The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

maythehorsebewithyou said:
Are most people in the camp that it'll be Sea The Stars whatever tactics Coolmore throw at the race? I certainly am.
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It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if STS didn't line up here. Oxx appears to think there is more downside than upside to him running in this. He'll likely use the least bit of juice in the finishing straight to pull him out.

With a fast pace and some give Fame would be a live opponent. There appears to be support for Fame (I backed him myself yesterday), although that's probably due to Murtagh's fairly bullish statements. Fame would obviously go very short if STS failed to make the line up.
 
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The Eclipse is looking like much the better option for him at this stage, and seems Oxx is swaying that way. I guess it all depends on the showers received in the next couple of days. I'd imagine he could be undecided the morning of the race.

After all the debate, i'd actually quite like him to run in the Irish Derby given good, fast ground.

Why did they water if there were showers forecast? It looks to me like they are aiming for ground on the slow side of good.
 
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I'd back both Ballydoyle chances now, what with the doubts about Sea the Stars, or back one and cover your stake on the other.
 
If the showers do not materialise, and if they had not watered...the ground would have been Firm by race day. It would have been similar to the Irish 2000 Guineas ground which was not suitable either. They should stop watering now and leave it to the elements from here on in.

The Curragh usually do a pretty good job with their watering so I will wait and see how it rides tomorrow.
 
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Galileo said:
If the showers do not materialise, and if they had not watered...the ground would have been Firm by race day. It would have been similar to the Irish 2000 Guineas ground which was not suitable either. They should stop watering now and leave it to the elements from here on in.

The Curragh usually do a pretty good job with their watering so I will wait and see how it rides tomorrow.
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But they were forecast! What is stopping them waiting until the day before and watering then if necessary?

Do you mean last year's Irish 2000 Guineas?
 
Hamm said:
But they were forecast!
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From Paul Hensey:

“We had temperatures up to 24 degrees today and a nice easterly breeze. We watered the straight course for about 40 minutes, which prevent it drying out too much. The forecast is similar for tomorrow and a decision will be made in the morning as to whether to water the round course tomorrow. There is the possibility of an odd shower on Friday but there are chances they will be further south and may not reach us. Saturday and Sunday are expected to be dry, although a bit cloudy. Our aim is to provide safe, good to firm ground on both tracks. We’ll decide after racing on Friday and Saturday whether there’s a need to water to maintain the ground as it is”
 
Oxx, for all that he is a cautious man, seems a particularly honest one. Im would tend to believe his going description rather than the clerk of the course, though I of course have no factual reason for this.
 
Hamm said:
Oxx, for all that he is a cautious man, seems a particularly honest one. Im would tend to believe his going description rather than the clerk of the course, though I of course have no factual reason for this.
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That is true enough, but as Oxx says himself, each of the horse's runs are now hugely important to his value. So if Oxx can pressure the clerk of the course to put on as little water as possible, he like most other trainers, will do so. I think he will line up.
 
By Ashley Iveson, PA Sport

John Oxx admits no decision on the participation of Sea The Stars in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby is likely to be made until Saturday afternoon at the earliest.
Oxx is keen to let his stable star bid for more Classic glory at the Curragh on Sunday but while the colt is likely to be declared for the race, the weather will decide whether he takes his chance or not.
"The ground on the round course until you get to the straight is good to firm, but when you come off the hill into the straight it is just genuine good ground," said Oxx.
"It's fine at the moment and I think most people would be happy with the ground as it stands, but from our point of view the forecast has changed and there is an increased risk of showers tonight and tomorrow.
"There could be some showers over the weekend also but there is a lesser risk on Sunday. We'll just have to wait and see how much rain falls, how heavy the showers are and what effect it has.
"The ground would be fairly receptive to rain as there is quite a bit of moisture in the ground.
"We would be hopeful we would be OK but the chance of heavy showers is there.
"We'll make a final decision when we can make it and I'd imagine we'll declare him tomorrow. I think on Sunday morning we'll know if we're out of the woods or not.
"Once we get Saturday out of the way we could be in a position to make a decision.
"I suppose at the end of racing on Saturday I would hope we'll know what the situation is as I would not like to be leaving it until the last minute.
"I'd like it to be perfectly good for us or much too soft. It's what is in between that trainers don't like.
"I would hope our chances are better than 50-50 but it's in the lap of the gods really and you just don't know what is going to happen."
 
I'll be amazed if Sea the Stars doesn't run at the Curragh, we are having another hot sunny day with a drying wind. It will take more than a few showers to really alter the going now.
 
chroniclandlord said:
I'll be amazed if Sea the Stars doesn't run at the Curragh, we are having another hot sunny day with a drying wind. It will take more than a few showers to really alter the going now.
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Although STS will probably take his chance if getting his ideal conditions, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Oxx were to seize on the least reason not to run him, given he seems loath to expose the colt to the chance of being beaten by those he beat at Epsom. Oxx seems to favour races like the Eclipse for him (which is probably right).
 
I'd be very surprised if he didn't run if the weather forecasts are accurate.

Oxx's hesitancy to commit the colt due to the ground is interesting in itself; despite the fact that he is almost certainly best on fast ground (his action suggests so anyway), he has proven he at leasts acts with cut in the ground (was yielding the day he won the Beresford). Oxx wasn't sure by any means whether he would get the trip before Epsom and I wouldn't be surprised if he still harbours a fair stamina doubt, given the stiffer test he is likely to face whatever the ground.

Certainly seems a more plausible reason than Oxx 'ducking' the race for other reasons.
 
I think it's mostly down to how he performed when he was training on soft over the spring.

Remember, he wasn't going to run him in the Guineas if it came up soft.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Sorry, but if Oxx didn't want to run him he'd just not run him and he'd have said so by now.
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I get the feeling that he'd rather not run him unless he gets his ideal conditions (and even then he doesn't appear absolutely sure) and I think he has, more or less, said just this.
 
Haven't had access to the RP site today. But I saw this is up when I got home. Seems the STS's participation is still far from certain. Pleased I've availed myself of 4/1 and 7/2 about Fame.

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CONNECTIONS of Sea The Stars on Friday warned that a decision over the dual Classic winner's participation in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby may be left until as late as Sunday morning.

The Investec Derby winner touched even-money on Betfair on Thursday afternoon amidst speculation that trainer John Oxx might scratch his star colt from the Curragh Classic, despite saying he was happy with the ground after walking the track that morning.


Consequently principle market rival Fame And Glory was further backed, with Skybet going as short as 2-1 for the Ballydoyle colt to claim his own Classic, having finished runner-up to Sea The Stars at Epsom.
Oxx said: "I found the ground to be very good in the straight and good to firm on the round course. As it is, the ground is fine for Sea The Stars, but the forecast has changed and instead of it being unlikely that showers will hit the Curragh, it is now most likely that there will be showers in the area tonight and on Friday.
"Depending on whether those showers arrive and, if they do, whether they are heavy or prolonged, the ground in the straight could be altered easily enough. Sea The Stars will be declared on Friday morning and we will see what happens with the weather. It could be as late as Sunday morning before a decision is made."
Derby third Masterofthehorse was cut half a point to 7-2 by Boylesports on Thursday after it was confirmed that SeamieHeffernan will ride the son of Sadler's Wells on Sunday.
 
I agree EC1 and I hope he is sent to the Eclipse, which it seems the best option for the horse by far.

In the meantime: The owner of Europe's best three-year-old this season, Sea The Stars, has put potential buyers on hold while his superbly bred galloper cements his racing credentials.

Hong Kong-based Christopher Tsui was responding to reports from England that Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum, of Darley Stud, had expressed an interest in buying Sea The Stars during an interview at Royal Ascot last week.
"Without being specific, there have been quite a number of individuals and organisations who have expressed interest in Sea The Stars as a stallion prospect," Tsui said.
"The family has decided that no negotiations will take place about his stud career until his racing career is complete."
Sea The Stars became the first three-year-old since the great Nashwan in 1989 to win the 2000 Guineas and the Derby on June 6, and he holds an entry for Sunday's Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby as well.
However, the colt is only a 50-50 chance of running since trainer John Oxx walked the track at the Curragh and found it "not good-to-firm". "The straight course is still a bit of a worry," Oxx told Racing Post (UK). "It is on the dead side of good, which is not ideal It is not good to firm, as the racecourse seems to be calling it.
"The weather is warm but it's also humid and there is not much wind so the course is not drying very quickly. It won't take a lot of rain for it to go against us, and we won't run if it is on the slow side of good on Sunday."
Oxx said Sea The Stars had reached a standard that requires conditions to suit for him to run anywhere.
"We'd be disappointed not to take part," he said. "But we have to be fair to the horse. His reputation is on the line every time he runs."
Tsui said should Oxx recommend against running in the Irish Derby, the fall-back position would be the Coral Eclipse Stakes at Sandown on July 4 - a race also won by Nashwan 20 years ago.
Some observers believe Oxx has a preference for the Eclipse, at the shorter distance of 10 furlongs (about 2,000m) rather than the 12 furlongs of the Irish Derby (about 2,400m) because the youngster's stamina was not properly tested at Epsom, and he is by a former sprinter in Cape Cross.
Either way, however, the Tsui family has a goldmine on its hands.
Sea The Stars is the latest topliner from the family's 1993 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Urban Sea, who had already produced the 2001 Epsom Derby winner Galileo as well as Group One winners Black Sam Bellamy and My Typhoon.
 
Raining right now and Sea The Stars is a most unlikely runner now on Sunday.

Ground Good To Yielding on the straight and Good on the round course.
 
Rain has eased off now but they had 12mls overnight. Forecast is dry and warm for the rest of the week so maybe there is still hope.
 
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