The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Warbler said:
It implies to me that he decided to ride it in his own mind, and then talked himself out of it, and has come back to it again. I think all he's doing is articulating is his own internal deliberations
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That's possible I suppose. Although he now seems pretty adamant Fame is the one.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Remind me, what's the evidence that they tried to set the Derby up for Rip Van Winkle again?
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It looks pretty clear that this is what took place and AOB has said nothing to disabuse us of this notion.

Added to which we have Murtagh’s declared soft spot for RVW. That none of the Ballydoyle six attempted to stretch them. That SH was so very annoyed at his riding orders. That racing analysts questioned the tactics were counter to the chances of virtually all of the Ballydoyle team, bar RVW. That Ballydoyle are not naïve about the tactics they wish to employ.
 
I never saw any quote where Heffernan expressed annoyance/frustration at his riding orders, just that he would ride the race differently if he had a chance again. Where did you see this?
 
SteveM said:
"Sticking" with a horse implies to me that he's been on it one of the last couple of times its appeared. He's only been up for one career start so far.
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That's incorrect. He won a Group 1 on him last year and a Group 3 on him this year. He missed the Derrinstown because he was in France for the Group 1 Guineas. He's only chosen another horse in a race over him once, at Epsom.
 
Euronymous said:
If they go a decent clip I can see F&G giving him much more to think about. The stiff track is right down his street.
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its pure guesswork though Euronymous imo

its 50/50 if STS will be suited to this test..and i don't see any criterion to measure it to any point of real confidence

its a no bet race for me...the only reason anyone can fancy F&G to reverse it is blind faith in the horse

i wouldn't be chasing epsom losses if i had been on F&G that is for sure

F&G in the Leger..a different story..tailormade for the horse..but not for connections
 
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We have seen Ballydoyle horses little improve hand over fist from their Epsom exploits. They go to Epsom to win of course....but also very much use the race as a spring board for the rest of the season. Dylan Thomas, Peeping Fawn, Frozen Fire, Soldier Of Fortune all proved to be a different manner of beast at The Curragh compared to the ones that turned up at Epsom.

Risking going over old debate again -The race at Epsom was run to suit Sea The Stars, but also and just as importantly completely against a horse like Fame And Glory. Again watch the race, Sea The Stars makes his two length break on Fame And Glory at just under the two furlong marker...he does not actually extend the distance at any point from there on to the line. It was that initial turn of foot that he had in that race that won him the day, Fame And Glory on the other hand does not have the instant acceleration for a race such as the one run at Epsom. He cannot quicken against a horse like STS in a slowly run race that Epsom was.

Sea The Stars is certainly the one to beat and a deserved favourite...but I expect a huge run from Fame And Glory on Sunday. A huge one.
 
I think his price right now (around the 3/1) mark is fair enough..... I wouldnt lump on him given he could be running into an absolute world beater.

At Epsom Sea The Stars had everything fall into place for him, there is every chance he could have won it regardless of how things fell for him....but on Sunday he will have to prove it in a race where his main rivals are likely to get the race run in the usual staying style.

I'd imagine the couple of pacemakers will head off with Fame And Glory tracking them at such a distance that Sea The Stars cannot sit off them like he did at Epsom. Masterofthehorse will be ridden the same way as at Epsom I would have thought.
 
Gal, do you think they might overdo the pace with say 2 pacemakers and Fame and Glory in thrid, something vaguely resembling what happened in the BC Turf last year.
 
I can see that scenario playing out Galileo, I hope it does, so we can get a definate answer about STS staying a true 12f

I will pray the rain keeps away, lets hope it goes ahead
 
Gareth Flynn said:
With Gan Amhras, it comes down to:

a) Can you completely ignore his Epsom run? Was it too bad to be true? Was it entirely down to him not handling the track?
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Consensus seems to be that he failed to handle Epsom (although tellingly perhaps the RP's race notes don't mention this). However, it seems to be the opinion of Malcolm Heyhoe in the Weekender.

"Jim Bolger's 2000 Guineas runner fourth refused to settle and was also unsuited by the turning track. Returned to a more conventional track he should do better".

Well if I were going to quibble, it's difficult to imagine him doing much worse than 11th of 12 in honesty so 'doing better' is a definate possibility I'd say Malc, and to the best of my recollection he came third in the Guineas by 2.25L's, not fourth, but hey what the hell.

So just why did Gan Amhras bomb out at Epsom? I don't know. :p The dark art of dosage suggested he was always a Derby horse and that the Guineas would be too sharp for him;

4 - 0 - 11 - 5 - 2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.05

seems to indicate that his pedigree points towards 12F's +.

The ground doesn't appear to have been an issue riding +1.82 at Newmarket and +2.39 at Epsom.

Trainer form?, well Bolger's had a few higher profile types disappoint in the UK and France but his record in the last 30 days looks like 8 wins and 15 places from 53 runners, so 15% win, and 43% win and place, wouldn't seem like cause to fire the distress flares over the stable just yet.

So right now the notion that he just ran a clunker at Epsom, or was done by the track seems as plausible as any.

Now it's often said that horse X failed to act on the track where Epsom is concerned, so I thought I'd try and crawl back through the RP for such time as I can, and try and identify horses noted as not handling the track and see what happened to them NTO. Well it transpired that it wasn't that straight forward. Some of the race notes leave a little bit open to interpretation, whilst others were simply reporting jockey comments. Then there were those horses noted as hanging. Does this mean they were undone by the camber? or does it mean they were showing the signs of a hard race? In any event I decided to break then down into 'race-readers' comments, and 'jockeys' comments.

Race- Reader comments

Frozen Fire - "Evidently failed to handle the hill" - Won the Irish Derby NTO 16/1
Archipenko - "lost his action coming down the hill" - 7th in the Eclipse
Mahler - "Trouble rounding Tattenham Corner" - Won the Queens Vase NTO 7/1
Papal Bull - "Didn't come down the hill well" - Won the Edward VII NTO 5/4
Percussionist - "connections entitled to expect better back on a more conventional track" - (not sure what this really means? but he came last of 10 at The Curragh)
Rule of Law - "Hung left and took time to be straightend, stumbled momentarily 1F from home" - 4th at the Curragh, though went on to win the Voltiger and Leger
Refuse to Bend - "The track and ground might have been factors but perhaps there was something else amiss" -
It doesn't sound too sure to be honest? but; Won a Listed race NTO 8/11
Bandari - "came under pressure coming down the hill and was soon back-pedalling" - Won the Gordon Stks NTO 15/8
Inchlanoig - "Did not appear to come down the hill well" - came last NTO at Nad Al Sheba
Dilshaan - "All three will be capable of better (included Perfect Sunday and Storming Home) off a stronger pace and more conventional track". - Now Dilshaan never raced again, where as Storming Home Won the Edward VII at 9/2

Jockey Comments

Fracas - "rider reported he was not handling the track" - J Spencer - 7th of 9 NTO at the Curragh. My own memory of it would have been more like 'rider made a complete hash of the job getting himself too far back at Tattenham, before horse flattered him making up late ground'.
The Geezer - "Rider reported he did not handle the track" - R Quinn - 3rd NTO, though did win a listed race and the Gordon Stks after that
Kong - "Reported he did not handle the race" - In my book we call this 'not good enough'!!!!
Summerland - "rider reported he did not handle the track" - J Fortune - 3rd NTO in the Edwrad VII 25/1
Perfect Sunday - "Rider felt his mount was unsuited by the track" R. Hughes - 2nd NTO GP de St Cloud 34/10
Beat Hollow - "Richard Quinn is adamant he will be better suited by the Curragh than Epsom and judging my the way the colt dived out to the far rail he's probably right" - we'll never know of course, as the horse went to Longchamp instead!!!. Richard Quinn might be the only jockey to have the distinction of appearing twice in the gallery of 'track blamers', but he does at least have the distinction of being the only one whose mount subsequently triumphed NTO (albeit at a different venue to the one he nominated). Won the GP de Paris at 7/5
Zaajer - "rider reported he did not handle the track . And so too did Salford City" - P Eddery and R Hills - the horses came 6th and 5th NTO
Saffrron Walden - "his rider indicated that the track was as bigger problem as the trip" - M Kinane- 2nd NTO at the Currgah

Now it's difficult not to draw a distinction between those horses noted by race watchers as not appearing to be suited by the track, and those noted by beaten jockeys!!!! On balance though quite a few of the jockeys excuses were subsequently backed up by placed efforts, or improved performances, but they enjoyed nothing like the 'win S/R' that the race-readers did. The Edward VII has been a popular consolation prize, as has the Gordon Stakes for seemingly unsuited Epsom sorts, but the Curragh hasn't been off the rader either, with 1 win and 1 place from 5 efforts (though quite whether Percussionist is a qualifier is doubtful).

In recent times Soldier of Fortune and Frozen Fire have both put Epsom dissapointment behind them to go on and triumph at the Curragh, but even so, it's still a rare achievement. In fact it's probably just as likely (and I'm indebted to Alistair Whitehouse-Jones of the Weekender) that an unplaced horse who was all wrong at Epsom but has an excuse and thus represents somehting of an unknown quantity will oblige, rather than one who placed and has shown his hand when they're required to reoppose their Epsom conqueror. 1992 was the last time it was reversed when St Jovite turned the tables on Dr Devious.

I can't see Gan Amhras winning, and to do so one suspects he's going to require the others to 'lose it' but he's bred for the trip, must have some tactical speed having placed in what's turning into a decent Guineas, and seems to have been missed at a price. Now backing any horse ante-post with his trainer; a man who seems to have all the personal sincerity of Pinnochio constitutes a risk, but half of me's wondering if he can't creep through. My doubt however, is that he wouldn't qualify on the line of investigation I've used for profiling horses whose excuse seems to revolve around the course of Epsom rather than anything else!!! He wasn't mentioned in the RP's race notes as being unsuited by the track!!!! Doh...... but if Malcolm Heyhoe has mentioned it, then hey, who am I to argue, and in fairness some pretty fair observers have also offered this as an explanation, so if we strike a line through it, then he looks a decent outsider.
 
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Strike one for the race readers; impressive list there. Was anything mentioned for Oratorio's performance? He came out and did ok...
 
No suggetsion that the track was the issue, which of course is what you're trying to profile if you're going down the Gan Amhras route. It points to the race-readers being vindicated when they spot a horse struggling to give his best at Epsom, but the comments are a bit and miss. I thought Septimus might have made it for instance. They also point to jockeys blaming horses for less than judicious rides too. Like I said though, the RP's comments don't note Gan Amhras as such, and Bolger seems to be attributing it to the horse not handling the occasion. That probably means he'll be ponied 20 minutes early, but a few of the Ballydoyle contingent looked to be sweating (perhaps they were worried about Aidan's forthcoming fine as he was cutting it so late?). It only really dawned on me about a minute before the off that Sea The Stars was going to win, so well he had taken the prelims, but by then the money was down. I wouldn't have thought the Curraghs going to have quite the razzmatazz of Epsom though, so perhaps a few more might reach post in a better state of mind
 
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Percussionist got injured at the Curragh, I think. At any rate he finished a furlong behind the rest, so it's fair to count him as a non-qualifier.

A remarkable list, it's almost as if having a bad experience at Epsom does a horse good!
 
Well if we're talking in terms of qualifiers than I'm afraid we have to do the same to Gan Amhras, however, if you are of the opinion that it was 'da track dat dun 'im' then you'd seem to have some hope. You probably need Timeform in fairness as I'm sure they're better, and can be profiled more accurately to look for comments that can help you isolate horses who seemingly had their true ability concealed by an inability to handle Epsom
 
John Oxx is publicly disagreeing with the clerk of the course at the Curragh. He doesn't think the ground in the straight is the reported Good To Firm, calling it on the "dead side of good".
 
The ground is officially "Good" on the straight course and "Good To Firm" on the round course. As far as I know they have finished their watering on the straight course....updated this morning.
 
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So they're now in line with what John Oxx thought of it yesterday, and with some rain expected over Friday and Saturday, is it really going to get any faster?
 
It is another warm and sunny morning today....perhaps not as warm as yesterday. The forecast is for showers....could easily get very little.
 
Narcotic Nora said:
That's incorrect. He won a Group 1 on him last year and a Group 3 on him this year. He missed the Derrinstown because he was in France for the Group 1 Guineas. He's only chosen another horse in a race over him once, at Epsom.
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Quite right... don't know why I said career start, should have said seasonal start.
 
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