make up the numbers - I feel he's going there with a chance.”
Coral has announced that, from Thursday, it will be offering the “non-runner no-bet” concession on bets placed on the Derby and the Oaks in an attempt to stimulate ante post betting turnover on both races.
“The level of ante post betting on both the Derby and Oaks is significantly down on previous years and this is almost entirely down to the doubts concerning several leading contenders for both races,” said Simon Clare, Coral Spokesman.
“It is the first time ever that 'non-runner no-bet' has been offered on the Epsom Classics at such an early stage. However ante-post betting has all but stagnated in the last few days so we are offering this popular concession in an effort to give punters the incentive and confidence to start placing their bets”, added Clare.
CurtainCall will be galloping on ground described as soft, good to soft in places on Thursday morning when he heads to Epsom for their annual Breakfast with the Stars event.
Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said on Wednesday afternoon: "We have had 13mm of rain overnight and the ground is officially soft with some good to soft areas. There is a chance we could get another shower but it should predominantly stay dry."