The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Grey said:
From today's Irish Times:
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That's a good quote Grey. Oxx knows the time of day. You would need a colt of STS's class that was also able to stay to have a race with this one. STS may be found slightly lacking on the latter.
 
LBM said:
I backed f&g for the Derby at average odds of 37.75
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Average odds! Well done. Were you able to get much on at that price?

I've never really bothered with Betfair, prefering to try to time my ante-post portfolio for large stakes. But I can see how this could be used to great effect for topping up.
 
Thanks Gal, I was lucky I suposse.
I was really impressed with him in Fr last year and he looked really well that day at the curragh gallops, when everyone was focussing on AOA and BBI. I knew he was probably not a 37/1 shot and I took the risk.
Do you know if he has had any health issues in the past?
I somehow find weird hearing both Magnier and Heffernan mentioning "keeping him healthy" until the Derby.
 
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Galileo said:
Great thanks Warbler, unlikely Epsom will ride any faster than that.

When I saw Summit Surge win I knew it had to be better than just good.
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I thought the concensus on here was that times aren't very good for predicting the going..you seem happy to accept them there Gal

no wonder I don't where I am on here..one day times can predict the going..next day they can't...talk about making it fit

:whistle:
 
LBM said:
Thanks Gal, I was lucky I suposse.
I was really impressed with him in Fr last year and he looked really well that day at the curragh gallops, when everyone was focussing on AOA and BBI. I knew he was probably not a 37/1 shot and I took the risk.
Do you know if he has had any health issues in the past?
I somehow find weird hearing both Magnier and Hefferman mentioning "keeping him healthy" until the Derby.
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...just a figure of speech. You're unlikely to see a healthier looking animal all season.
 
I only had 75 euros on him Steve. I took anything available from 34 to 46. I would have taken more if available, but I also had backed Ch at 16/1 and I was looking for some kind of value rather than a firm believe.
 
LBM said:
I only had 75 euros on him Steve. I took anything available from 34 to 46. I would have taken more if available, but I also had backed Ch at 16/1 and I was looking for some kind of value rather than a firm believe.
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Quite so... very fancy prices nevertheless. I'm very envious and annoyed at myself for not doing something similar.
 
Hamm said:
Ah come on! Now, you're really exaggerating to fit your selection!
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Surely he exudes health? From the first time I saw him I was struck with how full of energy he was. His condition and gleaming coat at the weekend (admittedly through the screen) were very apparent I thought.

His wellbeing and the way he does everything so easily originally led me to the selection rather than the other way round. Everything he has done since has simply confirmed my view of him.

If he is unwell I'd be astonished.
 
EC or anyone else for that matter

What did you make of the times for the Derby and Oaks trials at Lingfield on Saturday. Both look 'poor' times despite not being run at pedestrian gallops. I just wonder if the starts were in the wrong place for them or something.
 
Interesting one David.

Comparing it to last year's card, the two 7f races were run in very similar times - barely a length difference either way.

The two 10f races were significantly faster this year, by around 10-12 lengths.

But the two Derby trials were between 5 and 7.5 lengths slower this year.
 
Videos on ATR would suggest that they started in the same place as last year. Maybe just slow races?
 
This is shaping up to be one hell of a Derby . If a horse wins the Dante in style say Crowded House it will look very competitive .

As impressive as Fame and Glory was I got the feeling that Mourayan was believed to have run below par . I still feel that if STS stays he will have too much toe for Fame and Glory . In a normal year I don't think I would be looking beyond a horse with F & G's credentials but this is not a normal year I reckon.
 
Regardless of Mourayan, it's clear to see F&G's progression via Fergus McIver and Hail Caesar. Terribly kind of them to re-run the Ballysax a month later, really :)

I'm still leaning towards Sea The Stars too, but it'll be my first Derby and I can't bloody wait. Just hope they all get there safe.
 
On a line through Hail Caesar Mourayan has virutally run to the pound. Mourayan is a lazy bugger who was made to look as if he ran below par based on the decent pace on a sound surface and a hugely talented rival.
 
Warbler said:
Might be some evidence of a tailwind in the back straight and headwind in the home straight, as the faster times were set at the mid distances, and slowest over shorter, but two of the 7 races broke standard, whilst two others adjust slow enough for me to think there's a pace, rather than ground issue
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Both the 6f 2yo maiden and the 1000 Guineas trial were run at moderate gallops, Warbler.

Really hope Crowded House wins the Dante convincingly.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Quite a general turnaround in perception from the apparent pre-Guineas "this lot are crap" consensus...
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yeh funny isn't it ;)

The thing that struck me about Mourayan was that physically and performance wise there was no improvement what so ever...strange one:blink:
 
That's why some races are omitted from the varaince calculation. In this case the 2yo auction maiden and the Gp3 won by Summit Surge were obviously slow. The Guineas trial was actually quicker than the Gp3, and only a tenth slower than the 0-105
 
10 in the Dante - Freemantle, Crowded House, Black Bear Island, Native Ruler, Redwood, Kite Wood, Monitor Closely, Sans Frontieres, Nehamm and Glass Harmonium.
 
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