The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Galileo said:
The more I look at the race the sweeter I am getting on Gan Amhras.
Click to expand...

I backed up with hard cash what I said in the Guineas thread: anyone who fancied GA for the Guineas has to back it for the Derby, which I did on Saturday morning.
 
John Oxx did a very relaxed interview with Gareth O'Brien at Gowran the other day. I get the feeling that Mourayan has come on a ton since the Ballysax.
 
Sheikh said:
John Oxx did a very relaxed interview with Gareth O'Brien at Gowran the other day. I get the feeling that Mourayan has come on a ton since the Ballysax.
Click to expand...

When has Oxx ever been anything but relaxed particularl after winning a Guineas the day before!!

I do not see any reason why Mourayan should reverse form. Given it was only his third run last time, carried a penalty and the Ballydoyle horses themselves are not exactly primed first time of asking.
 
Last edited:
Galileo said:
When has Oxx ever been anything but relaxed particularl after winning a Guineas the day before!!

I do not see any reason why Mourayan should reverse form. Given it was only his third run last time, carried a penalty and the Ballydoyle horses themselves are not exactly primed first time of asking.
Click to expand...

I have been studying Mr Oxx's modus operandi for some time. You have stated before that you do not think that Mourayan can improve past Fag, fair enough. I saw the two of them on the day and Fag was pretty straight that day. Mourayan was not. The race was also run to suit Fag where I believe Mourayan was just getting an educational. I marginally prefer Mourayan over Fag on a hunch, although I do believe Fag won't be far away in the Derby,Mourayan will be in front of him.

On a side not, every year John Oxx has a good one he throws the punters off and no one says a word. Bolger gets slaughtered for the same thing....go figure.....
 
Last edited:
I must live in a different world.

I think Oxx is the best trainer in Europe but normal circunstances the Obrien horses run less fitter than Oxx ones in the first trial.

FAG is lightlier races, is unbeaten, was having a penalty and has a better pedigree for 12f, so I think FAG will beat the Aga horse on sunday and more easily and will leave him for dead in June at Epsom.


For me, the only danger at the moment for FAG is Crowded House if winning impressively the Dante,
 
sunybay said:
I must live in a different world.

I think Oxx is the best trainer in Europe but normal circunstances the Obrien horses run less fitter than Oxx ones in the first trial.

FAG is lightlier races, is unbeaten, was having a penalty and has a better pedigree for 12f, so I think FAG will beat the Aga horse on sunday and more easily and will leave him for dead in June at Epsom.


For me, the only danger at the moment for FAG is Crowded House if winning impressively the Dante,
Click to expand...

I'm not questioning his training ability. Oxx always brings his Derby horses on slowly.Usually the O'Brien horses have big bellies on their first run. Fag did not and either did O'Briens maiden winner on the same day. Sunday will tell a tale.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I backed up with hard cash what I said in the Guineas thread: anyone who fancied GA for the Guineas has to back it for the Derby, which I did on Saturday morning.
Click to expand...

Until he shows me anything to the contrary I'm very sweet on Fame And Glory. This colt looks so right to me for the Derby.

Having said that I followed DO's advice and took out some insurance on GA for the Derby ahead of the Guineas. It's difficult to see how this colt won't be thereabouts.

I think the market has it wrong at the moment. I wouldn't think STS will be as effective at the trip as these two or indeed others (and that's from someone who was quite sweet on STS in the Guineas).
 
Sheikh said:
The race was also run to suit Fag where I believe Mourayan was just getting an educational.
Click to expand...

We all see different things. I just thought Mourayan looked very short of pace which resulted in him losing his position turning in. A strong gallop and 12f will suit him but he didn't look like a potential Derby winner to me in what promises to be a good year.
 
gus said:
We all see different things. I just thought Mourayan looked very short of pace which resulted in him losing his position turning in. A strong gallop and 12f will suit him but he didn't look like a potential Derby winner to me in what promises to be a good year.
Click to expand...

Just had another look and a few more squids on win and place. Hopeing to see a sharper animal on Sunday.
 
Black Bear Island a non runner in the Italian Derby on Saturday.
Probably the Dante next for him and Freemantle.
 
I would like to see BBI run in the Derrinstown, then we can find out how good he is.
 
Have to say I'm amazed at how little credit Golden Sword received for his Chester Vase win and thing he is massively overpriced at 40/1. We've got a guaranteed stayer with plenty of pace who has proved that by whizzing round Chester that Epsom will give him few problems. Okay so Murtagh should have finished closer but I can't have it that Masterofthehorse would definitely of beaten him. Really like the way Golden Sword picked up going into the bend and took 4/5 lengths out of Sight Unseen and Too Much Trouble as if they were stoof still. The time very much suggests that Golden Sword didn't steal the race and I really think he should be more like a 16/1 shot for Epsom.
 
davidjohnson said:
Have to say I'm amazed at how little credit Golden Sword received for his Chester Vase win and thing he is massively overpriced at 40/1. We've got a guaranteed stayer with plenty of pace who has proved that by whizzing round Chester that Epsom will give him few problems. Okay so Murtagh should have finished closer but I can't have it that Masterofthehorse would definitely of beaten him. Really like the way Golden Sword picked up going into the bend and took 4/5 lengths out of Sight Unseen and Too Much Trouble as if they were stoof still. The time very much suggests that Golden Sword didn't steal the race and I really think he should be more like a 16/1 shot for Epsom.
Click to expand...

I sort of know what you mean. The winner is obviously decent. However, as in previous seasons O’Brien’s charges are coming on a bundle for their first run of the season. The majority of those making their seasonal reappearance are getting beaten, but then typically following up with a win.

So you can see what they’ve done. Gone hell for leather with the supposed pacemaker to make it a test and give the other one a work out chasing him home. I noticed a few shrewdies must have had a bet as he came in to 20s before drifting out again.

Today this looks like a pointer for Drumbeat and is hopefully not a negative for Frozen Fire (who I otherwise fancy).
 
Last edited:
Dante Entries:

Alwaary (USA) 3.c
Black Bear Island
Crowded House 3.c
Free Agent 3.c
Freemantle 3.c
Glass Harmonium (IRE) 3.c
Kite Wood (IRE) 3.c
Malibu Bay
Monitor Closely (IRE) 3.c
Native Ruler 3.c
Nehaam 3.c
Redwood 3.c
Rockhampton (IRE) 3.c
Sans Frontieres (IRE) 3.c
Stately Home (IRE) 3.c
 
Galileo said:
Dante Entries:

Alwaary (USA) 3.c
Black Bear Island
Crowded House 3.c
Free Agent 3.c
Freemantle 3.c
Glass Harmonium (IRE) 3.c
Kite Wood (IRE) 3.c
Malibu Bay
Monitor Closely (IRE) 3.c
Native Ruler 3.c
Nehaam 3.c
Redwood 3.c
Rockhampton (IRE) 3.c
Sans Frontieres (IRE) 3.c
Stately Home (IRE) 3.c
Click to expand...


This should tell us something if the significant ones line up.
 
Crowded House has been installed as 6/4 favourite with Ladbrokes for the totesport.com Dante Stakes at York on Thursday.
Brian Meehan's Racing Post Trophy winner was a long-time ante-post favourite for the Ivestec Derby before being replaced at the head of the market by 2000 Guineas winner Sea The Stars.
Freemantle, rumoured to be high among Aidan O'Brien's pecking order for Epsom, is 5/1 second favourite ahead of Godolphin representative Kite Wood (6/1).
Redwood (7/1) and Nehaam (10/1) are other leading fances among the 15 six-day acceptors.
David Williams of Ladbrokes said: "Crowded House was always going to set the market with his Doncaster win last term coupled with bullish reports from the Meeham camp. It'll be fascinating to see if anything else emerges as a realistic challenger to him over the weekend."
 
Back
Top