The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

By Racing Post Staff4.41PM 26 JUN 2009
FOLLOWING 12 millimetres of rainfall on Thursday night, the Curragh issued a more positive report for backers of Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby favourite Sea The Stars on Friday afternoon.
Trainer John Oxx has expressed concerns about conditions becoming too soft for his dual Classic winner, but with the sun shining at the Curragh, the groundis drying out.
On Thursday the track changed the going to good to yielding in places, but on Friday afternoon Paul Hensey, the Curragh's racecourse manager, said: "It has been a nice day, the sun is shining and the ground is drying.
"The forecast is for lovely weather on both Saturday and Sunday. Obviously it will be John's decision whether he wants to run.
"We're in the lap of the gods, but we'd be really hopeful the forecast is accurate."
 
seems bizarre this..I thought they watered for true fast ground..so why has it been watered down to good so that a bit of rain has changed it to yielding?

if two days dry weather Sat & Sun doesn't make it good ground after it was apparently good to firm a couple of days ago..the clerk wants his tits feeling

All this raises another question...how good is STS if he needs such exact conditions? Is it really such a good advert for him at stud that he needs such set conditions?

If Oxx is so afraid he doesn't stay then just drop him back to 10f...save a lot of this sort of thing...he is making the horse look really precious in a way.

I understand its not easy when you have a horse like this..but for me..I wouldn't risk him losing through lack of stamina...if he can thrape off a few 10f wins no problem.


as a punter..I want him there on Sunday..but looking at it from the other side..I wouldn't run him.
 
I'd be pretty confident STS will run at the Curragh. Tough luck on those of you who wanted to see him at Sandown.

Btw, I reckon what Johnny Murtagh meant when talking about 'sticking with ' Fame and Glory is that he is sticking with the ranking of the O'Brien runners as established at Epsom. Putting Heffernan and O'Donoghue on the Epsom 3rd and 4th respectively would seem to back this view.
 
EC1 said:
seems bizarre this..I thought they watered for true fast ground..so why has it been watered down to good so that a bit of rain has changed it to yielding?

if two days dry weather Sat & Sun doesn't make it good ground after it was apparently good to firm a couple of days ago..the clerk wants his tits feeling

All this raises another question...how good is STS if he needs such exact conditions? Is it really such a good advert for him at stud that he needs such set conditions?

If Oxx is so afraid he doesn't stay then just drop him back to 10f...save a lot of this sort of thing...he is making the horse look really precious in a way.

I understand its not easy when you have a horse like this..but for me..I wouldn't risk him losing through lack of stamina...if he can thrape off a few 10f wins no problem.


as a punter..I want him there on Sunday..but looking at it from the other side..I wouldn't run him.
Click to expand...

It is a bit of a pantomime isn’t it. But they’re valuable commodities and need everything their own way to justify the hype. He’s already done what Nashwan did 20 years ago and Nijinsky almost the same before that. So now it’s a case of don’t lose at all costs and there may well be other races he’s more certain of winning. They’re not too concerned about us wanting to see a race.
 
Well the early race times from today (unless they've been doing something with the course set up) points to quick ground.

In fact, at a cursory glance, they look very fast.... suspiciously fast
 
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i don't know whether thats good or bad Warbler..if its quick..watering..if its slow..will it dry?

Does it dry quick here?

I understand it all Steve but can't help wondering if i want a china doll as a breeding stock..which this sort of ..will he won't here.. carry on could imply
 
:lol:

Worked it out.

The RP had put Doncaster's results up as the Curragh's, (put it right now) mind you I've just had a 20 minute crash and things haven't been running smoothly. It's 'Firm' at Doncaster in case anyone's going to tomorrow

Let us know if this rain arrives won't you Aidan? Curiously this lot seems to be comign from the Irish Sea rather than the normal west to east system we get off the Atlantic. It's not so much what falls I guess but how it gnaws away at Oxx
 
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Oxx just been on ATR and seems to be of the opinion it'll take a miracle for the ground to dry out enough now. Hopefully get to see him at Sandown now then.

Also, can't fault how long he spent on the interview in the parade ring with ATR.
 
I think he's a fundamentally courteous and decent man, it's that simple. That radar updates in real time every 15 mins and there's still more to come, about 3 hours atleast looking at the stuff that's coming in behind it. It stretches from the Lleyn Peninsula right on a direct path to the Curragh.

Sea The Stars will been seen next time out at Sandown after all
 
The 4/1 on Fame is looking good whether STS runs or not now. They had also been talking about the possibility of heavy showers on Saturday earlier in the week. From RP website:

RAIN at the Curragh on Friday evening led to the official ground description being changed for the second time in the space of a few hours, and the update to soft going on all tracks from yielding casts increasing doubt on the participation of Sea The Stars in Sunday's Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.
The ground in the straight was changed to yielding from good to yielding before the rain started to fall and then to soft moments before the second race on Friday's evening card, causing a flood of withdrawals for later races at the meeting.

Before the second going change John Oxx, trainer of Sea The Stars, said: "We've been planning to wait until Sunday morning to decide whether Sea The Stars will run and we may still do so. But we could certainly have done without the rain that has fallen this evening on top of the 12 millimetres we had overnight.

"We will see what the morning brings and if the ground is gone beyond recall for Sea The Stars then a decision might be brought forward to tomorrow."
At 6.36pm Sea The Stars, who heads a list of 13 final declarations for the Classic, was last matched at 2.52 in the Irish Derby market on the exchanges.
 
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with the way the Irish weather is, I cant believe watering took place - The Curragh should be commended on their work in publicising this year's Derby, but such a shame if its without its star!
 
Well with 5 races in, I've got it at -2.93 off quite a tight spread too, which is probably equivilant of something like Soft, Good to Soft. It looks like there's more rain heading there (unless it breaks up over the Irish Sea) and with racing due tomorrow the ground has to cut up a bit.

It might go good yet, but I can't see them getting the Good to Firm that he reckons he needs to get the trip properly. Gan Amhras at 16/1 for a quarter of the odds with Stan James doesn't look too bad to me. Sea The Stars is nudging evens now with the offices and if 50% of the likely winner doesn't run, then there has to be some each way steals lying around at bigish prices for the next few hours
 
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With Sea The Stars a doubtful runner, does the much touted pace debate cease to be relevant?

I think Golden Sword is brought right back into play now and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the pacemakers are non runners.
 
Well I finally brought it out at -2.98 (which means something to me at least)

As a crude rule of thumb Good ground tends to cease at -1.25, Good to Soft is about -2.75 and spot on Soft is -3.75. Heavy starts at about -5.50 I reckon (on this scale I've sort of grown used to).

-1.25 = Good ends
-2.75 = G/S
-2.98 = Tonights variance
-3.75 = Soft
-5.50 = Heavy

Slower side of G/S I reckon


I think the Guineas timed out at +1.82 and the Derby at +2.39, and reckon that Good ends at about +1.75 before various grades of the word 'Firm' gets introduced. I'd forecast it to be about -0.50 come Sunday, which I can't see being palatable to Oxx, nor an owner who probably doesn't have any particular emotional attachment to the Irish Derby. I detect that Oxx wants to run, but equally feel he'll let his head rule his heart and won't be suckered by a CoC declaring 'Good' (which he will be doing on Saturday night).

Half of me reckons the Clerk is secretly praying for a deluge so that his decision to water is redndered superfluous otherwise he could have some explaining to do as to why he's effectively driven an Irish wonder horse off to Surrey
 
Just before racing yesterday there was a half hour of heavy heavy rain....a real shame. Absolutely stunning day today....very warm.
 
Had we missed that shower yesterday evening I think he definitely would have lined up. Cannot see it being fast enough now.
 
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